Le Scoreboard Terrible

Roland Garros is underway if you have missed it! Doubt it... =)

Been a couple of hectic days to start off the tournament. With 14 matches going on at the same time its hard to choose whichones to focus on.Today Wednesday is a bit diffrent though with double matches starting so we have (only) 7 singles matches going on which is graspable (is this a even a word?). The doubles matches usually have no liquidity at all this early in the tournament.

So what about the blog title? I cant really remember that the scoreboards being this shitty last year? Didnt we have streams aswell? The slamtracker usually is pretty decent but this year its not up to standards. Never the less its really hard to make good decisions when sometimes the scoreboard is 2 balls behind the market. When its 1 ball behind, you can see on the market who won the ball. But more than that it, really really gets tough. Courtsiders are cleaning up, de luxe.

Matosevic finally one a singles main draw match in a grand slam (14 tries). This is how happy he got!

Matches will start in about an hour so Im gonna go out and cut the lawn before we start the days work.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Halfway thru Aussie Open

Yes we're almost a week into the first grand slam and I had a really good start to the week. But been struggling last couple of days to find any decent value. I'm really struggling with the high liqudity markets. Hard to get any really good value odds due to market maker having no spread at all basically and they pretty much always are infront of the queue with their speed (courtside info). Which is super annoying. Would be way more easy to make money if we where trading on the same terms. But it is what it is....

So I often "zoneout" in these circumstances. Which is not good obviously. But I'm working on it. I think basically I dont trust my strategies or theories in high liquid markets. Which makes me doubt myself alot and therefor not trade aswell.

The sultan @ centercourttrading have recommended a book "trading from your gut" which i picked up the other day. I must say it was a good read. And I think you can pickup alot from it. For you that have read it I find myself being a "left brain" person that are struggling with trusting my instincts and intuition. So I found it quite intresting really.


Much better start to this season. I remember being stuck about 2-3k at this point last season...


Stephane Robert the french lucky looser have made it to the 4th round and you can read a pretty amusing interview here. http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/news/interviews/2014-01-18/201401181390025203272.html

Now its time to get back to the markets. The last matches for the day starts in a few mintues.

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Aussie Open 2014

Hey!

So if your remotely interested in tennis you probably know that on monday this seasons first grand slam will be underway. So there will be plenty of matches to trade which is always nice.

Last week was pretty decent and unlike last year I had a more cautious approach to the season start than last year where I was very eager to make bank and got myself into a huge hole in the first few weeks. Last year I posted a $ 2k profit for january which is not great. (its not bad, but hear me out)

For me personally I think winning on average less than $5k a month is not an option. Then you are probably better off having a normal job and trading part-time. Due to the various factors like social security and pension. I mean being a professional sports trader or any type of gambler is cool and all but when you are at my age (30-ish) you have to take the future a lot more into consideration. Like pension and security like I mentioned before. If you are in your 20's i think that is not as big of a problem and you should probably have much bigger risk calculated just because time is not a factor in that case.

I don't know about you guys, what is your thoughts about this topic?

AO 2014 is around the corner, are your ready?

Tonight I'm taking a day off and recharging my batteries for the 10 days straight work that is ahead of me. My plan is to go to bed @ 9.00 pm and wake up @ 3-4 am and taking a nap in the afternoon. Pacific time is really the worst of them all.

Tomorrow I'll try to make some preparations and have a look at the draw and try to find some value in the outrights markets. If I find something cool I'll let you know tomorrow. Ok, until then have a good evening and stay sharp!

/Sammy

Wimbledon Mens Semi's

So it's time for the boys to compete for the 2 spots in the final.

First up is Djokovic-Del Potro today @ 14.00 CET. Djokovic is a healthy favorite @ 1.15 and I think market has done a good job pricing this match.

In the contest between Janowicz-Murray I find Murrays price @ 1.22 abit low. (80%). 1.35 looks more correct (~73%) to me.

I'm gonna wait for in-play and to find some value. Lets move on to the outrights market Djokovic is @ 1.75 , Murray @ 3 , Del Potro @ 17 , Janowicz @ 24

Just for fun I'm going to put odds on possible future finals. Having the outrights market in mind I think the market will have these odds:

Djokovic (1.60) - Murray (2.5).... Reasonable odds but I think ~1.80-1.90 for Djokovic is more reasonable.

Djokovic (1.10) - Janowicz (11) .... More correct odds should be around 1.22.

Murray (1.22) - Del Potro (5.2) ..... Market might put Murray lower but I think 1.30 would be more correct in this final.

And finally chocker final

Janowicz (2.20) - Del Potro (1.8) ... The public would favor Del Potro and consider ranking and so on but for me i'd reverse the odds and I'd have Janowicz as the favorite.

Alot of stuff could happen that would ofcourse change the possibilities of various outcomes. eg. injuries etc.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon Womens Semi's

First of all I want to say some words about the outrights market. Where the girl in super form Lisicki is @ 2.36 as I write this. It's very off for me. 1.74 against radwanska means she has to be atleast 1.40 favorite in the next match, for it being a breakeven proposition. 1.74*1.38 = 2.40


When i run simulations in possible future matchups between Lisicki - Bartoli & Lisicki - Flipkens. I have Lisicki as a ~1.80 favorite (1.70-1.90) against both of them.

This gives us 1.74*1.80 = 3.13

But then you might think "But Sammy haven't you forgot something? How about todays matchup against A.Radwanska?" And you are totally right. Today Lisicki's odds @ 1.75 is fine. I'd lean abit more towards even money than going the other way.

But we will start the afternoon with Bartoli against Flipkens. Market has Bartoli as a ~58% favorite at the moment but for me this is wrong. I think about ~67% (1.50) is more correct.

Just watching the outrights market who ever wins the semi between Bartoli & Flipkens will be under-valued in the final.

Who you got?

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon Mens Quarters

Mens quarters today @ 14.00 CET. And we have exiting matches to look forward to.

Kubot

First off im laying both super favorites, Murray & Djokovic for trading value. I think they are abit to low both of them but especially Murray. They will probably go thru to the semis both of them. But if they lost a set or two wouldn't surprise me at all.

I don't know why Del Potro is drifting... is it beacuse of his knee injury? Even money or Del Potro small favorite is more correct in my world. Should be a very entertaining match to trade.

In the all polish affair between Kubot and Janowicz. I think Janowicz's odds is low. I think 1.50-1.60 would be more viable odds.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon - Womens Quarters

It's quarters time for the ladies and they will start abit later now 14.00 CET. (13 GMT).

Todays matches are:

Lisicki in tears of joy after winning against S.Williams

A.Radwanska - Na Li: I cant really find any value in these odds and I wont take a position from start. If I had to pick a winner i'd say Na Li.

Lisicki - Kanepi: Market has Lisicki as a favorite. Rightfully so. But her pricing @ 1.37 is to low. 1.60-1.75 would be a much better pricing. I'm definately going to lay Lisicki and continue to trade in-play.

Petra Kvitova

Kvitova - Flipkens: I like flipkens odds here. Stats run much closer and Kvitova have been really hot or cold during wimbledon. Everytime I see Kvitova play I can't understand how its even remotely possible that they allow her to keep her belly. She is top 8 in the world and not even fit. I mean how good could she be if she was super fit? It's beyond my understanding.... its like thinking about space. Your brain malfunctions eventually.

This one could be a close one and a very good match to trade.

Stephens - Bartoli: Im on Bartoli this match. And i think her odds is very generous. I'd say 1.55-1.60 on Bartoli is much more correct.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon Week 2 - Monday

Kaia Kanepi

Have been busy this weekend. A good friend had his 30 years birthday this saturday. It was a very good party abit to good mayby.

For todays matches I find value in: Flipkens, Pironkova, Bartoli, Kanepi (abit uncertain), Mannarino, Berdysch.

Laying both Murray & Djokovic for trading purposes.

Stay Sharp!

Wimbledon!

After a good weekend of festivities it's time to focus on tennis again.

Tomorrow the third Grand Slam of the year starts and it's Wimbledon. Round 1 in all slams consists of 64 matches for both the men & women.

2012 winners: Roger Federer, Serena Williams

Avg. service hold:

Women: 69.4% (Break: 30.6%)

Men: 83.0% (Break: 17%)

Im not gonna speculate who wins wimbeldon but if I had to make one i'd say that S.Williams will most likely defend last years win. S.Williams worst opponent is probably herself. I haven't checked her odds in the winners market.

I haven't yet started to go through the matches for tomorrow. But I will focus on the WTA mainly cause trading ATP is quite time consuming due to 5 setters. And id rather trade more markets than few. But I'll have to see where the liqudity will be at aswell so there will be some focus on some ATP matches aswell.

Ok so have a good nights sleep it's gonna be a long week!

/Sammy