Missed me?

Hey Guys! Missed me? Probably not but i'm back. I decided to put my writing career on halt for awhile. It was a fun experience but trading has to be first priority and it was to time consuming to be able to do both. I usually trade all of the tennis matches during a day. This doesn't mean I put in any money in them but I do give myself opportunities to find good value. Somedays are super slow and somedays are very lucrative.

I'm pretty happy though season is coming to an end. Its been a long season and alot of matches and markets. In November I'm planning a trip to Dubai and then im probably gonna go a couple of weeks to South America.

The Asia swing is on its way and I actually like waking up this early. Its nice to brew some coffe and grind away and have the afternoon and evening off.

Here is one play for today. Lay Errani, and lay again and again if Errani goes off to a good start.

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

forzafabio.se

Hey!

It was sometime ago i wrote here. Ive been really busy asusual. I got some bad news if you liked reading this blog and mayby getting some tips.

I got this opportunity to write for one of the biggest tennis websites in sweden. Problably the biggest one. Its called forzafabio.se and its ofcourse written in swedish. I will be covering the WTA-tour. So far i have only been writing for a couple of days but its really fun and challenging.

So I just wanted to let you know that for now on i'll put this blog on hold, definately. I still use twitter and I do comment the markets from time to time. Stop by and say hello or have a question. If I got time ill try to answer it for you.

Stay sharp!

/Sammy

Late Night Tennis

So it was a while since i wrote anything about tennis. Im sitting here watching Isner - Anderson now in Atlanta. Apperently there have only been 10 break between these gents in the 208 games they played before. As I write this . You can add another 19 games to that...  soon 20...

Båstad Center Court

Anyways. So what have I been upto lately? I have been trading asusual. But my girlfriend has her holidays now so I have spent alot of time with her also. So my workload haven't been up to standards so to say. Or atleast what it normally is. We went to see Serena incinerate Johanna Larsson in the Womens Final in Båstad. I'd never go if I hadn't gotten the tickets for free. Sure it was a nice day. But womens tennis is kind of dull to be honest.

So we will have A.Radwanska against Cibulkova playing in Stanford. I cant really see any value in these odds. If I was going to do anything initially id start with a lay of Radwanska and see how it goes. Im just going to wait and see how it all evolves.

Isner - Anderson goes into a 3d set. Could get intresting....

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Summer!

I'm still here... But I have to put blogging on hold for a week or two. There is so much going on that I almost dont have time for anything except trading and doing various life things

But i'll be back before you know it with some thoughts about the the markets and upcoming matches

I hope you are doing good in the markets!

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Week 28 - Back to clay

Wimbledon is over and we will have tennis in mainly europe. The men have a grass tournament in Newport USA also this week.

ATP Båstad

As I'm living in Sweden i'll probably go to ATP Båstad this week. I have tickets for wednesday but when I checked the weather yesterday i'm not 100% sure i'll be going. It's abit of a drive for me so if there is any chances of rain i'm going to be home and work instead.

ATP Newport

Week after a Grand Slam, there is various motivational issues with players. Its hard to guess but in general alot of wierd upsets usually happens. Which usually generates swingy matches with lower quality players that hasn't rock solid game

Today monday is kind of a slow start of the week with alot of qualifying matches still to be played. Tomorrow the action really picks up.

But today I havn't given the qualifying matches any focus only the main draw matches.

• In Newport I find Mannarino value against Blake (reverse the odds), Isners odds is also very generous should be around 1.25-1.33 to me. 
• In Germany (Stuttgart), Montanes is abit undervalued against Klizan not alot but around 5%.
• Torro-flor should be abit lower but 1.22 is not back-able so will wait and try to get a higher price.
• Arruabarrena has good value against Larsson.
• I might also lay Halep for trading purposes today.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon Mens Semi's

So it's time for the boys to compete for the 2 spots in the final.

First up is Djokovic-Del Potro today @ 14.00 CET. Djokovic is a healthy favorite @ 1.15 and I think market has done a good job pricing this match.

In the contest between Janowicz-Murray I find Murrays price @ 1.22 abit low. (80%). 1.35 looks more correct (~73%) to me.

I'm gonna wait for in-play and to find some value. Lets move on to the outrights market Djokovic is @ 1.75 , Murray @ 3 , Del Potro @ 17 , Janowicz @ 24

Just for fun I'm going to put odds on possible future finals. Having the outrights market in mind I think the market will have these odds:

Djokovic (1.60) - Murray (2.5).... Reasonable odds but I think ~1.80-1.90 for Djokovic is more reasonable.

Djokovic (1.10) - Janowicz (11) .... More correct odds should be around 1.22.

Murray (1.22) - Del Potro (5.2) ..... Market might put Murray lower but I think 1.30 would be more correct in this final.

And finally chocker final

Janowicz (2.20) - Del Potro (1.8) ... The public would favor Del Potro and consider ranking and so on but for me i'd reverse the odds and I'd have Janowicz as the favorite.

Alot of stuff could happen that would ofcourse change the possibilities of various outcomes. eg. injuries etc.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon Womens Semi's

First of all I want to say some words about the outrights market. Where the girl in super form Lisicki is @ 2.36 as I write this. It's very off for me. 1.74 against radwanska means she has to be atleast 1.40 favorite in the next match, for it being a breakeven proposition. 1.74*1.38 = 2.40


When i run simulations in possible future matchups between Lisicki - Bartoli & Lisicki - Flipkens. I have Lisicki as a ~1.80 favorite (1.70-1.90) against both of them.

This gives us 1.74*1.80 = 3.13

But then you might think "But Sammy haven't you forgot something? How about todays matchup against A.Radwanska?" And you are totally right. Today Lisicki's odds @ 1.75 is fine. I'd lean abit more towards even money than going the other way.

But we will start the afternoon with Bartoli against Flipkens. Market has Bartoli as a ~58% favorite at the moment but for me this is wrong. I think about ~67% (1.50) is more correct.

Just watching the outrights market who ever wins the semi between Bartoli & Flipkens will be under-valued in the final.

Who you got?

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon Mens Quarters

Mens quarters today @ 14.00 CET. And we have exiting matches to look forward to.

Kubot

First off im laying both super favorites, Murray & Djokovic for trading value. I think they are abit to low both of them but especially Murray. They will probably go thru to the semis both of them. But if they lost a set or two wouldn't surprise me at all.

I don't know why Del Potro is drifting... is it beacuse of his knee injury? Even money or Del Potro small favorite is more correct in my world. Should be a very entertaining match to trade.

In the all polish affair between Kubot and Janowicz. I think Janowicz's odds is low. I think 1.50-1.60 would be more viable odds.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon - Womens Quarters

It's quarters time for the ladies and they will start abit later now 14.00 CET. (13 GMT).

Todays matches are:

Lisicki in tears of joy after winning against S.Williams

A.Radwanska - Na Li: I cant really find any value in these odds and I wont take a position from start. If I had to pick a winner i'd say Na Li.

Lisicki - Kanepi: Market has Lisicki as a favorite. Rightfully so. But her pricing @ 1.37 is to low. 1.60-1.75 would be a much better pricing. I'm definately going to lay Lisicki and continue to trade in-play.

Petra Kvitova

Kvitova - Flipkens: I like flipkens odds here. Stats run much closer and Kvitova have been really hot or cold during wimbledon. Everytime I see Kvitova play I can't understand how its even remotely possible that they allow her to keep her belly. She is top 8 in the world and not even fit. I mean how good could she be if she was super fit? It's beyond my understanding.... its like thinking about space. Your brain malfunctions eventually.

This one could be a close one and a very good match to trade.

Stephens - Bartoli: Im on Bartoli this match. And i think her odds is very generous. I'd say 1.55-1.60 on Bartoli is much more correct.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon Week 2 - Monday

Kaia Kanepi

Have been busy this weekend. A good friend had his 30 years birthday this saturday. It was a very good party abit to good mayby.

For todays matches I find value in: Flipkens, Pironkova, Bartoli, Kanepi (abit uncertain), Mannarino, Berdysch.

Laying both Murray & Djokovic for trading purposes.

Stay Sharp!