Q&A

Its been an eventful summer and July. Finally my girlfriend have moved into the house. The house is still a mess with a lot of boxes and furniture everywhere but we will soon be organized again.

I haven't been able to work a full schedule due to above reason but it looks to be a decent July anyways. We'll have to see what next week will bring before we leave July behind us...... Lets move on to what I was thinking to put in this post....

I get emails from time to time from new aspiring tennis traders. And it's usually the same type of questions. So I thought I just make a post here to make it easier on all of us. =)

1. How did I learn to trade tennis / where did I learn?

I learnt myself. First of all I read anything related to trading tennis or tennis in general, that I could find using google. And I started to watch ALOT of tennis and how the market (betfair) behaved during each of these matches. And asking the question "why the market is moving like it does when X or Y or Z happens". After a couple of thousand matches/markets of doing this you will notice stuff that is out of line. 

2. What strategies do I use?

The million dollar question, no?? Heres the answer..... *drumroll* ...........

I don't have any strategies. A lot of you guys might think "yeah right, you idiot". But its true. I don't have any. Its all about the market and when it gives me a value trade or bet. There is a difference between the two but maybe we can talk about that some other time. So I don't have a set strategy like always lay the server @ breakpoints in a women's match or any type of scenario of that nature. 

You always have to look at what kind of odds you get for each specific trade/bet you want to do. I mean if I told you that we flip a coin and If I win you give me 100£ , if You win I give you 50£. Surely you would think thats not a good bet. Its the same when trading/betting tennis or any type of gambling. If you think you have an edge go ahead and exploit it!

So the questions you might ask yourself (or you should really) is how do you know that its a good bet/trade? Then I refer to the answer to question #1.

3. How long does it take to make constant profit?

Really, really hard to say. I can't really know, it's probably very individual. For me I think it was pretty fast. But It mainly has to do with the fact that I had been playing poker for many years before. So the mental aspect and how to think in terms of variance and value. I already had those fundamentals. So I basically just had to learn the markets and everything about tennis.

Its very personal and how much time and effort you are willing to dedicate of course.

To make something clear as well there isn't anything like constant profit. There is always an element of risk trading/gambling. The higher your return (edge) is the less variance you will have and a more constant profit. You have to also take timeframe into consideration. Constant profit over a week or month, year?

4. Do you offer any type of coaching or training?

No, sorry...


I hope you had a good summer so far, until next time.

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Halfway thru Aussie Open

Yes we're almost a week into the first grand slam and I had a really good start to the week. But been struggling last couple of days to find any decent value. I'm really struggling with the high liqudity markets. Hard to get any really good value odds due to market maker having no spread at all basically and they pretty much always are infront of the queue with their speed (courtside info). Which is super annoying. Would be way more easy to make money if we where trading on the same terms. But it is what it is....

So I often "zoneout" in these circumstances. Which is not good obviously. But I'm working on it. I think basically I dont trust my strategies or theories in high liquid markets. Which makes me doubt myself alot and therefor not trade aswell.

The sultan @ centercourttrading have recommended a book "trading from your gut" which i picked up the other day. I must say it was a good read. And I think you can pickup alot from it. For you that have read it I find myself being a "left brain" person that are struggling with trusting my instincts and intuition. So I found it quite intresting really.


Much better start to this season. I remember being stuck about 2-3k at this point last season...


Stephane Robert the french lucky looser have made it to the 4th round and you can read a pretty amusing interview here. http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/news/interviews/2014-01-18/201401181390025203272.html

Now its time to get back to the markets. The last matches for the day starts in a few mintues.

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Friday week 24 - Q-finals & semi's

Dennis Kudla

So today there is quite a few matches where I totally disagree with the market. I might be abit naïve but today i think there is loads of flaws in the markets.

Hewitt should be much closer in odds against Del Potro.

I dont think Kudla will win but could really make life difficult for Tsonga which is trading 1.10 now and for me that is very low. The young american is perfoming well on the grass.

Backing 1.05 on Murray is definately not a fist pump back. Im probably gonna lay this and reverse it on Murray if he trades higher.

Monfils should be much closer in odds to Haas in my world aswell.

Gael Monfils

Lisicki to low for me aswell playing against Alison Riske.

For the clay courts Petkovic should make it alot tougher on Jankovic than the odds say. Halep - Safarova should be a really close one aswell. But I think Halep will take it in the end.

Vekic is a really intresting player also that starts off the day against Cirstea in Birmingham. I hope she can make it intresting against the inform Sorana.

As im writing it seems "smart" money is piling up laying Cirstea 1.60.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Week 24 Thursday - Rain & Radar

Riske

It's raining absurdly much here today in west parts of sweden. As of late there has been alot of rain delays. It's kind of annoying when you have to stop trading and not really knowing when action will probably resume.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/london/ec2v-7/weather-radar/328328 is a cool site where you can see radar pictures of the current weather and how rain is moving. Tournaments just usually makes one hours pushes all the time even if they know it will rain for a couple of hours more.

Had a decent day on the markets yesterday. I have a couple of grand on Benneteau also which i left (no liability) against F.Lopez aswell but it doesnt look to good at the moment. He is trailing a break and a set. Also behind 15-40 in his service game at the moment.

Hewitt

For today we have.
Lays: Tsonga, Del Potro, Lisicki, Safarova, Halep

Under valued: Hewitt, Riske, Petkovic

Stay sharp! /Sammy

Day 11 Roland Garros

Federers performance today was not even close to what I expected. Tsonga played super. Serving like a beast. He definately deserved to win. Errani and Radwanska played out pretty much as i expected. Alot of breaks. Myself and my account would have been much happier if Radwanska had taken the tiebreak in the 2nd set.

2nd half of the quarters will get underway tomorrow. I find these big matches really hard to find any real value to be honest. Market is doing a good job and I usually wait for in-play trading and see what happens.

Kirilenko

Jelena Jankovic (JJ)

But there is one match i will take position from start and it's the clash between Kirilenko - Azarenka. I find these 2 much closer on paper. I was abit disapointed in Schiavones performance in Azarenkas last match. She held serve once and it was her first service game of the match if i remember correctly. Schiavone did her job on the return though. But its hard to win matches if you dont hold serve. This matchup though should be different. Im expecting a decent amount of holds for both girls. 1.19 as the current odds is at is to low in my world and I'm laying azarenka pre-match. A couple of holds each and market usually corrects around 10 ticks. Depends some on how easy they hold etc but this could be a very very intresting match for trading.

Jankovic - Sharapova at first glance should be a fist pump Sharapova win. But Jankovic's performance have been getting better and better this year on clay, key for JJ is getting a high 1st serve % in her 2nd serve is very weak and sharapova is probably one of the best in the world at taking advantage of this. Im probably not going to take a position initially here.

Both favorites in the womens matches tomorrow have been looking very focused and sharp during this years RG. But there is a more than a decent chance atleast one of these 2 matches should get very dramatic and lucrative.

In the mens we will see Djokovic - Haas & Nadal - Wawrinka. To be honest i don't have a clue what will happen. Probably 2 solid wins for the huge favorites. I'll just wait and make my decisions in-play.

I got a question on twitter about hardware & software. Im going to write a post about it tomorrow hopefully, when I get some downtime.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 10 Roland Garros

It's time for quarterfinals in Paris, France. Today we have 2 womens matches and 2 mens on the card. There is alot of doubles going on aswell but I have some stuff to do around the house so i dont think i will get involved in this. But lets go through the singles matches today....

Like most matches i find S.Williams being value at these crazy prices. But backing from start is not for me. I'm going to back S.Williams if she trades higher.

A.Radwanska against Errani could get alot more intresting. The 1.64 (61%) odds on Radwanska is fine. Predicted holds for this match is very low. And trading breaks will most likely be a generous offer. I'm hoping for a 3 setter with alot of drama in the mix.

T.Robredo

Robredo - Ferrer: Will the fairytale continue? I doubt it. Having 3 tough 5 setters in the legs and the emotional drain after the last one. Robredo cried of happiness after winning against almagro. It was almost like had won the whole tournament. I think it would take a lot to reboot emotionally and physically to beat an inform Ferrer over another 5 sets. 1.07 is very low though nothing i'm going to back.

The main attraction today is definately the clash between Tsonga vs Federer. Market has Federer at a healthy 1.60 which I find high. After Federers poor performance against Simon the other day and Tsonga looking really solid in his previous matches during RG. I think market has overreacted abit though. For me i'd say 1.33-1.40 would have been a much more solid odds on Federer. It's definately gonna be a intresting match to watch and hopefully trade. GL @ the markets. /Sammy

Federer & Tsonga

Day 6 Roland Garros

Chardy

Some matches left from yesterday... So have a look at yesterdays post for some thoughts about them.

Today i feel markets is much more effecient in their odds for the 3d round matches today. But we have still lots of intresting matches from postponed from yesterday.

But upset for today is probably Chardy against Tsonga. I find 1.25 very very low. Chardy has the game to beat all these big favorites, and has proven it in the past.

I think there is some value in Anderson today aswell, not much but 5-6%.

Thats about it in the mens for todays Round 3 matches.

For the womens i think Cetkovska is under-valued against Vinci. Her comeback have been ok. I think her game is up to par beacuse recent results do indicate that. Should be much closer in odds.

Puig

Then we have the young gun Puig against CSN. Could easily be an upset here, atleast it could be very swingy which is great.

Matches is about to start. GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 4 Roland Garros

So i got some time over here beacuse its ony ATP matches going on at the moment. Alot of WTA matches was postponed to today due to the rain yesterday.

Schmiedlova beat Wickmayer in a 3 setter. Wickmayer dictating play alot but at the cost of alot of UE's which cost her the match basically.

Johanna Larsson (Jo-Lo)

Matches coming up today is the swede (yay!) Larsson which i think have a good chance of beating Cirstea. Probably ranking and name that has made its mark on the starting price. Should be much more close to evens in my world.

For the same reasons i find Puig's nice as she takes on Keys in the young gun battle for today.

Shelby Rogers

Im abit curious to see what Shelby Rogers can do to hurt Suarez-Navarro. If there is gonna be a big upset for today i think this is it. I've already layed CSN but its abit of an gamble.

There are some ridicolous prices on the Mens matches. Especially after first set. For example was Seppi trading 1.10 after winning first set (SP 1.40) Kavcic lost first set 6-0 though. But still its only 1-0 to Seppi in sets. Its best of 5 sets not 3 sets. Seems like market tend to forget that alot. I have Kavcic as undervalued in that match so it was pretty easy lay for me. Good that he could make it competetive aswell.

Seems like WTA matches is going to get underway soon.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Monday:Rome

If i counted right we have 22 matches today. So it should be plenty of opportunities. Liquidity might be a problem in some matches. But its pretty easy to spot where it is and isn't. Just be a bit cautious, you might have to red @ wrong prices.

Im probably just gonna trade WTA matches, but it also depends where liquidity will be at. So there might be a couple of ATP in it today. We will have to see how the surface is playing out this week. The thin air and pretty fast clay in Madrid favored the very aggressive style of Raonic and Janowiz. I think Rome will play abit slower and they wont have that much advantage against the good grinding type of players. This is just a guess but we will have to see.

Mens:
Fognini - Seppi should be a very nice match to trade. I think market have the wrong favorite here but it really doesnt matter. You can probably go both ways here. Laying who ever has the lead.

Montanes - Klizan: Klizans odds here is to high. Im going to back him at some point in the match.

Giraldo - Janowicz: Wrong favorite. Im favoring Giraldo.

Kohl-Raonic: Raonic abit to high. I will lay. I really dont like trading big servers cause volatility and variance is extreme usually. But getting position on kohlschreibers serve and then moving some liaibility when he has held is good. So you can cover if he gets broken first.

I cant really understand that Malisse is so bad @ clay. His stats are like night and day clay vs hardcourt. I was abit surprised that market have taken note of this.

Stepanek - Starace: I dont know what to say, might be a very fun market. Computer says Stepanek to low. These 2 gentlemen is known as 2 match fixers. This is pretty much common knownledge and market will probably be abit crazy due to it when fear and greed kicks in.

Women:
 Cirstea - Morita: Last week they played and Morita had to retire after just 3 games. Dont know what that was about. Probably better to just leave it alone. Or back cirstea. Market will go crazy if there is a MTO.

Niculesu - Peng: High probability this will be a very nice match to trade. Odds are a little high on Niculescu.

Hsieh - Stosur: Lay Stosur

JJ - Pirnokova: Lay JJ

Makarova - Oudin: Lay Makarova


GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Edit: Forgot, Ramos to low aswell. Lay.