Day 6 Roland Garros

Chardy

Some matches left from yesterday... So have a look at yesterdays post for some thoughts about them.

Today i feel markets is much more effecient in their odds for the 3d round matches today. But we have still lots of intresting matches from postponed from yesterday.

But upset for today is probably Chardy against Tsonga. I find 1.25 very very low. Chardy has the game to beat all these big favorites, and has proven it in the past.

I think there is some value in Anderson today aswell, not much but 5-6%.

Thats about it in the mens for todays Round 3 matches.

For the womens i think Cetkovska is under-valued against Vinci. Her comeback have been ok. I think her game is up to par beacuse recent results do indicate that. Should be much closer in odds.

Puig

Then we have the young gun Puig against CSN. Could easily be an upset here, atleast it could be very swingy which is great.

Matches is about to start. GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 5 Roland Garros

Bouchard

Some chances for rain delay today, I've heard 30-60% so its pretty likely. Latest news is that we will get a couple of hours of play in now

There should be alot of opportunities today for good trading today.

Again today Schmiedlova have great value against hampton today. Aswell is King against Stephens. Kvitova & Schiavone is giving us value aswell.

Beck

Li-MattekSands will probably be a much closer contest than the odds predict. Im going to lay, lay, lay. hedge green. Then lay green and see what happens. Thats the plan anyways. If Li destroys Mattek i'll just take it on the chin.

Backing Stosur if she starts bad against Mladenovic. Id like 1.70-1.80ish something. first. If Mladen takes first set. I'll have to start trading some otherwise potential losses will get out of hand.

Sock

Shvedova - Ormachea. Dan @ tennisratings have Shvedova at pre-matches which is alright. I dont think this will be a fist pump win. It could be much more drama. And why missout on a potential swingy match.

Laying the huge favs in the womens matches today. Both Sharapova and Azarenka. Bouchard and Beck probably wont upset but we could get some swings here with cheap lays.

There are alot of flaws in market today in the mens bracket but I dont have time to write any more. But if I have to write one. I'd say Jack Sock to make it really hard on Haas. Easy multiple lays.

 GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 4 Roland Garros

So i got some time over here beacuse its ony ATP matches going on at the moment. Alot of WTA matches was postponed to today due to the rain yesterday.

Schmiedlova beat Wickmayer in a 3 setter. Wickmayer dictating play alot but at the cost of alot of UE's which cost her the match basically.

Johanna Larsson (Jo-Lo)

Matches coming up today is the swede (yay!) Larsson which i think have a good chance of beating Cirstea. Probably ranking and name that has made its mark on the starting price. Should be much more close to evens in my world.

For the same reasons i find Puig's nice as she takes on Keys in the young gun battle for today.

Shelby Rogers

Im abit curious to see what Shelby Rogers can do to hurt Suarez-Navarro. If there is gonna be a big upset for today i think this is it. I've already layed CSN but its abit of an gamble.

There are some ridicolous prices on the Mens matches. Especially after first set. For example was Seppi trading 1.10 after winning first set (SP 1.40) Kavcic lost first set 6-0 though. But still its only 1-0 to Seppi in sets. Its best of 5 sets not 3 sets. Seems like market tend to forget that alot. I have Kavcic as undervalued in that match so it was pretty easy lay for me. Good that he could make it competetive aswell.

Seems like WTA matches is going to get underway soon.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 3 - Roland Garros

30 min to kick-off, intresting matches today aswell.

Mens:

Vesely

Im going to lay these guys today. Kohlschreiber, Wawrinka, Djokovic, Verdasco. For trading purposes.

Its gonna be intresting to watch Vesely, He is a youngster that has been a beast on the futures & challangers. His first ATP match and Grand Slam might be to much for him but I think he will put up a good fight. What does he have to loose? 

Hanescu to beat Tomic. But i will look for better odds in-play.

Womens: Hard to make good predictions today on alot of matches due to alot of players dont have enough data to make good assumptions. But there are a few.

Govortsova to beat Bartoli isn't bad. This match can be an really epic one. Govortsova tends to have big problems closing out matches. Seems like she looses focus when she has a healthy lead.

Dont be suprised in a Schmiedlova upset, beating Wickmayer.

Schmiedlova

I like Jankovic aswell but a bit higher odds would be much nicer.  Same goes for Duque Marino & Peng.

Davis to beat Mladenovic. She had problems against big serving Hradecka last week. Mladenovic has a big one aswell which is the only negative.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 2 Roland Garros

I was supposed to write something about todays matches. But i woke up really late due to the fact I went to bed 03.30 in the night.

I was abit dissapointed at my performance today at the markets. You might think I did have a bad day. On the contrary really, money wise it was ok. But I usually have a plan for every single match I trade. Not in super detail but if X happens i'll do Y basically. And as the match progresses X & Y changes ofcourse. But when there is so many matches going on at the same time as it where today and there is good liqudity and market maker at every single one of them. There is to much to choose from. So i end up doing nothing instead of executing. I don't know if this makes any sense but i was really tilted for a while cause i couldn't focus.

So tomorrow i'll just make a decision to just have specific chosen matches open. (I usually have all markets open that is running just for monitor purpose. Hence the information overload.)

Enough about that rambling.... Today Haase (or #hahahahaase in the twitter world) finally ended his record tiebreak loosing streak. "Hopefully I'm not going to lose another 17 in a row"  

I have to look through tomorrows matches now. If it doesn't get to late I'll write down my top picks for tomorrow.

/Sammy

Latency

I cant really remember how it was last year at Roland Garros but result updates from today was not great. Basically you have to watch the market maker to know the score. Cause scoreboards are 10 seconds behind. Trading short term during this slam will be very very difficult. I didn't trade the whole session today i got in pretty late. But managed to get a healthy green on Williams vs U.Radwanska.

I did watch alot of other markets and yes it's very hard to get decent odds due to the latency but im going to work more on long term trades for this slam.

I'm pretty tired right now. I have gone through all of the round 1 matches now and there are some intresting matches tomorrow. From the top of my head i think Sijsling is super value. I like Navarros chances tomorrow against an inform Halep.

I will probably make some comments before matches starts tomorrow. Now its time for bed.

ZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzz

/Sammy

Happy mothersday!

Unlike the rest of the world. Here in sweden it's mothersday today. So i'm going to 2 different dinners. I'd rather stay home and trade Roland-Garros. But we will see if i might manage to get back in time for the late matches today.

GL @ the markets.

EDIT: Apparently bet365 doesnt broadcast during RG. Neither for UK or Swedish residents. If you come from a different country and can get the bet365 feed. Let me know, thanks.

Friday: Something wierd happened

This is a screenshot from Stephens-Peng yesterday. After Peng won the matchpoint. There was these huge amounts of free money still laying around until Betfair closed the market which lasted for atleast 30 seconds. I wasn't really sure what was going on. I thought about backing my whole exposure limit 20k but with no stream and not knowing what was really going on i couldnt stomach it. For me after first set market was really wierd. But I had some losses to recoupe which was nice.

I wasnt gonna do any predictions today but here is some..

Bouchard to beat Cornet, Kanepi to beat Lepchenko, Oprandi to beat Peng, Sijsling to beat Jarkko. Thats about it.. other than that odds looks pretty decent. Ohh almost forgot Vasselin to beat Montanes...

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Wednesday: The action continues

Another day, another dollar.... to me is the plan.

Brussels had another day of rain. Must be terrible to be a tournament director and there is nothing you can do about it. Hopefully we will get some action there today. Its kind of perfect that it has rained. I was abit worried about missing value in some matches due to the fact that it was supposed to run 5-6 matches at the same time during the day. But now when we are at round 16 of Strasbourg I think i will be able to catch pretty much all of it.

All plays for Brussels still stands from yesterday. So you just have to check yesterdays analysis for the matches in Brussel.

Todays matches:

Giorgi - Bouchard: Giorgi really crushed Bartoli. There was no stream from Bouchards win today so we can't say for sure how the ankle is but it seemed to be a fairly easy win from what the scoreboard was saying. (I followed the match point by point). So we have to assume it's alright. Predicted hold is very very low. We should expect breaks. This one on paper has the features for a very swing and good match to trade.

Tatishvili - Niculescu: Tatishvili won over Garcia which was abit of an upset yesterday. Think Garcia didn't play that match well strategic at all. Today she plays against Niculescu who won in a 3 setter against Erakovic. Market is about right here @ 1.34. I'll just trade this in-play if anything comes up.

Cornet - Linette: Havent seen Linette play so i dont know really what kind of player she is. But her small amount of clay stats is very impressive. Lay Cornet for sure. Epic break fest? Possibility high.

Rogers - Scheepers: Dont know what to think... I'll leave this for mayby some in-play trades.

Torro-Flor - Pennetta: Panetta haven't looked good at all lately. But today we have value on her against Torro-Flor. As the odds say i'm expecting a swingy match. If I had to make a bet only i'd stick my money on Pennetta. (data play)

Doi - Hsieh: I'll be laying Hsieh, first time they play eachother on clay. This is likley to be closer than their previous meetings.

Davis - Hradecka: Expect alot of holds. Hradecka didnt loose a single game on serve yesterday i think. Her game revolvs alot around her serve. Very hard to win against when she is on. Forecast is saying high number of holds for both players this match. There is a small value on Davis.

Larsson - Razzano: Value on Razzano, Looking to back her in play. She seems abit "french". (having a hard time closing out matches) eg. giving away games.

I havent crunched numbers for the mens matches today.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Murray withdraws from French Open

I wish him a speedy recovery, he usually offers great value in-play!