What "should" the set price be?

Hello! First of all I'd like to thank you guys for the kind words I have received about the Podcast. It was good to hear that you found it interesting. Cheers!

So I got a question on twitter regarding an old blogpost from last year about calculating what the odds should be after first set and how to calculate it. http://betfairtennistrader.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/question-from-reader.html

The question I got was instead of having the pre-match odds @ 2.00 for both players. "Lasse" wanted to know how the math is done for a 1.60-2.67 match. So I had a look at the card for the day to have an example. Tonight David Goffin plays versus Jerzy Janowicz. The odds on betfair when I write this is now @ 1.65-2.54 which is close to what we want to calculate here. To make it easy we use "Lasse's" prices.

So this is basic probability calculations and in theory what the price "should" be after first set. You have always consider if the match was rightfully priced from the beginning and what is happening during the first set.

Anyways, here goes...

Lets start to look at what the market is giving us for probability for each player winning the match.

David Goffin (favorite): 1.60 -> 1/1.60= 63% (0.63) - So the favorite is priced to have a 63% chance of winning the match. Now its easy to calculate the chances for the underdog.

Jerzy Janowicz (underdog): 100%-63% = 37% (0.37)

So we assume that each player have the same chance of winning a set, and now that we have probabilities for winning the match its pretty easy to get the theoretical set prices for both players. This is probably where the "mindf*ck" part comes into it but its easy when you know how to do it. Ill skip the probability mumbojumbo and just go straight into how to calculate it.

Lets assume that Goffin wins first set. To calculate his set price, we calculate Janowicz chances of winning the match first from being behind a set. This means what are Janowicz chances of winning two straight sets.

37%*37% (0.37*0.37) = 0.1367 = 13.7%

If we subtract 13.7% from 100% -> 86.3% (0.863) (This is Goffins chance of winning the match after he won first set)

And to get this into odds form -> 1/0.863 = 1.16

Lets see if you can get Jerzy Janowicz theoretical set prices if he wins first set! I think you can do it! =)

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Betcast podcast

Hello, just an short update....

Had a chat with David on Betcast podcast today and you can find the interview here ->



http://www.bettingwebsites.org/podcast/online-poker-to-sports-trader/

I was a bit nervous before actually, cause I knew that a lot of ummm and eehh would come when I tried to explain certain things in english but after listening to it I found it okish after all. Hope you found something interesting if you give it a go.

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Night Watch

When I checked the schedule for this weeks tennis I was pleased that there is basically nothing until the afternoon. Which means I have loads of time to get stuff done around the house and small projects. Flipside is everyone around me works when I don't and I work when they don't. Luckily this isn't the case for along period. Turning the sleeping schedule is somewhat harder these days then it was when I was younger. I get much more tired now and usually need more rest to feel refreshed again. 

I got an request from David @ bettingwebsites.org to be in an interview for his Betcast podcast. You can find his other programs on itunes where he discusses different topics with well known traders from social medias and such.

I was a bit hesitant about being on the show at first cause I really don't have anything to gain except from the experience of being interviewed which is really fun and challenging (making a fool out of myself) due to english not being my native language. All the other guys that have been on the show all have some type of service that they run and get "free" publicity doing this. What David has suggested is to do an interview about the experience I've had of transitioning from poker to trading sports. We will se how it goes....

If there is anything you'd like me to discuss in the podcast let me know and I'll see what I can do about it.

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy