Monday, January 27, 2014

Tour moves on...

Pretty dramatical finish we had to the mens final. Nadal taking a trainer. Wawrinka choking in third set. Market was pretty spooked during 2nd and 3d set.

Pretty much everytime a big event is over I feel a big relief that it's over. Usually this has to do with the wierd working hours. So I'm pretty happy that the tour is taking a turn now and moving towards america with some stops here in europe before.

I don't know about you guys but my latency to the AUS wallet/markets is usually around 300-400 milliseconds which is kind of horrible. I usually dont get caught by snipers but happened a few times during these couple of weeks they where in the pacific area. So that is also nice to be working with a normal latency with a ping of 50ish...

This week we have alot of WTA action from Paris & Pattaya. The ATP tour is on hold for some Davis Cup to get underway this weekend. So there will be plenty of matches to grind this week aswell!

Got a nice e-mail from Betfair the other day. Basically said: Congratulations, now we are gonna grab an extra 1.5% from your pockets. For us that does not live in UK, Australia, Italy, Gibraltar. They have increased the commission to 6.5% from 5%. Cheers Betfair!

I understand them. They are in a situation that its possible for them to milk their costumers cause there isn't any competition. I would probably do the same if I where in their shoes. But I must say that I really wish/hope their greedy business model someday goes down in flames... =)

Stay Sharp!


Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Q: from a reader...

Got a question from Ste:

"Hi Sammy, I have been reading your blog on tennis trading. I am a student and have recently started to look towards trading, mainly horseracing as I have a greater knowledge about that. Yet I see more and more trading on tennis, would you be able to give me a few beginner pointers? If you can that would be great, if not then its not problem. Thanks!"

Hey Ste!

So this is a super broad question cause there is many aspects that you have to learn. But key in all sports trading is learning to read the markets.

You have to know from with in 1-2% margin where a odds will be if X or Y happens. If not its very hard to make any assumptions on what your liability or profit will be for the specific trade / strategy you are looking at.

How to do this is pretty straightforward. You just watch alot of matches and see how the market moves each ball / game / set. This might seem abit overwhelming at first cause odds seem to move a bit random. But eventually after alot of practice you can start to see patterns on what is normal and not and after that spot value (when market is out of line)

It took me about 3 months of pretty much watching every tennis match during that time in 2012. I dont know if that is fast or slow. You could probably learn it much quicker but. The first month I pretty much didnt trade i just focused on following the markets movement in relation to what happened in the match.

What else...

Bankroll management, there is loads of information out there on this topic. If you have a small bankroll that you can easily replace. Then you can risk a much higher proportion of your bankroll. If its something that you need to be able to work and make a living. Then you have to take really good care of it. Otherwise you wont make any more money if you blow it all. Its like being a carpenter and not taking care of your tools. You will be out of a job -> no food on the table.

Note worthy is, depending on your margins you have on each trade. If you have small margins = higher variance which then you should use a smaller porportion of your bankroll. The bigger the margin the bigger amount you can risk.

Ok thats all I had time for today. I hope you can take something with you from all of this anyways! I think learning how the markets behave for the different sports is for me the most important thing.

Stay Sharp!


Saturday, January 18, 2014

Halfway thru Aussie Open

Yes we're almost a week into the first grand slam and I had a really good start to the week. But been struggling last couple of days to find any decent value. I'm really struggling with the high liqudity markets. Hard to get any really good value odds due to market maker having no spread at all basically and they pretty much always are infront of the queue with their speed (courtside info). Which is super annoying. Would be way more easy to make money if we where trading on the same terms. But it is what it is....

So I often "zoneout" in these circumstances. Which is not good obviously. But I'm working on it. I think basically I dont trust my strategies or theories in high liquid markets. Which makes me doubt myself alot and therefor not trade aswell.

The sultan @ centercourttrading have recommended a book "trading from your gut" which i picked up the other day. I must say it was a good read. And I think you can pickup alot from it. For you that have read it I find myself being a "left brain" person that are struggling with trusting my instincts and intuition. So I found it quite intresting really.

Much better start to this season. I remember being stuck about 2-3k at this point last season...

Stephane Robert the french lucky looser have made it to the 4th round and you can read a pretty amusing interview here.

Now its time to get back to the markets. The last matches for the day starts in a few mintues.

Stay Sharp!


Saturday, January 11, 2014

Aussie Open 2014


So if your remotely interested in tennis you probably know that on monday this seasons first grand slam will be underway. So there will be plenty of matches to trade which is always nice.

Last week was pretty decent and unlike last year I had a more cautious approach to the season start than last year where I was very eager to make bank and got myself into a huge hole in the first few weeks. Last year I posted a $ 2k profit for january which is not great. (its not bad, but hear me out)

For me personally I think winning on average less than $5k a month is not an option. Then you are probably better off having a normal job and trading part-time. Due to the various factors like social security and pension. I mean being a professional sports trader or any type of gambler is cool and all but when you are at my age (30-ish) you have to take the future a lot more into consideration. Like pension and security like I mentioned before. If you are in your 20's i think that is not as big of a problem and you should probably have much bigger risk calculated just because time is not a factor in that case.

I don't know about you guys, what is your thoughts about this topic?

AO 2014 is around the corner, are your ready?
Tonight I'm taking a day off and recharging my batteries for the 10 days straight work that is ahead of me. My plan is to go to bed @ 9.00 pm and wake up @ 3-4 am and taking a nap in the afternoon. Pacific time is really the worst of them all.

Tomorrow I'll try to make some preparations and have a look at the draw and try to find some value in the outrights markets. If I find something cool I'll let you know tomorrow. Ok, until then have a good evening and stay sharp!