Question from a reader

"Hi Sammy! I'm from hungary and can't speak english very well, but I hope you will understand me. :) I am trading betfair for 5 years. Greyhound and horse racing: scalping.

I began trade tennis for 2 months. I think, I know, where there are my entry points.
double break, if the price nearly set price.
My stop loss: set price
But I can't decided, where is my green?
Break back liability off, duble break back hedge?
Or be happy that I got such a good price and let the end of the game?
Can you give me some instructions?

Best Regards, Tamas Keller"
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Hi Tamas! Your english good...I hope you will understand me now though =)

The easy answer to your question is the boring but still so true: It depends...

Every match and market is different so there is not a guide how to trade a double break or trade any given scenario in a tennis match. It always depends on the market and how you think it will react.

Ok, so im going to make an example here before it gets really boring. Tomorrow we have a match between Feliciano Lopez - Julien Benneteau. Odds are att 1.95 - 2.04 just now when I write this. But to simplify we say an even match, 2.00 - 2.00 for both players.

So this gives us that the market estimates each player chances to with the match to 50% and therefor 50% to win a set. So theoretical setprice for each player is 1.33 if they win first set. But if you have traded tennis for sometime you would probably have noticed by now that a match with 2.00 starting price seldom end up @1.33 after first set. Its usually more like 1.27ish  or even lower depending how the first set ende (double break, tiebreaker etc). More than often lower than higher than the theoretical price. Probably due to momentum and market pressure and so on.

Lets say Feliciano Lopez takes a *4-1 lead with a double break. and market is really favoring Lopez. and 1.30 is trading. Now you might think, Hey! That is lower than the theoretical price, and we should lay Lopez! Very good observation! Yes its true and in a vacuum if you thought the market had a correct starting price for the match it's a easy lay of Lopez......... Unfortunately it's not this easy. We always have to consider the market and what we think will happen if X or Y or Z happens.

This could turn into a very long post but i'll continue the example and hopefully you will get my point. We lay lopez 1.30 and our intentions is to trade out at set price or if benneteau levels the set.

So how will we know if this is a good trade or not? Ok so current price is 1.30 and if match gets back to even odds will be 2.00. So we have to estimate what the set price will be if Lopez wins first set.

Set price: 1.18 | Current price: 1.30 | Match leveled: 2.00 ->  1.28 = 77%

Set price: 1.22 | Current price: 1.30 | Match leveled: 2.00 ->  1.19 = 84%

Set price: 1.27 | Current price: 1.30 | Match leveled: 2.00 ->  1.07 = 94%

As we can see its pretty big difference between these three examples. And its up to you and estimate both the likelyhood for Lopez to win the set compared to what the target price will be for set and when the match is leveled.

So to wrap this up...

I hope my little explenation made some sense and this is why I started off with the boring "it depends". But it really does as I have pointed out. Laying double break is usually a good trade but not always and when to take "green" also depends on what kind of odds you get in a certain situation against the probability on a given scenario.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Latency

I cant really remember how it was last year at Roland Garros but result updates from today was not great. Basically you have to watch the market maker to know the score. Cause scoreboards are 10 seconds behind. Trading short term during this slam will be very very difficult. I didn't trade the whole session today i got in pretty late. But managed to get a healthy green on Williams vs U.Radwanska.

I did watch alot of other markets and yes it's very hard to get decent odds due to the latency but im going to work more on long term trades for this slam.

I'm pretty tired right now. I have gone through all of the round 1 matches now and there are some intresting matches tomorrow. From the top of my head i think Sijsling is super value. I like Navarros chances tomorrow against an inform Halep.

I will probably make some comments before matches starts tomorrow. Now its time for bed.

ZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzz

/Sammy

Friday:Rome - To much faith in the mens favs?

Upsets for today was definately Paire & Janowiz. Gulbis excellent performance against Nadal was epic aswell.

Im writing this now @ midnight. Opening price on Jankovic was very generous. Im backing her against Halep. Running numbers thru my computer says she should be a clear favorite. I mean if halep was supposed to play Na Li tomorrow. Li would be @ 1.40 maximum. So logically 1.80ish is big. It might steam in though. Dont know what SP will be.

You could lay Azarenka but im not super excited about it... key is serve here for both girls. We shouldn't expect many breaks in tomorrows matchup.
Same goes for Sharapova vs Errani. It pretty much up to Sharapova. Errani's strengths is her return game. If sharapova is holding serve well (errani not doing what shes best at). Then this could be a very quick match. But on the other side of the coin. We should expect alot of breaks on errani serve. If she holds comfortably this should be a sign of a possible upset.

Im like a like a like a ....... broken record about the next one but there is value backing S.Williams pre-match vs Navarro tomorrow. But ill try to get better odds in-play.

In the mens you could lay all the favorits and feel good about it.

Nadal have about the same opening price as in Madrid. We know how super that one was trading. So something similar to that one would be great.

Djoko also very low.

The downside on laying these guys is that even if they trail. Market pressure is always there, so you dont get that extra value you get on other players when market starts to overreact etc.

Same thing doesn't apply to Paire ofcourse, him being one of the most erratic players on ATP tour. If he plays same kind of tennis against granollers as he did today vs Delpo its GSM in no time. But you dont really know what will come from the young frenchman.

GL @ the markets. Remember this advices are for trading purposes. I couldn't care less who wins the match to be honest.

/Sammy

Tuesday:Rome - Say hello to...

If you thought there was plenty of matches yesterday. Say hello to todays card. (Im not gonna post it you have to look it up). It's alot anyway... 3 courts on stream, always alot of money rollin' around on these. I dont know what matches will be on the bigger venues tomorrow. Im just posting some matches with flawed SP's. There is probably no chance to trade all of them, even for a genius like me ;) So choose wisely. And it helps alot if u have a plan for each match before entering the market when alot of matches is going on.

Ohh by the way, anyone else getting burned by Makarovas retire? It was not a cheap experience. :O

Tuesdays battles

Mens:
Cilic - Anderson: Anderson under-valued.

Granollers - Murray: Lay Murray. This one could easily get alot tougher than odds say.

Volandri - Simon: Lay Simon.

Delpo - Kuznetsov: There is value backing Del Potro. But i seldom back at these odds from start. But if he trades higher im gonna look for action.

Dimitrov - Gasquet: Wrong favorite... leaning on Dimi.

Chardy - Lopez: If Lopez was 100% fit. This shuld be more of an 50/50 match. But now i dont know what to think.

Haas - Youzhny: Looking to back Haas @ some point in the match.

Zeballos - Verdasco: Verdasco abit under-valued. But you never know with the spaniard. Just gives away matches like its christmas eve sometimes.

Rosol - Troicki: When im writing this 1.95 is trading. Wouldnt surprise me if we see 1.80 just before the match. And that sounds just about right. Bucharest re-run?

Benneteau - Almagro: Almagro is under-valued. But very low odds here. Will get into the action if he trades higher.

Womens:
Kvitova - Lisicki: Kivitova might be best value today.

A.Radwanska - Halep: Wierdly high odds on Radwanska. Must be some type of form adjustment here from market. Back A.Radwanska @ some point during the match.

S.Williams - Robson: Robsons win against sister W might have boosted her stocks. Clear value on S.Williams. But as always looking for better odds than 1.11 before I get dirty.

Ivanonvic - U.Radwanska: Value is on Ivanovic.

Vesnina - Vinci: Lay Vinci and then add some more if Vinci starts better than the 2. Otherwise hedge and re-invest.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Fri-Madrid: Quarters

The good trading continues. To be honest predictions been pretty spot on this week. Bartoli yesterday got abit expensive in the end. She wasn't really close of making it competetive at any point. But rest of the matches yesterday makes up for it and plenty more. So it's all good.

Today its holidays in sweden and my girlfriend doesn't work. I doubt ill be trading any today, mayby ill join the action later on today but it depends on what we end up doing today. But i'll help you out where there is flaws in the market today and hopefully it helps how to plan your trading in various matches.

Liquidty is no where close to being a problem. But you must know that its really hard to beat the market if u trade short-term when markets is drained in $£€. There have been plenty of swing trading opportunities this week and it will most likely be opportunities today.

So lets get down to business:

Womens:

S.Williams lost 2 points on serve yesterday which is just crazy. Well above expectations. Today she is a 1.05-06 favorit against garrigues. And as crazy as it sounds is value backing this in my world. I would never back this though. But id definately look to back at higher odds. As long as market is stable (no MTO etc) you can pretty safely back williams if she starts off bad. Due to the high liquidity in the markets.

Errani's odds is to high. Id definately look to back Errani. Backing from start and then adding more if she starts bad is an option. But you have to be able to withstand a big loss if the shit hits the fan. Id probably not take a position from start and se how it develops and try to get position on Errani at some point and get a swing and then re-invest.

Ivanovic is under-valued against Kerber. About same approach as for Errani's match with this one.

Dont know the latest news about Kanepi and her MTO against Hantuchova. But Sharapova is to short if Kanepi is up to standards. Easy lay of Sharapova.

Mens:

Nishikori's odds is a tad high, but I'm not taking a position from the start. I'm favoring Special K though.

Murray - Berdysh: Dunno really what to say, Odds is about right. If i have to choose a side to lean on it would be murray. But probably i would just lay who ever has the lead through out the match. Not super likely one of them would win 6-2 6-2.

Wawrinka - Tsonga. Looking to back Wawrinka at some point in the match.

Nadal - Ferrer. Nadal been super solid this week and winning easily. This is the first matchup this week where Nadals odds is clearly to low. Lets hope Ferrer can bring it and make it competetive and not make it a re-run of what happened in Mexico this februrary

GL @ the Markets.

/Sammy

Wed.Madrid - Should be a decent day of trading.

What a crazy day of tennis. Alot of favorites have had difficulties today. If you pick the right ones to trade its very hard to not make money on these matches.

Both Gasquet and Murray had problems aswell as Djokovic.

Anyways. This is the past.... Lets move on to wednesdays matches. As always i dont care who wins the match. As a trader on the markets this is not important.

Womens:

Im definately gonna lay Suarez and Azarenka. In my world these SP's are wrong. Suarez basically crushed Kanepi last week but i think its gonna be much tougher encounter this time.

Georges - Lepchenko should swing. Not taking a position initally there. Georges isn't the best frontrunner of all time so laying here is really easy if she takes first set for example. This match have good potential to swing loads.

Im not to sure about Mladen - Kiri... Id probably favor Kirilenko but im not happy backing at current price. Dunno really what to think about this match. I'll just trade the market.

Kerber - Kuznetsova. I'm not surprised if we see a SP of 1.70-75. For me 1.50-55 is more correct. So if thats the case im gonna "lean" on Kerber during the match. Im not gonna take a position from start.

Kvitova - Hantuchova. I'll only look to back Kvitova

Mens:

Alot of lays tomorrow in the mens. But here they are in chronological structure.

Berdysch, Monaco (easy lay), Tsonga, Nadal, Almagro, Wawrinka, Ferrer

Best lay tomorrow is probably Monaco. The otherones for me isnt that clear-cut. But im gonna base my trading on it, and take it from there. I'll also favor the WTA before the ATP. So we will see how many ATP matches i'll eventually trade.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

EDIT:

11.52: Yes Kanepi match is looking abit like i thought it would. Im hoping for a turnaround for Navarro now though. Should be somewhat likely. As long as Carla can keep it together. Kanepi is playing a highly aggressive style at the moment. And could easily start missing alot. its 6-3 *3-0 atm.

15.52: Not only me that thinks Monaco was to low yesterday night! Lets see how the match develops.