Wimbledon Mens Semi's

So it's time for the boys to compete for the 2 spots in the final.

First up is Djokovic-Del Potro today @ 14.00 CET. Djokovic is a healthy favorite @ 1.15 and I think market has done a good job pricing this match.

In the contest between Janowicz-Murray I find Murrays price @ 1.22 abit low. (80%). 1.35 looks more correct (~73%) to me.

I'm gonna wait for in-play and to find some value. Lets move on to the outrights market Djokovic is @ 1.75 , Murray @ 3 , Del Potro @ 17 , Janowicz @ 24

Just for fun I'm going to put odds on possible future finals. Having the outrights market in mind I think the market will have these odds:

Djokovic (1.60) - Murray (2.5).... Reasonable odds but I think ~1.80-1.90 for Djokovic is more reasonable.

Djokovic (1.10) - Janowicz (11) .... More correct odds should be around 1.22.

Murray (1.22) - Del Potro (5.2) ..... Market might put Murray lower but I think 1.30 would be more correct in this final.

And finally chocker final

Janowicz (2.20) - Del Potro (1.8) ... The public would favor Del Potro and consider ranking and so on but for me i'd reverse the odds and I'd have Janowicz as the favorite.

Alot of stuff could happen that would ofcourse change the possibilities of various outcomes. eg. injuries etc.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon Womens Semi's

First of all I want to say some words about the outrights market. Where the girl in super form Lisicki is @ 2.36 as I write this. It's very off for me. 1.74 against radwanska means she has to be atleast 1.40 favorite in the next match, for it being a breakeven proposition. 1.74*1.38 = 2.40


When i run simulations in possible future matchups between Lisicki - Bartoli & Lisicki - Flipkens. I have Lisicki as a ~1.80 favorite (1.70-1.90) against both of them.

This gives us 1.74*1.80 = 3.13

But then you might think "But Sammy haven't you forgot something? How about todays matchup against A.Radwanska?" And you are totally right. Today Lisicki's odds @ 1.75 is fine. I'd lean abit more towards even money than going the other way.

But we will start the afternoon with Bartoli against Flipkens. Market has Bartoli as a ~58% favorite at the moment but for me this is wrong. I think about ~67% (1.50) is more correct.

Just watching the outrights market who ever wins the semi between Bartoli & Flipkens will be under-valued in the final.

Who you got?

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon Mens Quarters

Mens quarters today @ 14.00 CET. And we have exiting matches to look forward to.

Kubot

First off im laying both super favorites, Murray & Djokovic for trading value. I think they are abit to low both of them but especially Murray. They will probably go thru to the semis both of them. But if they lost a set or two wouldn't surprise me at all.

I don't know why Del Potro is drifting... is it beacuse of his knee injury? Even money or Del Potro small favorite is more correct in my world. Should be a very entertaining match to trade.

In the all polish affair between Kubot and Janowicz. I think Janowicz's odds is low. I think 1.50-1.60 would be more viable odds.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon - Womens Quarters

It's quarters time for the ladies and they will start abit later now 14.00 CET. (13 GMT).

Todays matches are:

Lisicki in tears of joy after winning against S.Williams

A.Radwanska - Na Li: I cant really find any value in these odds and I wont take a position from start. If I had to pick a winner i'd say Na Li.

Lisicki - Kanepi: Market has Lisicki as a favorite. Rightfully so. But her pricing @ 1.37 is to low. 1.60-1.75 would be a much better pricing. I'm definately going to lay Lisicki and continue to trade in-play.

Petra Kvitova

Kvitova - Flipkens: I like flipkens odds here. Stats run much closer and Kvitova have been really hot or cold during wimbledon. Everytime I see Kvitova play I can't understand how its even remotely possible that they allow her to keep her belly. She is top 8 in the world and not even fit. I mean how good could she be if she was super fit? It's beyond my understanding.... its like thinking about space. Your brain malfunctions eventually.

This one could be a close one and a very good match to trade.

Stephens - Bartoli: Im on Bartoli this match. And i think her odds is very generous. I'd say 1.55-1.60 on Bartoli is much more correct.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon Week 2 - Monday

Kaia Kanepi

Have been busy this weekend. A good friend had his 30 years birthday this saturday. It was a very good party abit to good mayby.

For todays matches I find value in: Flipkens, Pironkova, Bartoli, Kanepi (abit uncertain), Mannarino, Berdysch.

Laying both Murray & Djokovic for trading purposes.

Stay Sharp!

Wimbledon day 5 - Raining

It doesn't look like we will have any play today other than @ the center court. It might be a couple of ours in the afternoon.


I might take this opportunity to take the day off actually to get stuff done around the house and various other things.

Stay Dry! /Sammy

Wimbledon day 4

I usually go through matches the day before. Plenty of matches where I think market have wrong prices.

For the laidies. I think Krumm, Halep, Keys, Vesnina, Zakopalova, Peng, Johansson, Kanepi has value.

Mens. Llodra, Przysiezny, Blake, Zemlja, Kudla, Raonic.

I don't think they will all win ofcourse and i really don't care who does as I have stated many times before. There is a big different between punting and trading.

They are warming up now on the courts.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon day 3

Today the market and I isn't at the same page at all. To me there is lot of wierd prices.

Undervalued womens: Lucic-Baroni, Birnerova, Cetkovska, Petkovic, Muguruza, Bartoli, Shvedova, Giorgi, Dolonc

Undervalued mens: Kuznetsov, Verdasco, Ram, De Schepper

I'm not gonna take a position pre-match in any of these matches. But i will be looking to trade in favor of these. I wouldn't be suprised at all if we see a couple of "upsets" today.

Medical Timeout (MTO)

For the super favorites Azarenka and Sharapova it shouldn't be any problem to get into the next round. But you should consider Azarenka's nasty fall last match have created somewhat of an buzz if she is fit or not. So taking this in consideration. Market could go absolute bananas if she takes an medical again or makes another nasty fall. Which you always should consider when trading. Try to assess possibilities for trainer and work that in your favor when trading. I try to take this in consideration before matches.

Laying a player taking a MTO is usually very profitable if you can get on early. There after 8-9 of 10 (I have not data to back this up, this is my general assessment) there is huge value on backing the player that is "hurt". Try to think in terms of if she or he where injured so badly wouldn't they already have forfeited the match. So many times market have overreacted several 100% percent in just speculations in a fortfeit.

It's not easy to trade a market when someone have taken a big fall or are obviously injured. But there is loads of money to be made on fear and greed generated in these circumastances.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon!

After a good weekend of festivities it's time to focus on tennis again.

Tomorrow the third Grand Slam of the year starts and it's Wimbledon. Round 1 in all slams consists of 64 matches for both the men & women.

2012 winners: Roger Federer, Serena Williams

Avg. service hold:

Women: 69.4% (Break: 30.6%)

Men: 83.0% (Break: 17%)

Im not gonna speculate who wins wimbeldon but if I had to make one i'd say that S.Williams will most likely defend last years win. S.Williams worst opponent is probably herself. I haven't checked her odds in the winners market.

I haven't yet started to go through the matches for tomorrow. But I will focus on the WTA mainly cause trading ATP is quite time consuming due to 5 setters. And id rather trade more markets than few. But I'll have to see where the liqudity will be at aswell so there will be some focus on some ATP matches aswell.

Ok so have a good nights sleep it's gonna be a long week!

/Sammy