Friday, July 5, 2013

Wimbledon Mens Semi's

So it's time for the boys to compete for the 2 spots in the final.

First up is Djokovic-Del Potro today @ 14.00 CET. Djokovic is a healthy favorite @ 1.15 and I think market has done a good job pricing this match.

In the contest between Janowicz-Murray I find Murrays price @ 1.22 abit low. (80%). 1.35 looks more correct (~73%) to me.

I'm gonna wait for in-play and to find some value. Lets move on to the outrights market Djokovic is @ 1.75 , Murray @ 3 , Del Potro @ 17 , Janowicz @ 24

Just for fun I'm going to put odds on possible future finals. Having the outrights market in mind I think the market will have these odds:

Djokovic (1.60) - Murray (2.5).... Reasonable odds but I think ~1.80-1.90 for Djokovic is more reasonable.

Djokovic (1.10) - Janowicz (11) .... More correct odds should be around 1.22.

Murray (1.22) - Del Potro (5.2) ..... Market might put Murray lower but I think 1.30 would be more correct in this final.

And finally chocker final

Janowicz (2.20) - Del Potro (1.8) ... The public would favor Del Potro and consider ranking and so on but for me i'd reverse the odds and I'd have Janowicz as the favorite.

Alot of stuff could happen that would ofcourse change the possibilities of various outcomes. eg. injuries etc.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

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