Sunday, July 28, 2013

Late Night Tennis

So it was a while since i wrote anything about tennis. Im sitting here watching Isner - Anderson now in Atlanta. Apperently there have only been 10 break between these gents in the 208 games they played before. As I write this . You can add another 19 games to that...  soon 20...

Båstad Center Court
Anyways. So what have I been upto lately? I have been trading asusual. But my girlfriend has her holidays now so I have spent alot of time with her also. So my workload haven't been up to standards so to say. Or atleast what it normally is. We went to see Serena incinerate Johanna Larsson in the Womens Final in Båstad. I'd never go if I hadn't gotten the tickets for free. Sure it was a nice day. But womens tennis is kind of dull to be honest.

So we will have A.Radwanska against Cibulkova playing in Stanford. I cant really see any value in these odds. If I was going to do anything initially id start with a lay of Radwanska and see how it goes. Im just going to wait and see how it all evolves.

Isner - Anderson goes into a 3d set. Could get intresting....

Stay Sharp!


Tuesday, July 16, 2013


I'm still here... But I have to put blogging on hold for a week or two. There is so much going on that I almost dont have time for anything except trading and doing various life things

But i'll be back before you know it with some thoughts about the the markets and upcoming matches

I hope you are doing good in the markets!

Stay Sharp!


Monday, July 8, 2013

Week 28 - Back to clay

Wimbledon is over and we will have tennis in mainly europe. The men have a grass tournament in Newport USA also this week.

ATP Båstad
As I'm living in Sweden i'll probably go to ATP Båstad this week. I have tickets for wednesday but when I checked the weather yesterday i'm not 100% sure i'll be going. It's abit of a drive for me so if there is any chances of rain i'm going to be home and work instead.

ATP Newport
Week after a Grand Slam, there is various motivational issues with players. Its hard to guess but in general alot of wierd upsets usually happens. Which usually generates swingy matches with lower quality players that hasn't rock solid game

Today monday is kind of a slow start of the week with alot of qualifying matches still to be played. Tomorrow the action really picks up.

But today I havn't given the qualifying matches any focus only the main draw matches.
  • In Newport I find Mannarino value against Blake (reverse the odds), Isners odds is also very generous should be around 1.25-1.33 to me. 
  • In Germany (Stuttgart), Montanes is abit undervalued against Klizan not alot but around 5%.
  • Torro-flor should be abit lower but 1.22 is not back-able so will wait and try to get a higher price.
  • Arruabarrena has good value against Larsson.
  • I might also lay Halep for trading purposes today.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Friday, July 5, 2013

Wimbledon Mens Semi's

So it's time for the boys to compete for the 2 spots in the final.

First up is Djokovic-Del Potro today @ 14.00 CET. Djokovic is a healthy favorite @ 1.15 and I think market has done a good job pricing this match.

In the contest between Janowicz-Murray I find Murrays price @ 1.22 abit low. (80%). 1.35 looks more correct (~73%) to me.

I'm gonna wait for in-play and to find some value. Lets move on to the outrights market Djokovic is @ 1.75 , Murray @ 3 , Del Potro @ 17 , Janowicz @ 24

Just for fun I'm going to put odds on possible future finals. Having the outrights market in mind I think the market will have these odds:

Djokovic (1.60) - Murray (2.5).... Reasonable odds but I think ~1.80-1.90 for Djokovic is more reasonable.

Djokovic (1.10) - Janowicz (11) .... More correct odds should be around 1.22.

Murray (1.22) - Del Potro (5.2) ..... Market might put Murray lower but I think 1.30 would be more correct in this final.

And finally chocker final

Janowicz (2.20) - Del Potro (1.8) ... The public would favor Del Potro and consider ranking and so on but for me i'd reverse the odds and I'd have Janowicz as the favorite.

Alot of stuff could happen that would ofcourse change the possibilities of various outcomes. eg. injuries etc.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Thursday, July 4, 2013

Wimbledon Womens Semi's

First of all I want to say some words about the outrights market. Where the girl in super form Lisicki is @ 2.36 as I write this. It's very off for me. 1.74 against radwanska means she has to be atleast 1.40 favorite in the next match, for it being a breakeven proposition. 1.74*1.38 = 2.40

When i run simulations in possible future matchups between Lisicki - Bartoli & Lisicki - Flipkens. I have Lisicki as a ~1.80 favorite (1.70-1.90) against both of them.

This gives us 1.74*1.80 = 3.13

But then you might think "But Sammy haven't you forgot something? How about todays matchup against A.Radwanska?" And you are totally right. Today Lisicki's odds @ 1.75 is fine. I'd lean abit more towards even money than going the other way.

But we will start the afternoon with Bartoli against Flipkens. Market has Bartoli as a ~58% favorite at the moment but for me this is wrong. I think about ~67% (1.50) is more correct.

Just watching the outrights market who ever wins the semi between Bartoli & Flipkens will be under-valued in the final.

Who you got?

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Wimbledon Mens Quarters

Mens quarters today @ 14.00 CET. And we have exiting matches to look forward to.

First off im laying both super favorites, Murray & Djokovic for trading value. I think they are abit to low both of them but especially Murray. They will probably go thru to the semis both of them. But if they lost a set or two wouldn't surprise me at all.

I don't know why Del Potro is drifting... is it beacuse of his knee injury? Even money or Del Potro small favorite is more correct in my world. Should be a very entertaining match to trade.

In the all polish affair between Kubot and Janowicz. I think Janowicz's odds is low. I think 1.50-1.60 would be more viable odds.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Wimbledon - Womens Quarters

It's quarters time for the ladies and they will start abit later now 14.00 CET. (13 GMT).

Todays matches are:

Lisicki in tears of joy after winning against S.Williams
A.Radwanska - Na Li: I cant really find any value in these odds and I wont take a position from start. If I had to pick a winner i'd say Na Li.

Lisicki - Kanepi: Market has Lisicki as a favorite. Rightfully so. But her pricing @ 1.37 is to low. 1.60-1.75 would be a much better pricing. I'm definately going to lay Lisicki and continue to trade in-play.

Petra Kvitova
Kvitova - Flipkens: I like flipkens odds here. Stats run much closer and Kvitova have been really hot or cold during wimbledon. Everytime I see Kvitova play I can't understand how its even remotely possible that they allow her to keep her belly. She is top 8 in the world and not even fit. I mean how good could she be if she was super fit? It's beyond my understanding.... its like thinking about space. Your brain malfunctions eventually.

This one could be a close one and a very good match to trade.

Stephens - Bartoli: Im on Bartoli this match. And i think her odds is very generous. I'd say 1.55-1.60 on Bartoli is much more correct.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Monday, July 1, 2013

Wimbledon Week 2 - Monday

Kaia Kanepi
Have been busy this weekend. A good friend had his 30 years birthday this saturday. It was a very good party abit to good mayby.

For todays matches I find value in: Flipkens, Pironkova, Bartoli, Kanepi (abit uncertain), Mannarino, Berdysch.

Laying both Murray & Djokovic for trading purposes.

Stay Sharp!