Q&A

Its been an eventful summer and July. Finally my girlfriend have moved into the house. The house is still a mess with a lot of boxes and furniture everywhere but we will soon be organized again.

I haven't been able to work a full schedule due to above reason but it looks to be a decent July anyways. We'll have to see what next week will bring before we leave July behind us...... Lets move on to what I was thinking to put in this post....

I get emails from time to time from new aspiring tennis traders. And it's usually the same type of questions. So I thought I just make a post here to make it easier on all of us. =)

1. How did I learn to trade tennis / where did I learn?

I learnt myself. First of all I read anything related to trading tennis or tennis in general, that I could find using google. And I started to watch ALOT of tennis and how the market (betfair) behaved during each of these matches. And asking the question "why the market is moving like it does when X or Y or Z happens". After a couple of thousand matches/markets of doing this you will notice stuff that is out of line. 

2. What strategies do I use?

The million dollar question, no?? Heres the answer..... *drumroll* ...........

I don't have any strategies. A lot of you guys might think "yeah right, you idiot". But its true. I don't have any. Its all about the market and when it gives me a value trade or bet. There is a difference between the two but maybe we can talk about that some other time. So I don't have a set strategy like always lay the server @ breakpoints in a women's match or any type of scenario of that nature. 

You always have to look at what kind of odds you get for each specific trade/bet you want to do. I mean if I told you that we flip a coin and If I win you give me 100£ , if You win I give you 50£. Surely you would think thats not a good bet. Its the same when trading/betting tennis or any type of gambling. If you think you have an edge go ahead and exploit it!

So the questions you might ask yourself (or you should really) is how do you know that its a good bet/trade? Then I refer to the answer to question #1.

3. How long does it take to make constant profit?

Really, really hard to say. I can't really know, it's probably very individual. For me I think it was pretty fast. But It mainly has to do with the fact that I had been playing poker for many years before. So the mental aspect and how to think in terms of variance and value. I already had those fundamentals. So I basically just had to learn the markets and everything about tennis.

Its very personal and how much time and effort you are willing to dedicate of course.

To make something clear as well there isn't anything like constant profit. There is always an element of risk trading/gambling. The higher your return (edge) is the less variance you will have and a more constant profit. You have to also take timeframe into consideration. Constant profit over a week or month, year?

4. Do you offer any type of coaching or training?

No, sorry...


I hope you had a good summer so far, until next time.

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Week 24 - Grass season

I had some days off and went to Germany for a little trip with my girlfriend. We ended up in Berlin & Lübeck.We had great weather and a really good time. There is so much to see in Berlin its really hard to find time to do it all. Was surprised about Lübeck it was really nice, but 1 day is enough. We where abit in luck cause there was this wine festival going on i Lübeck. I was drinking sekt (german champange) all night from south german wine producers for basically nothing.

Gerry Webber Open - Halle

Aegon Classic/Championship - Birmingham

Clay season is basically over. There is a number of tournement left but left but officially it's kind of over. As i came home pretty late yesterday. I went to bed earlier than normal. I haven't really checked the matches for today which is not great. But stats is really hard to find for grass. Some players haven't recorded a single match on grass. Which makes it hard for me and betting companys to come up with decent lines.

Average hold for both men and women on grass is significantlly higher than on other surfaces. So we can expect in generall less breaks.

Nurnberger WTA Int'

 There is a clay tournament this week in Nurnberger which is a new tournament. Hard to say how that clay play so we will see what info comes about and what numbers that turns up.

I'm getting ready myself for todays action and im not finished so I cant really get you any predictions for today. If I find anything intresting I will post it later. Im going write an article about hardware and software this week. I have alot on my plate though but hopefully I will have time to do it abit later.

GL @ the markets /Sammy

Day 2 Roland Garros

I was supposed to write something about todays matches. But i woke up really late due to the fact I went to bed 03.30 in the night.

I was abit dissapointed at my performance today at the markets. You might think I did have a bad day. On the contrary really, money wise it was ok. But I usually have a plan for every single match I trade. Not in super detail but if X happens i'll do Y basically. And as the match progresses X & Y changes ofcourse. But when there is so many matches going on at the same time as it where today and there is good liqudity and market maker at every single one of them. There is to much to choose from. So i end up doing nothing instead of executing. I don't know if this makes any sense but i was really tilted for a while cause i couldn't focus.

So tomorrow i'll just make a decision to just have specific chosen matches open. (I usually have all markets open that is running just for monitor purpose. Hence the information overload.)

Enough about that rambling.... Today Haase (or #hahahahaase in the twitter world) finally ended his record tiebreak loosing streak. "Hopefully I'm not going to lose another 17 in a row"  

I have to look through tomorrows matches now. If it doesn't get to late I'll write down my top picks for tomorrow.

/Sammy

Tuesday: Wierd prices...

Big day of tennis! 

As there is to many matches to handle today im just gonna focus on the ladies today in my trading. If i find any ridiculous in the mens ill let you know.

Brussels:
Arvidsson - Peng: Our best player is playing today, always fun. And they have a feed from that match so I'm definately going to monitor it. Arvidsson's form lately isn't the best but after crunching numbers, I find 1.50 very low on Peng. To much heart and no logic in this play? I think it's fine....

Zhang - Rybarikova: Data on this match is not good but last year rybarikova has 0-3 on clay. I doubt this is her favorite surface. Zhang have been doing pretty decent on the dirt. Numbers also say that Rybarikova shouldn't win this 67% of the time. A lay is probably worth some money.

Vandeweghe-Goerges: There is nothing wrong in laying Georges in this match. We shouldn't expect to many breaks in this match. Projected holds are well over tour average.

Kanepi - Cibulkova: Tough opening match for both girls. Draw haven't been nice to either of them. Odds is about right so i'm not taking a position from start. Trading this in-play. This one could definately swing.

Flipkens - Keys: Computer says that this match is way off in odds. Flipkens record last year is 1-3, Keys 4-2. If Keys serves well she should probably win this match.

Wickmayer - Hampton: Hampton is one of my favorite players but she hasn't been playing well lately and her record on clay is not good at all. Wickmayer's odds looks like value. Predicted hold on hampton is under 50% so we should expect Wickmayer to break her plenty.

Oprandi - Oudin: I find odds here to be pretty decent. This could turn out to be a really swingy match with alot of breaks. So you could pretty much lay who ever takes the lead.

Strasbourg: 

Bartoli - Giorgi: Upset alert, Bartoli haven't been good on the dirt. Computer also says this should be alot closer than SP says. Expect more breaks than normal.

Larsson - Cetkovska: If i where excited about Arvidssons chances today. Im not that keen on Larsson today. Cetkovska is coming back now from injury(?) she hasnt played in a while. So thats why i think Larsson is a favorite here. I'm just trading this in-play. I dont know if this is on stream but that would help alot to get a feel for how Cetkovska is performing. Predicted hold is very low. Could be a killer match to trade.

McHale - Davis: After crunching some numbers this 1.35 on McHale is very flawed. This is a lay, and if McHale takes the lead ill lay even more and then some more. Expect alot of breaks.

Cornet - Johansson: Break fest!

Beck - Hsieh: This one will probably feature alot of breaks aswell. Data is favoring Beck handsomly.

Doi - Pliskova: Wrong favorite here.

Here is some matches ill be looking to back the favorite if they trail.

Garcia, Razzano,

Mens:
Monfils is definately a lay.

Lay Stakhovsky.