Wednesday, December 25, 2013

Question from a reader

"Hi Sammy
I have one question to you - how to calculate where odds "should" move after first set.
Example, we have 2 players, both have 2,00 odds.
First player win set, odds "should" move to 1.33. How to calculate it?
Thanks, Adam."

Hi Adam!

First of all remember that the calculation only refers to 3 set matches.

So starting price is 2.00 for both players. Which equals 50% for both winning the match. And therefore a 50% chance of winning each set.

Season 2014 is just around the corner
Lets assume that Player A wins first set. Finally we have come to the million dollar question, how do we calculate his theoretical odds?

Lets calculate Player B's chances of winning the match. He needs to win 2 sets in order to win the match from a 0-1 set deficit. Which gives us 50%*50% = 25% (0.5*0.5=0.25)

Now we can easily get Player A's winning chances 100%-25% = 75% (1-0.25=0.75)

75% chance of winning the match equals 1.33 in odds (1/0.75=1.33)

Merry Christmas & Stay Sharp!



  1. Hello Sammy!
    When you are using this formel, are you using SP for Match odds or is it more correct to use the odds to win Set1?

    1. I use SP for matchodds. Thats the "guideline" for the rest of the match... They do make corrections though depending how first set ends. (6-0 or if its a close first set and so on..)

  2. This comment has been removed by the author.