The last trade

Hey guys!

This is most certainly the last post for this blog. I quit trading this late summer basically. Since about May the markets where not the same, atleast for me something had changed. I don't know if the merger with Paddy Power had something to do with it but I noticed something after May, that the markets wasn't the same. For some this maybe haven't been a problem but I didn't find spots as I used to. My motivation for trading sports pretty much dried up as well. So I felt it was time to do something else. 

You might wonder what my next adventure is? I've decided to try to learn a new game. And thats the stock exchange game. I've been grinding the Stockholm exchange roughly the last 2 months. My goal is to be breakeven for the first 6 months and anything better is just a bonus. Its a totally different beast the stock exchange compared to the sports exchange. But it's a lot of fun and I'm learning a lot of new things. We will see how it goes. =)

Anyways, thanks to everyone that read and commented this blog. I still think there is some good information in the blog for new traders to read. So just go through it you might find some interesting stuff. 

Thanks again and the best of luck!

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

One more day....

So this season is coming to an end... Tomorrow is the last day of play for the ATP-WTA-Challenger tour what I know of. Anyways I'm really looking forward to a nice couple of weeks of rest before next season starts. There is a International Premier League this winter in december that is new this year. I don't know much about it but i won't probably get involved.

Trading wise there isn't much to report. Last couple of months haven't really been that super. Not bad but I after the great spring and summer I probably got big expectations for the autumn and when reality doesn't match your expectations usually equals disappointsment. I shouldn't be disappointed cause this have been a great year for me. I haven't contacted bf for a PL statement for the year yet but I'm pretty curious to see the numbers.

Hmmm whatelse....I got an request from quantbubble.com of making an interview about the same topic that I made for bettingwebsites. I did respectfully decline though just that I feel that there isn't much for me to gain doing these interviews. The first one was a fun experience but I learned that there isn't much in it for me doing one so there is the reason for that.

So Im going to round this up now but Ill be back soon with a summary of the season of 2014 and some thoughts about it. Probably sooner than later. I don't really have a project this holiday to keep me occupied so Ill get super restless after just a couple of days rest. But ill try to stay away from trading to get really pumped for another long and grueling season of tennis

Stay sharp!

/Sammy

What "should" the set price be?

Hello! First of all I'd like to thank you guys for the kind words I have received about the Podcast. It was good to hear that you found it interesting. Cheers!

So I got a question on twitter regarding an old blogpost from last year about calculating what the odds should be after first set and how to calculate it. http://betfairtennistrader.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/question-from-reader.html

The question I got was instead of having the pre-match odds @ 2.00 for both players. "Lasse" wanted to know how the math is done for a 1.60-2.67 match. So I had a look at the card for the day to have an example. Tonight David Goffin plays versus Jerzy Janowicz. The odds on betfair when I write this is now @ 1.65-2.54 which is close to what we want to calculate here. To make it easy we use "Lasse's" prices.

So this is basic probability calculations and in theory what the price "should" be after first set. You have always consider if the match was rightfully priced from the beginning and what is happening during the first set.

Anyways, here goes...

Lets start to look at what the market is giving us for probability for each player winning the match.

David Goffin (favorite): 1.60 -> 1/1.60= 63% (0.63) - So the favorite is priced to have a 63% chance of winning the match. Now its easy to calculate the chances for the underdog.

Jerzy Janowicz (underdog): 100%-63% = 37% (0.37)

So we assume that each player have the same chance of winning a set, and now that we have probabilities for winning the match its pretty easy to get the theoretical set prices for both players. This is probably where the "mindf*ck" part comes into it but its easy when you know how to do it. Ill skip the probability mumbojumbo and just go straight into how to calculate it.

Lets assume that Goffin wins first set. To calculate his set price, we calculate Janowicz chances of winning the match first from being behind a set. This means what are Janowicz chances of winning two straight sets.

37%*37% (0.37*0.37) = 0.1367 = 13.7%

If we subtract 13.7% from 100% -> 86.3% (0.863) (This is Goffins chance of winning the match after he won first set)

And to get this into odds form -> 1/0.863 = 1.16

Lets see if you can get Jerzy Janowicz theoretical set prices if he wins first set! I think you can do it! =)

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Night Watch

When I checked the schedule for this weeks tennis I was pleased that there is basically nothing until the afternoon. Which means I have loads of time to get stuff done around the house and small projects. Flipside is everyone around me works when I don't and I work when they don't. Luckily this isn't the case for along period. Turning the sleeping schedule is somewhat harder these days then it was when I was younger. I get much more tired now and usually need more rest to feel refreshed again. 

I got an request from David @ bettingwebsites.org to be in an interview for his Betcast podcast. You can find his other programs on itunes where he discusses different topics with well known traders from social medias and such.

I was a bit hesitant about being on the show at first cause I really don't have anything to gain except from the experience of being interviewed which is really fun and challenging (making a fool out of myself) due to english not being my native language. All the other guys that have been on the show all have some type of service that they run and get "free" publicity doing this. What David has suggested is to do an interview about the experience I've had of transitioning from poker to trading sports. We will se how it goes....

If there is anything you'd like me to discuss in the podcast let me know and I'll see what I can do about it.

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

World Cup and stuff...

I have never attended a big football event ever. But if there where a place i'd like to go it would be Brazil and not only to watch football. Always been a dream for me to go there and hopefully one day i'll be able to go there. Always sad when your country doesn't qualify cause it adds that extra tension to the tournament. They are running some specials here from the magical 1994 World Cup when Sweden managed to get bronze medal. I can still remember being a kid sitting 1 inch from the telly during the quarterfinal against rumania and shitting my pants with excitement. Its hard to grasp but it was 20 years ago.... TWENTY. Ohhhh my time flies.

As stated before i'll be enjoying this WC from the telly. Well I actually don't have a TV. Or I have a TV but no receiver. I do run a appleTV so I can stream stuff from my laptop but thats basically it. There is so much shit on TV in general that I haven't bothered to get any channels for it. Its for these occasions though that i'd really like to be able to watch the games from the comfort of the sofa.

Tradingwise the World Cup shouldn't interfere with the tennis due to time difference. And the tour being in Europe at the moment. I can't really remember if the European 

Championship 2 years ago made any impact on the liquidity which is my biggest concern.

French Open was for me not great at all. I found it very very difficult to handle the extreme latency against the market maker which caught me a lot. I did turn a profit though, not what I probably have set in mind going into the tournament. I tend to not have any expectations, but after a good US open and a decent Australian Open, I was therefor a bit disappointed. 

Having expectations usually just sets you up for dissapointments so its better to not expect anything than the unexpected really. Cause life never turnsout like you thought it would and this goes for gambling as well. Just work super hard on whatever you want to achieve and be humble. Eventually good things will happen.

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Le Scoreboard Terrible

Roland Garros is underway if you have missed it! Doubt it... =)

Been a couple of hectic days to start off the tournament. With 14 matches going on at the same time its hard to choose whichones to focus on.Today Wednesday is a bit diffrent though with double matches starting so we have (only) 7 singles matches going on which is graspable (is this a even a word?). The doubles matches usually have no liquidity at all this early in the tournament.

So what about the blog title? I cant really remember that the scoreboards being this shitty last year? Didnt we have streams aswell? The slamtracker usually is pretty decent but this year its not up to standards. Never the less its really hard to make good decisions when sometimes the scoreboard is 2 balls behind the market. When its 1 ball behind, you can see on the market who won the ball. But more than that it, really really gets tough. Courtsiders are cleaning up, de luxe.

Matosevic finally one a singles main draw match in a grand slam (14 tries). This is how happy he got!

Matches will start in about an hour so Im gonna go out and cut the lawn before we start the days work.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Great month!

Hey Guys! 

After a not so great March I can say the opposite of April which have been great. And finally you can feel that the summer is around the corner as well. Much brighter days and temperatures around 15 degrees celsius. So I have spent a fair bit of time in the garden which I find very pleasant. In other words: For a change I'm not sitting infront of the computer and therefore getting the feeling of creating something that you actually can see and touch.

Finally I've decided to take a holiday in July. I booked tickets to Nice, France in July. The plan is to rent a car and roam around @ the riviera (St. Tropez, Antibes, Canne, Monte Carlo) and maybe take a ride into Italy. If you have any cool tips for activities i'd appreciate it.

Other than that there isn't much cool to report...

The P/L for April:

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Let it rain...

Last blog post I was talking about going to Mexico this year aswell. I was actually going and started to look for flights. But the flights from gothenburg airport to cancun had already stopped for the season?!?!?!! What to do...

The WTA tournament in Kuala Lumpur equals rain delays. This is the third time i've traded this event and it has been raining every single time. Mayby its time to re-schedule that one? Seems abit off to have it between an america swing moving towards europe and the clay season.

Ohh well. The month in USA was not that great for me. Horrible tv/scoreboard delays for 4 week straight basically. Market maker/Courtsider being ahead 7-8+ seconds made it really hard to trade. But it seems pointless to complain about. Cause I cant really see there will be any changes from the companys / ATP / WTA about the score update.

The delay for us normal people is very different from week to week. Before I start trading a match I usually get a feel for how long time between the score updates and the market maker change their odds. Its pretty crucial if you have different positions on the market and not getting caught. You kind of get a feel for how long a ball take to play. Sometimes there are courtsiders that is not involved or put odds out on the market every single ball. They wait for big points that moves alot like breakpoints and such before they make a move. This is abit harder to assess though, cause they showup pretty much at anytime. Sometimes these guys sometimes doesnt really know what the odds should be the next point and can offer good value a resonable amount of the time actually. Usually they also use bigger stakes which is nice cause you can take a bigger position.

Anyways, seems I could have been sleeping instead of watching the rain pour in Kuala Lumpur. But there is a heavy load of matches today. With the WTA and ATP done for the day a massive amount of Challanger matches will be playing which is great. I have been trading the challangers when there is money on them and I find them very amusing at times. There is a reason that these guys havent reached ATP level. And alot has to do with consistency and mental strength. From my short experience with the chally tour is that there is alot of big comebacks and swingy matches that makes them great for trading. Often very good TV coverage.

To finish off. The biggest missclick of the year from someone happened last week I think. Cant remember the match but here is the graph.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Tour moves on...

Pretty dramatical finish we had to the mens final. Nadal taking a trainer. Wawrinka choking in third set. Market was pretty spooked during 2nd and 3d set.

Pretty much everytime a big event is over I feel a big relief that it's over. Usually this has to do with the wierd working hours. So I'm pretty happy that the tour is taking a turn now and moving towards america with some stops here in europe before.

I don't know about you guys but my latency to the AUS wallet/markets is usually around 300-400 milliseconds which is kind of horrible. I usually dont get caught by snipers but happened a few times during these couple of weeks they where in the pacific area. So that is also nice to be working with a normal latency with a ping of 50ish...

This week we have alot of WTA action from Paris & Pattaya. The ATP tour is on hold for some Davis Cup to get underway this weekend. So there will be plenty of matches to grind this week aswell!


Got a nice e-mail from Betfair the other day. Basically said: Congratulations, now we are gonna grab an extra 1.5% from your pockets. For us that does not live in UK, Australia, Italy, Gibraltar. They have increased the commission to 6.5% from 5%. Cheers Betfair!

I understand them. They are in a situation that its possible for them to milk their costumers cause there isn't any competition. I would probably do the same if I where in their shoes. But I must say that I really wish/hope their greedy business model someday goes down in flames... =)

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Halfway thru Aussie Open

Yes we're almost a week into the first grand slam and I had a really good start to the week. But been struggling last couple of days to find any decent value. I'm really struggling with the high liqudity markets. Hard to get any really good value odds due to market maker having no spread at all basically and they pretty much always are infront of the queue with their speed (courtside info). Which is super annoying. Would be way more easy to make money if we where trading on the same terms. But it is what it is....

So I often "zoneout" in these circumstances. Which is not good obviously. But I'm working on it. I think basically I dont trust my strategies or theories in high liquid markets. Which makes me doubt myself alot and therefor not trade aswell.

The sultan @ centercourttrading have recommended a book "trading from your gut" which i picked up the other day. I must say it was a good read. And I think you can pickup alot from it. For you that have read it I find myself being a "left brain" person that are struggling with trusting my instincts and intuition. So I found it quite intresting really.


Much better start to this season. I remember being stuck about 2-3k at this point last season...


Stephane Robert the french lucky looser have made it to the 4th round and you can read a pretty amusing interview here. http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/news/interviews/2014-01-18/201401181390025203272.html

Now its time to get back to the markets. The last matches for the day starts in a few mintues.

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Aussie Open 2014

Hey!

So if your remotely interested in tennis you probably know that on monday this seasons first grand slam will be underway. So there will be plenty of matches to trade which is always nice.

Last week was pretty decent and unlike last year I had a more cautious approach to the season start than last year where I was very eager to make bank and got myself into a huge hole in the first few weeks. Last year I posted a $ 2k profit for january which is not great. (its not bad, but hear me out)

For me personally I think winning on average less than $5k a month is not an option. Then you are probably better off having a normal job and trading part-time. Due to the various factors like social security and pension. I mean being a professional sports trader or any type of gambler is cool and all but when you are at my age (30-ish) you have to take the future a lot more into consideration. Like pension and security like I mentioned before. If you are in your 20's i think that is not as big of a problem and you should probably have much bigger risk calculated just because time is not a factor in that case.

I don't know about you guys, what is your thoughts about this topic?

AO 2014 is around the corner, are your ready?

Tonight I'm taking a day off and recharging my batteries for the 10 days straight work that is ahead of me. My plan is to go to bed @ 9.00 pm and wake up @ 3-4 am and taking a nap in the afternoon. Pacific time is really the worst of them all.

Tomorrow I'll try to make some preparations and have a look at the draw and try to find some value in the outrights markets. If I find something cool I'll let you know tomorrow. Ok, until then have a good evening and stay sharp!

/Sammy

Question from a reader

"Hi Sammy
I have one question to you - how to calculate where odds "should" move after first set.
Example, we have 2 players, both have 2,00 odds.
First player win set, odds "should" move to 1.33. How to calculate it?
Thanks, Adam."

Hi Adam!

First of all remember that the calculation only refers to 3 set matches.

So starting price is 2.00 for both players. Which equals 50% for both winning the match. And therefore a 50% chance of winning each set.

Season 2014 is just around the corner

Lets assume that Player A wins first set. Finally we have come to the million dollar question, how do we calculate his theoretical odds?

Lets calculate Player B's chances of winning the match. He needs to win 2 sets in order to win the match from a 0-1 set deficit. Which gives us 50%*50% = 25% (0.5*0.5=0.25)

Now we can easily get Player A's winning chances 100%-25% = 75% (1-0.25=0.75)

75% chance of winning the match equals 1.33 in odds (1/0.75=1.33)

Merry Christmas & Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Missed me?

Hey Guys! Missed me? Probably not but i'm back. I decided to put my writing career on halt for awhile. It was a fun experience but trading has to be first priority and it was to time consuming to be able to do both. I usually trade all of the tennis matches during a day. This doesn't mean I put in any money in them but I do give myself opportunities to find good value. Somedays are super slow and somedays are very lucrative.

I'm pretty happy though season is coming to an end. Its been a long season and alot of matches and markets. In November I'm planning a trip to Dubai and then im probably gonna go a couple of weeks to South America.

The Asia swing is on its way and I actually like waking up this early. Its nice to brew some coffe and grind away and have the afternoon and evening off.

Here is one play for today. Lay Errani, and lay again and again if Errani goes off to a good start.

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

forzafabio.se

Hey!

It was sometime ago i wrote here. Ive been really busy asusual. I got some bad news if you liked reading this blog and mayby getting some tips.

I got this opportunity to write for one of the biggest tennis websites in sweden. Problably the biggest one. Its called forzafabio.se and its ofcourse written in swedish. I will be covering the WTA-tour. So far i have only been writing for a couple of days but its really fun and challenging.

So I just wanted to let you know that for now on i'll put this blog on hold, definately. I still use twitter and I do comment the markets from time to time. Stop by and say hello or have a question. If I got time ill try to answer it for you.

Stay sharp!

/Sammy

Late Night Tennis

So it was a while since i wrote anything about tennis. Im sitting here watching Isner - Anderson now in Atlanta. Apperently there have only been 10 break between these gents in the 208 games they played before. As I write this . You can add another 19 games to that...  soon 20...

Båstad Center Court

Anyways. So what have I been upto lately? I have been trading asusual. But my girlfriend has her holidays now so I have spent alot of time with her also. So my workload haven't been up to standards so to say. Or atleast what it normally is. We went to see Serena incinerate Johanna Larsson in the Womens Final in Båstad. I'd never go if I hadn't gotten the tickets for free. Sure it was a nice day. But womens tennis is kind of dull to be honest.

So we will have A.Radwanska against Cibulkova playing in Stanford. I cant really see any value in these odds. If I was going to do anything initially id start with a lay of Radwanska and see how it goes. Im just going to wait and see how it all evolves.

Isner - Anderson goes into a 3d set. Could get intresting....

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Week 28 - Back to clay

Wimbledon is over and we will have tennis in mainly europe. The men have a grass tournament in Newport USA also this week.

ATP Båstad

As I'm living in Sweden i'll probably go to ATP Båstad this week. I have tickets for wednesday but when I checked the weather yesterday i'm not 100% sure i'll be going. It's abit of a drive for me so if there is any chances of rain i'm going to be home and work instead.

ATP Newport

Week after a Grand Slam, there is various motivational issues with players. Its hard to guess but in general alot of wierd upsets usually happens. Which usually generates swingy matches with lower quality players that hasn't rock solid game

Today monday is kind of a slow start of the week with alot of qualifying matches still to be played. Tomorrow the action really picks up.

But today I havn't given the qualifying matches any focus only the main draw matches.

• In Newport I find Mannarino value against Blake (reverse the odds), Isners odds is also very generous should be around 1.25-1.33 to me. 
• In Germany (Stuttgart), Montanes is abit undervalued against Klizan not alot but around 5%.
• Torro-flor should be abit lower but 1.22 is not back-able so will wait and try to get a higher price.
• Arruabarrena has good value against Larsson.
• I might also lay Halep for trading purposes today.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon Mens Semi's

So it's time for the boys to compete for the 2 spots in the final.

First up is Djokovic-Del Potro today @ 14.00 CET. Djokovic is a healthy favorite @ 1.15 and I think market has done a good job pricing this match.

In the contest between Janowicz-Murray I find Murrays price @ 1.22 abit low. (80%). 1.35 looks more correct (~73%) to me.

I'm gonna wait for in-play and to find some value. Lets move on to the outrights market Djokovic is @ 1.75 , Murray @ 3 , Del Potro @ 17 , Janowicz @ 24

Just for fun I'm going to put odds on possible future finals. Having the outrights market in mind I think the market will have these odds:

Djokovic (1.60) - Murray (2.5).... Reasonable odds but I think ~1.80-1.90 for Djokovic is more reasonable.

Djokovic (1.10) - Janowicz (11) .... More correct odds should be around 1.22.

Murray (1.22) - Del Potro (5.2) ..... Market might put Murray lower but I think 1.30 would be more correct in this final.

And finally chocker final

Janowicz (2.20) - Del Potro (1.8) ... The public would favor Del Potro and consider ranking and so on but for me i'd reverse the odds and I'd have Janowicz as the favorite.

Alot of stuff could happen that would ofcourse change the possibilities of various outcomes. eg. injuries etc.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon Womens Semi's

First of all I want to say some words about the outrights market. Where the girl in super form Lisicki is @ 2.36 as I write this. It's very off for me. 1.74 against radwanska means she has to be atleast 1.40 favorite in the next match, for it being a breakeven proposition. 1.74*1.38 = 2.40


When i run simulations in possible future matchups between Lisicki - Bartoli & Lisicki - Flipkens. I have Lisicki as a ~1.80 favorite (1.70-1.90) against both of them.

This gives us 1.74*1.80 = 3.13

But then you might think "But Sammy haven't you forgot something? How about todays matchup against A.Radwanska?" And you are totally right. Today Lisicki's odds @ 1.75 is fine. I'd lean abit more towards even money than going the other way.

But we will start the afternoon with Bartoli against Flipkens. Market has Bartoli as a ~58% favorite at the moment but for me this is wrong. I think about ~67% (1.50) is more correct.

Just watching the outrights market who ever wins the semi between Bartoli & Flipkens will be under-valued in the final.

Who you got?

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon Mens Quarters

Mens quarters today @ 14.00 CET. And we have exiting matches to look forward to.

Kubot

First off im laying both super favorites, Murray & Djokovic for trading value. I think they are abit to low both of them but especially Murray. They will probably go thru to the semis both of them. But if they lost a set or two wouldn't surprise me at all.

I don't know why Del Potro is drifting... is it beacuse of his knee injury? Even money or Del Potro small favorite is more correct in my world. Should be a very entertaining match to trade.

In the all polish affair between Kubot and Janowicz. I think Janowicz's odds is low. I think 1.50-1.60 would be more viable odds.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon - Womens Quarters

It's quarters time for the ladies and they will start abit later now 14.00 CET. (13 GMT).

Todays matches are:

Lisicki in tears of joy after winning against S.Williams

A.Radwanska - Na Li: I cant really find any value in these odds and I wont take a position from start. If I had to pick a winner i'd say Na Li.

Lisicki - Kanepi: Market has Lisicki as a favorite. Rightfully so. But her pricing @ 1.37 is to low. 1.60-1.75 would be a much better pricing. I'm definately going to lay Lisicki and continue to trade in-play.

Petra Kvitova

Kvitova - Flipkens: I like flipkens odds here. Stats run much closer and Kvitova have been really hot or cold during wimbledon. Everytime I see Kvitova play I can't understand how its even remotely possible that they allow her to keep her belly. She is top 8 in the world and not even fit. I mean how good could she be if she was super fit? It's beyond my understanding.... its like thinking about space. Your brain malfunctions eventually.

This one could be a close one and a very good match to trade.

Stephens - Bartoli: Im on Bartoli this match. And i think her odds is very generous. I'd say 1.55-1.60 on Bartoli is much more correct.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy