Correction....

Hey Guys!

So my last blogpost about what the 1st set price should be turned out to be very interesting. I was wrong in my calculations, they where no good. But I love being wrong cause then I have a chance to get it right! =)

Thanks to Rico for his input but also the rest of you guys making it a good discussion.

This is Rico's explanation and it might seem a bit complexed but nothing overwhelming. This is how you should do it!

"Let's say we know match odds for player A are 1.6 and we want to find set odds (assuming these stay constant during the match). 

There are three ways for player A to win, he can win by 2-0 or by 2-1 after winning set 1 and losing set 1. Let's say his odds to win a set are x, then his chance to win by 2-0 is x^2. His chance to win 2-1 after winning set 1 are x*x*(1-x)=x^2-x^3 and this is the same for winning 2-1 after losing set 1. 

We can sum these three chances and get to the total chance of 3*x^2-2*x^3 . We now have to find the value of x where this sum is equal to 1.6 and by using the solver in Excel you can fnd that x=58.75% ."

Spot on. Im not a excel master at all. It took me sometime to figure it out but if I can do it. Everyone could do it using google to search for excel help.

One thing to keep in mind is that these 1st set theoretical prices is just viable if the starting price odds was correct from the start (that the market had valued the match correctly from the start). Also, a lot of stuff happens during a set and market will adjust and correct itself a lot and there for the set price usually isn't what the calculated theoretical price is when the first set is finished.

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

What "should" the set price be?

Hello! First of all I'd like to thank you guys for the kind words I have received about the Podcast. It was good to hear that you found it interesting. Cheers!

So I got a question on twitter regarding an old blogpost from last year about calculating what the odds should be after first set and how to calculate it. http://betfairtennistrader.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/question-from-reader.html

The question I got was instead of having the pre-match odds @ 2.00 for both players. "Lasse" wanted to know how the math is done for a 1.60-2.67 match. So I had a look at the card for the day to have an example. Tonight David Goffin plays versus Jerzy Janowicz. The odds on betfair when I write this is now @ 1.65-2.54 which is close to what we want to calculate here. To make it easy we use "Lasse's" prices.

So this is basic probability calculations and in theory what the price "should" be after first set. You have always consider if the match was rightfully priced from the beginning and what is happening during the first set.

Anyways, here goes...

Lets start to look at what the market is giving us for probability for each player winning the match.

David Goffin (favorite): 1.60 -> 1/1.60= 63% (0.63) - So the favorite is priced to have a 63% chance of winning the match. Now its easy to calculate the chances for the underdog.

Jerzy Janowicz (underdog): 100%-63% = 37% (0.37)

So we assume that each player have the same chance of winning a set, and now that we have probabilities for winning the match its pretty easy to get the theoretical set prices for both players. This is probably where the "mindf*ck" part comes into it but its easy when you know how to do it. Ill skip the probability mumbojumbo and just go straight into how to calculate it.

Lets assume that Goffin wins first set. To calculate his set price, we calculate Janowicz chances of winning the match first from being behind a set. This means what are Janowicz chances of winning two straight sets.

37%*37% (0.37*0.37) = 0.1367 = 13.7%

If we subtract 13.7% from 100% -> 86.3% (0.863) (This is Goffins chance of winning the match after he won first set)

And to get this into odds form -> 1/0.863 = 1.16

Lets see if you can get Jerzy Janowicz theoretical set prices if he wins first set! I think you can do it! =)

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Week 28 - Back to clay

Wimbledon is over and we will have tennis in mainly europe. The men have a grass tournament in Newport USA also this week.

ATP Båstad

As I'm living in Sweden i'll probably go to ATP Båstad this week. I have tickets for wednesday but when I checked the weather yesterday i'm not 100% sure i'll be going. It's abit of a drive for me so if there is any chances of rain i'm going to be home and work instead.

ATP Newport

Week after a Grand Slam, there is various motivational issues with players. Its hard to guess but in general alot of wierd upsets usually happens. Which usually generates swingy matches with lower quality players that hasn't rock solid game

Today monday is kind of a slow start of the week with alot of qualifying matches still to be played. Tomorrow the action really picks up.

But today I havn't given the qualifying matches any focus only the main draw matches.

• In Newport I find Mannarino value against Blake (reverse the odds), Isners odds is also very generous should be around 1.25-1.33 to me. 
• In Germany (Stuttgart), Montanes is abit undervalued against Klizan not alot but around 5%.
• Torro-flor should be abit lower but 1.22 is not back-able so will wait and try to get a higher price.
• Arruabarrena has good value against Larsson.
• I might also lay Halep for trading purposes today.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon Mens Semi's

So it's time for the boys to compete for the 2 spots in the final.

First up is Djokovic-Del Potro today @ 14.00 CET. Djokovic is a healthy favorite @ 1.15 and I think market has done a good job pricing this match.

In the contest between Janowicz-Murray I find Murrays price @ 1.22 abit low. (80%). 1.35 looks more correct (~73%) to me.

I'm gonna wait for in-play and to find some value. Lets move on to the outrights market Djokovic is @ 1.75 , Murray @ 3 , Del Potro @ 17 , Janowicz @ 24

Just for fun I'm going to put odds on possible future finals. Having the outrights market in mind I think the market will have these odds:

Djokovic (1.60) - Murray (2.5).... Reasonable odds but I think ~1.80-1.90 for Djokovic is more reasonable.

Djokovic (1.10) - Janowicz (11) .... More correct odds should be around 1.22.

Murray (1.22) - Del Potro (5.2) ..... Market might put Murray lower but I think 1.30 would be more correct in this final.

And finally chocker final

Janowicz (2.20) - Del Potro (1.8) ... The public would favor Del Potro and consider ranking and so on but for me i'd reverse the odds and I'd have Janowicz as the favorite.

Alot of stuff could happen that would ofcourse change the possibilities of various outcomes. eg. injuries etc.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon Womens Semi's

First of all I want to say some words about the outrights market. Where the girl in super form Lisicki is @ 2.36 as I write this. It's very off for me. 1.74 against radwanska means she has to be atleast 1.40 favorite in the next match, for it being a breakeven proposition. 1.74*1.38 = 2.40


When i run simulations in possible future matchups between Lisicki - Bartoli & Lisicki - Flipkens. I have Lisicki as a ~1.80 favorite (1.70-1.90) against both of them.

This gives us 1.74*1.80 = 3.13

But then you might think "But Sammy haven't you forgot something? How about todays matchup against A.Radwanska?" And you are totally right. Today Lisicki's odds @ 1.75 is fine. I'd lean abit more towards even money than going the other way.

But we will start the afternoon with Bartoli against Flipkens. Market has Bartoli as a ~58% favorite at the moment but for me this is wrong. I think about ~67% (1.50) is more correct.

Just watching the outrights market who ever wins the semi between Bartoli & Flipkens will be under-valued in the final.

Who you got?

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon Week 2 - Monday

Kaia Kanepi

Have been busy this weekend. A good friend had his 30 years birthday this saturday. It was a very good party abit to good mayby.

For todays matches I find value in: Flipkens, Pironkova, Bartoli, Kanepi (abit uncertain), Mannarino, Berdysch.

Laying both Murray & Djokovic for trading purposes.

Stay Sharp!

Wimbledon day 4

I usually go through matches the day before. Plenty of matches where I think market have wrong prices.

For the laidies. I think Krumm, Halep, Keys, Vesnina, Zakopalova, Peng, Johansson, Kanepi has value.

Mens. Llodra, Przysiezny, Blake, Zemlja, Kudla, Raonic.

I don't think they will all win ofcourse and i really don't care who does as I have stated many times before. There is a big different between punting and trading.

They are warming up now on the courts.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Midsummer!

Happy midsummer!

Today i wont be trading at all. We are expecting people to arrive in a moment. Just a couple that we are gonna play a match of tennis against. The other couple arrives abit later due to the doctor worked night yesterday.

The typical swedish midsummer consist of dancing around a pole, see picture
(which is a symbol for a huge penis) eating and getting ridicolous drunk. 

Anyways, im not going to trade any. But im betting on Muguruza, Hampton, Halep, Seppi, Dodig. All outrights.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Doing house chores

Thursday and we have another delayed start in Neatherlands which was perfect. So I had time to do some various house work to prepare for tomorrows festivities.

Pironkova

Quarter-finals today and they are about to begin in about 10 minutes time.

I'm quickly going over which players i will be favoring in-play.

Pironkova, Hampton, Kirilenko (backing @ higher odds), U Radwanska, Hernych, Verdasco, Donskoy.

All these i feel should be lower in odds. Especially the girl over here ->

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Hertogenbosch & Eastbourne: Joint-events

Eastbourne

Week 25 we have 2 joint event action in Hertogenbosch & Eastbourne. Both of the tournaments have more than average breaks of serve than the tour avg. for grass. Due to the fact that quality players often doesn't choose to play these events before a Grand Slam.

I'm abit suprised alot of the top WTA players is playing in Eastbourne though.

Hertogenbosch

Today Arvidsson plays against Morita. And the swedish #1 should have a good chance against Morita. Even though her form is very very poor.

Lino could make life difficult on Cibulkova aswell.

Lorenzi i feel is abit under-valued today against De Bakker. De Bakker should be a much better grass courter than he really is. Or atleast thats what past results say.

There is alot of matches today that is really hard to predict due to players almost never have played a grass match on tour level. Alot of random event may happen today.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Week 24 Thursday - Rain & Radar

Riske

It's raining absurdly much here today in west parts of sweden. As of late there has been alot of rain delays. It's kind of annoying when you have to stop trading and not really knowing when action will probably resume.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/london/ec2v-7/weather-radar/328328 is a cool site where you can see radar pictures of the current weather and how rain is moving. Tournaments just usually makes one hours pushes all the time even if they know it will rain for a couple of hours more.

Had a decent day on the markets yesterday. I have a couple of grand on Benneteau also which i left (no liability) against F.Lopez aswell but it doesnt look to good at the moment. He is trailing a break and a set. Also behind 15-40 in his service game at the moment.

Hewitt

For today we have.
Lays: Tsonga, Del Potro, Lisicki, Safarova, Halep

Under valued: Hewitt, Riske, Petkovic

Stay sharp! /Sammy

Week 24 - Tuesday

Due to day 1 in Nurmberger rained away we have plenty to choose from today. And we do start abit earlier than yesterday with matches from the same tournament.

Beygelzimer

To start off the day I'm going to lay Safarova in her service games today initially against Karatantcheva. I feel Pereira and Pegula are undervalued aswell. Duque Marino - Lino seems about right in price.

Its hard to say what matches to trade today especially after 12.00 CET. when the bigger part of the day starts. You will probably find that liquidity will drop on some matches to move to bigger matches and vice versa.

Ryan Harrison

I'm definately going to lay Del Potro today against grass courter specialist Malisse. I also find there is good value in Harrison against Nieminen.

Today both Larsson and Arvidsson plays in Nurmberger. They will have tough matches both of them. If one them goes to 2nd round we (swedes) should be happy. Especially when i think market has the wrong favorite in the Larsson-Bygelzimer match. Petkovic-Arvidsson I find pretty much spot on in the price.


Stay sharp! /Sammy

Day 11 Roland Garros

Federers performance today was not even close to what I expected. Tsonga played super. Serving like a beast. He definately deserved to win. Errani and Radwanska played out pretty much as i expected. Alot of breaks. Myself and my account would have been much happier if Radwanska had taken the tiebreak in the 2nd set.

2nd half of the quarters will get underway tomorrow. I find these big matches really hard to find any real value to be honest. Market is doing a good job and I usually wait for in-play trading and see what happens.

Kirilenko

Jelena Jankovic (JJ)

But there is one match i will take position from start and it's the clash between Kirilenko - Azarenka. I find these 2 much closer on paper. I was abit disapointed in Schiavones performance in Azarenkas last match. She held serve once and it was her first service game of the match if i remember correctly. Schiavone did her job on the return though. But its hard to win matches if you dont hold serve. This matchup though should be different. Im expecting a decent amount of holds for both girls. 1.19 as the current odds is at is to low in my world and I'm laying azarenka pre-match. A couple of holds each and market usually corrects around 10 ticks. Depends some on how easy they hold etc but this could be a very very intresting match for trading.

Jankovic - Sharapova at first glance should be a fist pump Sharapova win. But Jankovic's performance have been getting better and better this year on clay, key for JJ is getting a high 1st serve % in her 2nd serve is very weak and sharapova is probably one of the best in the world at taking advantage of this. Im probably not going to take a position initially here.

Both favorites in the womens matches tomorrow have been looking very focused and sharp during this years RG. But there is a more than a decent chance atleast one of these 2 matches should get very dramatic and lucrative.

In the mens we will see Djokovic - Haas & Nadal - Wawrinka. To be honest i don't have a clue what will happen. Probably 2 solid wins for the huge favorites. I'll just wait and make my decisions in-play.

I got a question on twitter about hardware & software. Im going to write a post about it tomorrow hopefully, when I get some downtime.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Everybody seems to love a P/L screenie...

May 2013

Day 7 Roland Garros

Cornet

Took the bike to the westcoast to visit a friend for some barbeque and beers yesterday evening so I just arrived back home in time for todays tennis.

There are some intresting matches today aswell. Action already started on 2 of them.

Cornet - Azarenka... Azarenka probably wins this in the end but should be alot closer than 1.07. I'm basically laying Azarenka serve every single game cause there is good value in it and then hedging whatever the outcome is. Hoping Cornet holds serve is a breakeven proposition.

Ormaechea should make life abit difficult for the Mattek-Sands. And price is very low on Mattek.

Schiavones odds is abit to high. But im going to trade low-risk spots basically. Never know with these laidies. Usually doesnt make any sense. Its so random its almost predictable.

When running numbers on Paire Nishikori. Nishikori should be a healthy favorit. Evens is a steal. But for me id rather lay Paire at a lower price. So ive been waiting. After nishikori's early break in first set, made a big overreaction which seem very common in the mens markets. As i'm writing Paire broke back now and its 40-15 *2-3 in paires serve. Anyways Nishikori is value.

Nishikori

I find value on Wawrinka aswell, but im going to wait for a bigger price.


Other than that there isn't anything super clear. Value today. Gonna trade overreactions in-play.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 6 Roland Garros

Chardy

Some matches left from yesterday... So have a look at yesterdays post for some thoughts about them.

Today i feel markets is much more effecient in their odds for the 3d round matches today. But we have still lots of intresting matches from postponed from yesterday.

But upset for today is probably Chardy against Tsonga. I find 1.25 very very low. Chardy has the game to beat all these big favorites, and has proven it in the past.

I think there is some value in Anderson today aswell, not much but 5-6%.

Thats about it in the mens for todays Round 3 matches.

For the womens i think Cetkovska is under-valued against Vinci. Her comeback have been ok. I think her game is up to par beacuse recent results do indicate that. Should be much closer in odds.

Puig

Then we have the young gun Puig against CSN. Could easily be an upset here, atleast it could be very swingy which is great.

Matches is about to start. GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 4 Roland Garros

So i got some time over here beacuse its ony ATP matches going on at the moment. Alot of WTA matches was postponed to today due to the rain yesterday.

Schmiedlova beat Wickmayer in a 3 setter. Wickmayer dictating play alot but at the cost of alot of UE's which cost her the match basically.

Johanna Larsson (Jo-Lo)

Matches coming up today is the swede (yay!) Larsson which i think have a good chance of beating Cirstea. Probably ranking and name that has made its mark on the starting price. Should be much more close to evens in my world.

For the same reasons i find Puig's nice as she takes on Keys in the young gun battle for today.

Shelby Rogers

Im abit curious to see what Shelby Rogers can do to hurt Suarez-Navarro. If there is gonna be a big upset for today i think this is it. I've already layed CSN but its abit of an gamble.

There are some ridicolous prices on the Mens matches. Especially after first set. For example was Seppi trading 1.10 after winning first set (SP 1.40) Kavcic lost first set 6-0 though. But still its only 1-0 to Seppi in sets. Its best of 5 sets not 3 sets. Seems like market tend to forget that alot. I have Kavcic as undervalued in that match so it was pretty easy lay for me. Good that he could make it competetive aswell.

Seems like WTA matches is going to get underway soon.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 3 - Roland Garros

30 min to kick-off, intresting matches today aswell.

Mens:

Vesely

Im going to lay these guys today. Kohlschreiber, Wawrinka, Djokovic, Verdasco. For trading purposes.

Its gonna be intresting to watch Vesely, He is a youngster that has been a beast on the futures & challangers. His first ATP match and Grand Slam might be to much for him but I think he will put up a good fight. What does he have to loose? 

Hanescu to beat Tomic. But i will look for better odds in-play.

Womens: Hard to make good predictions today on alot of matches due to alot of players dont have enough data to make good assumptions. But there are a few.

Govortsova to beat Bartoli isn't bad. This match can be an really epic one. Govortsova tends to have big problems closing out matches. Seems like she looses focus when she has a healthy lead.

Dont be suprised in a Schmiedlova upset, beating Wickmayer.

Schmiedlova

I like Jankovic aswell but a bit higher odds would be much nicer.  Same goes for Duque Marino & Peng.

Davis to beat Mladenovic. She had problems against big serving Hradecka last week. Mladenovic has a big one aswell which is the only negative.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Latency

I cant really remember how it was last year at Roland Garros but result updates from today was not great. Basically you have to watch the market maker to know the score. Cause scoreboards are 10 seconds behind. Trading short term during this slam will be very very difficult. I didn't trade the whole session today i got in pretty late. But managed to get a healthy green on Williams vs U.Radwanska.

I did watch alot of other markets and yes it's very hard to get decent odds due to the latency but im going to work more on long term trades for this slam.

I'm pretty tired right now. I have gone through all of the round 1 matches now and there are some intresting matches tomorrow. From the top of my head i think Sijsling is super value. I like Navarros chances tomorrow against an inform Halep.

I will probably make some comments before matches starts tomorrow. Now its time for bed.

ZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzz

/Sammy

Wednesday: The action continues

Another day, another dollar.... to me is the plan.

Brussels had another day of rain. Must be terrible to be a tournament director and there is nothing you can do about it. Hopefully we will get some action there today. Its kind of perfect that it has rained. I was abit worried about missing value in some matches due to the fact that it was supposed to run 5-6 matches at the same time during the day. But now when we are at round 16 of Strasbourg I think i will be able to catch pretty much all of it.

All plays for Brussels still stands from yesterday. So you just have to check yesterdays analysis for the matches in Brussel.

Todays matches:

Giorgi - Bouchard: Giorgi really crushed Bartoli. There was no stream from Bouchards win today so we can't say for sure how the ankle is but it seemed to be a fairly easy win from what the scoreboard was saying. (I followed the match point by point). So we have to assume it's alright. Predicted hold is very very low. We should expect breaks. This one on paper has the features for a very swing and good match to trade.

Tatishvili - Niculescu: Tatishvili won over Garcia which was abit of an upset yesterday. Think Garcia didn't play that match well strategic at all. Today she plays against Niculescu who won in a 3 setter against Erakovic. Market is about right here @ 1.34. I'll just trade this in-play if anything comes up.

Cornet - Linette: Havent seen Linette play so i dont know really what kind of player she is. But her small amount of clay stats is very impressive. Lay Cornet for sure. Epic break fest? Possibility high.

Rogers - Scheepers: Dont know what to think... I'll leave this for mayby some in-play trades.

Torro-Flor - Pennetta: Panetta haven't looked good at all lately. But today we have value on her against Torro-Flor. As the odds say i'm expecting a swingy match. If I had to make a bet only i'd stick my money on Pennetta. (data play)

Doi - Hsieh: I'll be laying Hsieh, first time they play eachother on clay. This is likley to be closer than their previous meetings.

Davis - Hradecka: Expect alot of holds. Hradecka didnt loose a single game on serve yesterday i think. Her game revolvs alot around her serve. Very hard to win against when she is on. Forecast is saying high number of holds for both players this match. There is a small value on Davis.

Larsson - Razzano: Value on Razzano, Looking to back her in play. She seems abit "french". (having a hard time closing out matches) eg. giving away games.

I havent crunched numbers for the mens matches today.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy