Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Happy New Year

Yes, today the calenders says there will be a new year tomorrow. The new tennis year has already started though and I've been trading some with various results (as always) but its a positive one that I should be semi happy with due to liquidity and turnover not being great.

For example the Marius Copil vs Sugita right now. There is huge amounts available but these belong to the market maker which use a huge spread currently. the turnover is pretty terrible aswell which makes it hard to find value odds.

Happy New Year & Stay Sharp!


Wednesday, December 25, 2013

Question from a reader

"Hi Sammy
I have one question to you - how to calculate where odds "should" move after first set.
Example, we have 2 players, both have 2,00 odds.
First player win set, odds "should" move to 1.33. How to calculate it?
Thanks, Adam."

Hi Adam!

First of all remember that the calculation only refers to 3 set matches.

So starting price is 2.00 for both players. Which equals 50% for both winning the match. And therefore a 50% chance of winning each set.

Season 2014 is just around the corner
Lets assume that Player A wins first set. Finally we have come to the million dollar question, how do we calculate his theoretical odds?

Lets calculate Player B's chances of winning the match. He needs to win 2 sets in order to win the match from a 0-1 set deficit. Which gives us 50%*50% = 25% (0.5*0.5=0.25)

Now we can easily get Player A's winning chances 100%-25% = 75% (1-0.25=0.75)

75% chance of winning the match equals 1.33 in odds (1/0.75=1.33)

Merry Christmas & Stay Sharp!


Wednesday, December 18, 2013


Hey Guys!

(I was just writing from the top of my head so it might seem like a lot of rambling)

As we all know tennis season ended a while ago and I have been doing basically nothing for soon one month. It was at first very awkward in a sense. Cause i didn't know what to do the first week, hence the fact that there was no matches going on and therefore nothing to trade.

Now I have been much better to relax in the fact that i do have holidays and can rest for the long season that is ahead of us.

So maybe its time to reflect on what happened in 2013. When i first started trading in february 2012, I kind of didn't know what to expect. Now almost 2 years later its kind of weird how fast time has gone and I was able to successfully learn how to earn a living trading tennis markets. 2013 was the best year financially for me ever in my career as a professional gambler or in any career that I have been in.

When i think back I can't really remember what happened during the year. Its like a big blur at least the first part of 2013. But April and May really got the wheels turning for me (for real) and they kept going for the rest of the year.

So what do I think about the markets this year. Well I think there is still loads of flaws in the market. Tennis is a really hard market to set perfect odds on due to the fact that an odds can be good in a trading perspective but in another time aspect be very bad in value for punting. And of course vice versa. There has been much more activity from the market makers in the second part of 2013 from my experience. Making the margins smaller for us traders due to the high liquidity and court side information.

On a personal development I gotten a bit stronger mentally to be able to trade with larger amounts without the brain totally jamming up. This has always been a big thing for me that I have struggled with to be able to handle risk. Its still an issue in a sense cause its holding me back from achieving greater results. But it's a double edged sword. Its hard to say maybe I wouldn't be in this position if i wasn't this risk conscious. I think its different for some people But in some cases I get very timid and therefor missing out on opportunities.

In the craftsmanship of trading tennis in a technical sense I think I'm kind of good maneuvering the market and "feeling it" and using it to my advantage.

My thoughts on 2014? I hope it will be great of course but who knows. Recent results says that it will probably go even better next year (would be kind of insane) but when I think about it I never feel to confident a lot of things can happen Its when you get comfortable you are the most vulnerable.

Enough rambling...

Merry christmas & Stay Sharp!

If you got questions. Leave it in comments section or send an e-mail.