Friday, May 10, 2013

Fri-Madrid: Quarters

The good trading continues. To be honest predictions been pretty spot on this week. Bartoli yesterday got abit expensive in the end. She wasn't really close of making it competetive at any point. But rest of the matches yesterday makes up for it and plenty more. So it's all good.

Today its holidays in sweden and my girlfriend doesn't work. I doubt ill be trading any today, mayby ill join the action later on today but it depends on what we end up doing today. But i'll help you out where there is flaws in the market today and hopefully it helps how to plan your trading in various matches.

Liquidty is no where close to being a problem. But you must know that its really hard to beat the market if u trade short-term when markets is drained in $£€. There have been plenty of swing trading opportunities this week and it will most likely be opportunities today.

So lets get down to business:


S.Williams lost 2 points on serve yesterday which is just crazy. Well above expectations. Today she is a 1.05-06 favorit against garrigues. And as crazy as it sounds is value backing this in my world. I would never back this though. But id definately look to back at higher odds. As long as market is stable (no MTO etc) you can pretty safely back williams if she starts off bad. Due to the high liquidity in the markets.

Errani's odds is to high. Id definately look to back Errani. Backing from start and then adding more if she starts bad is an option. But you have to be able to withstand a big loss if the shit hits the fan. Id probably not take a position from start and se how it develops and try to get position on Errani at some point and get a swing and then re-invest.

Ivanovic is under-valued against Kerber. About same approach as for Errani's match with this one.

Dont know the latest news about Kanepi and her MTO against Hantuchova. But Sharapova is to short if Kanepi is up to standards. Easy lay of Sharapova.


Nishikori's odds is a tad high, but I'm not taking a position from the start. I'm favoring Special K though.

Murray - Berdysh: Dunno really what to say, Odds is about right. If i have to choose a side to lean on it would be murray. But probably i would just lay who ever has the lead through out the match. Not super likely one of them would win 6-2 6-2.

Wawrinka - Tsonga. Looking to back Wawrinka at some point in the match.

Nadal - Ferrer. Nadal been super solid this week and winning easily. This is the first matchup this week where Nadals odds is clearly to low. Lets hope Ferrer can bring it and make it competetive and not make it a re-run of what happened in Mexico this februrary

GL @ the Markets.


1 comment:

  1. Hi Sammy,

    Totally agree on Errani especially - plus adding to position has to be necessary too in running. If the shit hits the fan, we definitely had value...

    Also agree about Ivanovic to a lesser extent, opening prices over evens were stupidly big. Kanepi too but worried about her injury (game handicap prematch would have been great if she wasn't doubtful).

    ATP Kei for sure if he falls behind inplay, I like Berdych for sure too.


    Dan (Tennisratings)