Monday, July 28, 2014

Q&A

Its been an eventful summer and July. Finally my girlfriend have moved into the house. The house is still a mess with a lot of boxes and furniture everywhere but we will soon be organized again.

I haven't been able to work a full schedule due to above reason but it looks to be a decent July anyways. We'll have to see what next week will bring before we leave July behind us...... Lets move on to what I was thinking to put in this post....

I get emails from time to time from new aspiring tennis traders. And it's usually the same type of questions. So I thought I just make a post here to make it easier on all of us. =)

1. How did I learn to trade tennis / where did I learn?

I learnt myself. First of all I read anything related to trading tennis or tennis in general, that I could find using google. And I started to watch ALOT of tennis and how the market (betfair) behaved during each of these matches. And asking the question "why the market is moving like it does when X or Y or Z happens". After a couple of thousand matches/markets of doing this you will notice stuff that is out of line. 

2. What strategies do I use?

The million dollar question, no?? Heres the answer..... *drumroll* ...........

I don't have any strategies. A lot of you guys might think "yeah right, you idiot". But its true. I don't have any. Its all about the market and when it gives me a value trade or bet. There is a difference between the two but maybe we can talk about that some other time. So I don't have a set strategy like always lay the server @ breakpoints in a women's match or any type of scenario of that nature. 

You always have to look at what kind of odds you get for each specific trade/bet you want to do. I mean if I told you that we flip a coin and If I win you give me 100£ , if You win I give you 50£. Surely you would think thats not a good bet. Its the same when trading/betting tennis or any type of gambling. If you think you have an edge go ahead and exploit it!

So the questions you might ask yourself (or you should really) is how do you know that its a good bet/trade? Then I refer to the answer to question #1.

3. How long does it take to make constant profit?

Really, really hard to say. I can't really know, it's probably very individual. For me I think it was pretty fast. But It mainly has to do with the fact that I had been playing poker for many years before. So the mental aspect and how to think in terms of variance and value. I already had those fundamentals. So I basically just had to learn the markets and everything about tennis.

Its very personal and how much time and effort you are willing to dedicate of course.

To make something clear as well there isn't anything like constant profit. There is always an element of risk trading/gambling. The higher your return (edge) is the less variance you will have and a more constant profit. You have to also take timeframe into consideration. Constant profit over a week or month, year?

4. Do you offer any type of coaching or training?

No, sorry...


I hope you had a good summer so far, until next time.

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

8 comments:

  1. Hey Sammy,

    Do you mind sharing what type of poker (cash games, SNGs, etc) were you playing prior to transitioning to tennis trading? Also what stakes?

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    Replies
    1. Hey Yassi!

      At first i only played no limit 6 max for a couple of years. Then I started to focus a lot on heads up no limit texas, and eventually before i started trading I only played heads up Omaha. Cash games where the only thing I played. Some tournaments on sundays but I was really bad at it =)

      /Sammy

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    2. Sorry forgot... I started off @ nl50 in the beginning. Later on I played anything between NL200-NL1000 depending how good the game was. In the later parts i played PLO200 - PLO400. So I was playing midstakes most of the time...

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    3. Wow, HU Omaha. I can't even imagine what the variance was like. I play what can be called the opposite in the poker spectrum - full ring, 50-100nl :)

      I know I'm asking you to compare two totally different things, but how do you feel is the variance in tennis trading (given your current edge) comparing to the variance of a solid winning (3-4 bb/100) poker player?

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    4. I don't know how long you have played but it was much different before and I would classify myself as a bumhunter making 10-12bb and even more at omaha hu (the difficult part was finding good games) so I did have some variance but with good game selection there was not much even for omaha hu...

      Anyways compared with trading so is the variance lower. Its much slower and I "work" so much more now than I did when I was playing poker. Its do different beasts but for me personally trading is lower variance. But this probably depends on how you trade. But compared to a 3-4bb/100 player id say most definitely lower variance...

      Hope this answers your question...

      /Sammy

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    5. Crazy bad spelling, but I blame trading tennis at the same time ;)

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