Halfway thru Aussie Open

Yes we're almost a week into the first grand slam and I had a really good start to the week. But been struggling last couple of days to find any decent value. I'm really struggling with the high liqudity markets. Hard to get any really good value odds due to market maker having no spread at all basically and they pretty much always are infront of the queue with their speed (courtside info). Which is super annoying. Would be way more easy to make money if we where trading on the same terms. But it is what it is....

So I often "zoneout" in these circumstances. Which is not good obviously. But I'm working on it. I think basically I dont trust my strategies or theories in high liquid markets. Which makes me doubt myself alot and therefor not trade aswell.

The sultan @ centercourttrading have recommended a book "trading from your gut" which i picked up the other day. I must say it was a good read. And I think you can pickup alot from it. For you that have read it I find myself being a "left brain" person that are struggling with trusting my instincts and intuition. So I found it quite intresting really.


Much better start to this season. I remember being stuck about 2-3k at this point last season...


Stephane Robert the french lucky looser have made it to the 4th round and you can read a pretty amusing interview here. http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/news/interviews/2014-01-18/201401181390025203272.html

Now its time to get back to the markets. The last matches for the day starts in a few mintues.

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Wimbledon day 4

I usually go through matches the day before. Plenty of matches where I think market have wrong prices.

For the laidies. I think Krumm, Halep, Keys, Vesnina, Zakopalova, Peng, Johansson, Kanepi has value.

Mens. Llodra, Przysiezny, Blake, Zemlja, Kudla, Raonic.

I don't think they will all win ofcourse and i really don't care who does as I have stated many times before. There is a big different between punting and trading.

They are warming up now on the courts.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon day 3

Today the market and I isn't at the same page at all. To me there is lot of wierd prices.

Undervalued womens: Lucic-Baroni, Birnerova, Cetkovska, Petkovic, Muguruza, Bartoli, Shvedova, Giorgi, Dolonc

Undervalued mens: Kuznetsov, Verdasco, Ram, De Schepper

I'm not gonna take a position pre-match in any of these matches. But i will be looking to trade in favor of these. I wouldn't be suprised at all if we see a couple of "upsets" today.

Medical Timeout (MTO)

For the super favorites Azarenka and Sharapova it shouldn't be any problem to get into the next round. But you should consider Azarenka's nasty fall last match have created somewhat of an buzz if she is fit or not. So taking this in consideration. Market could go absolute bananas if she takes an medical again or makes another nasty fall. Which you always should consider when trading. Try to assess possibilities for trainer and work that in your favor when trading. I try to take this in consideration before matches.

Laying a player taking a MTO is usually very profitable if you can get on early. There after 8-9 of 10 (I have not data to back this up, this is my general assessment) there is huge value on backing the player that is "hurt". Try to think in terms of if she or he where injured so badly wouldn't they already have forfeited the match. So many times market have overreacted several 100% percent in just speculations in a fortfeit.

It's not easy to trade a market when someone have taken a big fall or are obviously injured. But there is loads of money to be made on fear and greed generated in these circumastances.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Doing house chores

Thursday and we have another delayed start in Neatherlands which was perfect. So I had time to do some various house work to prepare for tomorrows festivities.

Pironkova

Quarter-finals today and they are about to begin in about 10 minutes time.

I'm quickly going over which players i will be favoring in-play.

Pironkova, Hampton, Kirilenko (backing @ higher odds), U Radwanska, Hernych, Verdasco, Donskoy.

All these i feel should be lower in odds. Especially the girl over here ->

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wednesday

So there is a small delay before matches in Neatherlands starts which gives me time to write alittle about todays matches. I haven't got much time on my hands the upcoming weeks for writing blogposts. The last couple of days I have worked on the house, building a terass.

Klizan

So its basically building then trading all days. And on friday its midsummer here in sweden which is a traditional holiday. Where people meet, eat & get drunk basically. So we are having some friends over for that.

So for today I find Klizan small value against Fognini. I'm not taking a position initially but ill look to get some value in-play. High possibility there will be alot of pressure on both serves.

Feliciano Lopez have been playing super tennis on the grass and Monaco haven't played a competetive match yet this year on the surface. Monaco is know as a claycourter but he has a good record on grass and this could really be a much closer competition than odds say (Lopez 1.39). Its probably pretty clear by know i'm going to lay Lopez in-play.

Seppi v Harrison im expecting to be a really swingy match. Im probably going to trade both ways here. If I had to put in a bet pre-match i'd put it on Harrison which I find is more value @ 2.48.

Bartoli

Bartoli undervalued today against Li. Bartoli is really good on grass and very undervalued against Li today. Laying Li inplay.

Looking to back Stosur, Kerber, Kirilenko, Watson, Vinci

Matches going to start any minute now so I'm going to round up this post. I do post some trades I do if I have time on twitter. Mayby it can be of any help for you guys.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

EDIT: Kuznetsov very good value today.

Hertogenbosch & Eastbourne: Joint-events

Eastbourne

Week 25 we have 2 joint event action in Hertogenbosch & Eastbourne. Both of the tournaments have more than average breaks of serve than the tour avg. for grass. Due to the fact that quality players often doesn't choose to play these events before a Grand Slam.

I'm abit suprised alot of the top WTA players is playing in Eastbourne though.

Hertogenbosch

Today Arvidsson plays against Morita. And the swedish #1 should have a good chance against Morita. Even though her form is very very poor.

Lino could make life difficult on Cibulkova aswell.

Lorenzi i feel is abit under-valued today against De Bakker. De Bakker should be a much better grass courter than he really is. Or atleast thats what past results say.

There is alot of matches today that is really hard to predict due to players almost never have played a grass match on tour level. Alot of random event may happen today.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Friday week 24 - Q-finals & semi's

Dennis Kudla

So today there is quite a few matches where I totally disagree with the market. I might be abit naïve but today i think there is loads of flaws in the markets.

Hewitt should be much closer in odds against Del Potro.

I dont think Kudla will win but could really make life difficult for Tsonga which is trading 1.10 now and for me that is very low. The young american is perfoming well on the grass.

Backing 1.05 on Murray is definately not a fist pump back. Im probably gonna lay this and reverse it on Murray if he trades higher.

Monfils should be much closer in odds to Haas in my world aswell.

Gael Monfils

Lisicki to low for me aswell playing against Alison Riske.

For the clay courts Petkovic should make it alot tougher on Jankovic than the odds say. Halep - Safarova should be a really close one aswell. But I think Halep will take it in the end.

Vekic is a really intresting player also that starts off the day against Cirstea in Birmingham. I hope she can make it intresting against the inform Sorana.

As im writing it seems "smart" money is piling up laying Cirstea 1.60.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Week 24 - Grass season

I had some days off and went to Germany for a little trip with my girlfriend. We ended up in Berlin & Lübeck.We had great weather and a really good time. There is so much to see in Berlin its really hard to find time to do it all. Was surprised about Lübeck it was really nice, but 1 day is enough. We where abit in luck cause there was this wine festival going on i Lübeck. I was drinking sekt (german champange) all night from south german wine producers for basically nothing.

Gerry Webber Open - Halle

Aegon Classic/Championship - Birmingham

Clay season is basically over. There is a number of tournement left but left but officially it's kind of over. As i came home pretty late yesterday. I went to bed earlier than normal. I haven't really checked the matches for today which is not great. But stats is really hard to find for grass. Some players haven't recorded a single match on grass. Which makes it hard for me and betting companys to come up with decent lines.

Average hold for both men and women on grass is significantlly higher than on other surfaces. So we can expect in generall less breaks.

Nurnberger WTA Int'

 There is a clay tournament this week in Nurnberger which is a new tournament. Hard to say how that clay play so we will see what info comes about and what numbers that turns up.

I'm getting ready myself for todays action and im not finished so I cant really get you any predictions for today. If I find anything intresting I will post it later. Im going write an article about hardware and software this week. I have alot on my plate though but hopefully I will have time to do it abit later.

GL @ the markets /Sammy

Everybody seems to love a P/L screenie...

May 2013

Day 10 Roland Garros

It's time for quarterfinals in Paris, France. Today we have 2 womens matches and 2 mens on the card. There is alot of doubles going on aswell but I have some stuff to do around the house so i dont think i will get involved in this. But lets go through the singles matches today....

Like most matches i find S.Williams being value at these crazy prices. But backing from start is not for me. I'm going to back S.Williams if she trades higher.

A.Radwanska against Errani could get alot more intresting. The 1.64 (61%) odds on Radwanska is fine. Predicted holds for this match is very low. And trading breaks will most likely be a generous offer. I'm hoping for a 3 setter with alot of drama in the mix.

T.Robredo

Robredo - Ferrer: Will the fairytale continue? I doubt it. Having 3 tough 5 setters in the legs and the emotional drain after the last one. Robredo cried of happiness after winning against almagro. It was almost like had won the whole tournament. I think it would take a lot to reboot emotionally and physically to beat an inform Ferrer over another 5 sets. 1.07 is very low though nothing i'm going to back.

The main attraction today is definately the clash between Tsonga vs Federer. Market has Federer at a healthy 1.60 which I find high. After Federers poor performance against Simon the other day and Tsonga looking really solid in his previous matches during RG. I think market has overreacted abit though. For me i'd say 1.33-1.40 would have been a much more solid odds on Federer. It's definately gonna be a intresting match to watch and hopefully trade. GL @ the markets. /Sammy

Federer & Tsonga

Day 9 Roland Garros

Second part of Round 4 is coming today and markets have done a pretty good job at setting odds for today.

I think odds on Haas is very generous against his meeting with Youzhny. Alot of it has to do with fatigue speculations. We will see tomorrow. But if Haas doesn't give any clear signals on being fatigued. Then its alot of value on him.

Tommy Haas

The contest between Wawrinka - Gasquet. For me they have the wrong favorite here. And I will trade accordingly. I will not take any position pre-match though.

Laying either Nadal or Djokovic isn't terrible. Not that i think they will loose but for trading value.

I'm definately going to lay Azarenka tomorrow. I'm not suprised if it got really ugly for her tomorrow.

Francesca Schiavone

Mattek-Sands against Kirilenko could be a very swingy match. Both players are abit streaky. Especially Mattek-Sands. So i will lay who ever has the lead basically.

Pretty much same goes for Hampton against Jankovic. But Jankovic is a bit of value if I had to just put in a single bet pre-match.

And last i'll be looking to back Sharapova if she trades higher.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 8 Roland Garros

No clear value in any matches for me today...

Kevin Andersson

Todays mens matches:
Tsonga - Troicki
Anderson - Ferrer
Robredo - Almagro
Simon - Federer

Im going to lay Ferrer & Tsonga and possibly Almagro also. But Robredos has 2 tough 5 setters in the bag. There should be some drama in atleast one of these 3 matches. Hard to say which one though. Stats say Tsonga - Trocki should be much closer but my feeling says the total opposite. But what i have learned over the years is that leave emotions somewhere else.

If Federer starts bad against Simon today im going to definately back him at some points.

Womens:
S.Williams - Vinci
Kuznetsova - Kerber
A.Radwanska - Ivanovic
Suarez Navarro - Errani

Like Federer match im going to Back Williams if she trades higher.

The other womens matches could be very random, so im going to pick good prices to lay the one in the lead. I think SP's are decent though so no positions from start.

Gl @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 7 Roland Garros

Cornet

Took the bike to the westcoast to visit a friend for some barbeque and beers yesterday evening so I just arrived back home in time for todays tennis.

There are some intresting matches today aswell. Action already started on 2 of them.

Cornet - Azarenka... Azarenka probably wins this in the end but should be alot closer than 1.07. I'm basically laying Azarenka serve every single game cause there is good value in it and then hedging whatever the outcome is. Hoping Cornet holds serve is a breakeven proposition.

Ormaechea should make life abit difficult for the Mattek-Sands. And price is very low on Mattek.

Schiavones odds is abit to high. But im going to trade low-risk spots basically. Never know with these laidies. Usually doesnt make any sense. Its so random its almost predictable.

When running numbers on Paire Nishikori. Nishikori should be a healthy favorit. Evens is a steal. But for me id rather lay Paire at a lower price. So ive been waiting. After nishikori's early break in first set, made a big overreaction which seem very common in the mens markets. As i'm writing Paire broke back now and its 40-15 *2-3 in paires serve. Anyways Nishikori is value.

Nishikori

I find value on Wawrinka aswell, but im going to wait for a bigger price.


Other than that there isn't anything super clear. Value today. Gonna trade overreactions in-play.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 6 Roland Garros

Chardy

Some matches left from yesterday... So have a look at yesterdays post for some thoughts about them.

Today i feel markets is much more effecient in their odds for the 3d round matches today. But we have still lots of intresting matches from postponed from yesterday.

But upset for today is probably Chardy against Tsonga. I find 1.25 very very low. Chardy has the game to beat all these big favorites, and has proven it in the past.

I think there is some value in Anderson today aswell, not much but 5-6%.

Thats about it in the mens for todays Round 3 matches.

For the womens i think Cetkovska is under-valued against Vinci. Her comeback have been ok. I think her game is up to par beacuse recent results do indicate that. Should be much closer in odds.

Puig

Then we have the young gun Puig against CSN. Could easily be an upset here, atleast it could be very swingy which is great.

Matches is about to start. GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 5 Roland Garros

Bouchard

Some chances for rain delay today, I've heard 30-60% so its pretty likely. Latest news is that we will get a couple of hours of play in now

There should be alot of opportunities today for good trading today.

Again today Schmiedlova have great value against hampton today. Aswell is King against Stephens. Kvitova & Schiavone is giving us value aswell.

Beck

Li-MattekSands will probably be a much closer contest than the odds predict. Im going to lay, lay, lay. hedge green. Then lay green and see what happens. Thats the plan anyways. If Li destroys Mattek i'll just take it on the chin.

Backing Stosur if she starts bad against Mladenovic. Id like 1.70-1.80ish something. first. If Mladen takes first set. I'll have to start trading some otherwise potential losses will get out of hand.

Sock

Shvedova - Ormachea. Dan @ tennisratings have Shvedova at pre-matches which is alright. I dont think this will be a fist pump win. It could be much more drama. And why missout on a potential swingy match.

Laying the huge favs in the womens matches today. Both Sharapova and Azarenka. Bouchard and Beck probably wont upset but we could get some swings here with cheap lays.

There are alot of flaws in market today in the mens bracket but I dont have time to write any more. But if I have to write one. I'd say Jack Sock to make it really hard on Haas. Easy multiple lays.

 GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 4 Roland Garros

So i got some time over here beacuse its ony ATP matches going on at the moment. Alot of WTA matches was postponed to today due to the rain yesterday.

Schmiedlova beat Wickmayer in a 3 setter. Wickmayer dictating play alot but at the cost of alot of UE's which cost her the match basically.

Johanna Larsson (Jo-Lo)

Matches coming up today is the swede (yay!) Larsson which i think have a good chance of beating Cirstea. Probably ranking and name that has made its mark on the starting price. Should be much more close to evens in my world.

For the same reasons i find Puig's nice as she takes on Keys in the young gun battle for today.

Shelby Rogers

Im abit curious to see what Shelby Rogers can do to hurt Suarez-Navarro. If there is gonna be a big upset for today i think this is it. I've already layed CSN but its abit of an gamble.

There are some ridicolous prices on the Mens matches. Especially after first set. For example was Seppi trading 1.10 after winning first set (SP 1.40) Kavcic lost first set 6-0 though. But still its only 1-0 to Seppi in sets. Its best of 5 sets not 3 sets. Seems like market tend to forget that alot. I have Kavcic as undervalued in that match so it was pretty easy lay for me. Good that he could make it competetive aswell.

Seems like WTA matches is going to get underway soon.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 3 - Roland Garros

30 min to kick-off, intresting matches today aswell.

Mens:

Vesely

Im going to lay these guys today. Kohlschreiber, Wawrinka, Djokovic, Verdasco. For trading purposes.

Its gonna be intresting to watch Vesely, He is a youngster that has been a beast on the futures & challangers. His first ATP match and Grand Slam might be to much for him but I think he will put up a good fight. What does he have to loose? 

Hanescu to beat Tomic. But i will look for better odds in-play.

Womens: Hard to make good predictions today on alot of matches due to alot of players dont have enough data to make good assumptions. But there are a few.

Govortsova to beat Bartoli isn't bad. This match can be an really epic one. Govortsova tends to have big problems closing out matches. Seems like she looses focus when she has a healthy lead.

Dont be suprised in a Schmiedlova upset, beating Wickmayer.

Schmiedlova

I like Jankovic aswell but a bit higher odds would be much nicer.  Same goes for Duque Marino & Peng.

Davis to beat Mladenovic. She had problems against big serving Hradecka last week. Mladenovic has a big one aswell which is the only negative.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 2 Roland Garros

I was supposed to write something about todays matches. But i woke up really late due to the fact I went to bed 03.30 in the night.

I was abit dissapointed at my performance today at the markets. You might think I did have a bad day. On the contrary really, money wise it was ok. But I usually have a plan for every single match I trade. Not in super detail but if X happens i'll do Y basically. And as the match progresses X & Y changes ofcourse. But when there is so many matches going on at the same time as it where today and there is good liqudity and market maker at every single one of them. There is to much to choose from. So i end up doing nothing instead of executing. I don't know if this makes any sense but i was really tilted for a while cause i couldn't focus.

So tomorrow i'll just make a decision to just have specific chosen matches open. (I usually have all markets open that is running just for monitor purpose. Hence the information overload.)

Enough about that rambling.... Today Haase (or #hahahahaase in the twitter world) finally ended his record tiebreak loosing streak. "Hopefully I'm not going to lose another 17 in a row"  

I have to look through tomorrows matches now. If it doesn't get to late I'll write down my top picks for tomorrow.

/Sammy

Wednesday: The action continues

Another day, another dollar.... to me is the plan.

Brussels had another day of rain. Must be terrible to be a tournament director and there is nothing you can do about it. Hopefully we will get some action there today. Its kind of perfect that it has rained. I was abit worried about missing value in some matches due to the fact that it was supposed to run 5-6 matches at the same time during the day. But now when we are at round 16 of Strasbourg I think i will be able to catch pretty much all of it.

All plays for Brussels still stands from yesterday. So you just have to check yesterdays analysis for the matches in Brussel.

Todays matches:

Giorgi - Bouchard: Giorgi really crushed Bartoli. There was no stream from Bouchards win today so we can't say for sure how the ankle is but it seemed to be a fairly easy win from what the scoreboard was saying. (I followed the match point by point). So we have to assume it's alright. Predicted hold is very very low. We should expect breaks. This one on paper has the features for a very swing and good match to trade.

Tatishvili - Niculescu: Tatishvili won over Garcia which was abit of an upset yesterday. Think Garcia didn't play that match well strategic at all. Today she plays against Niculescu who won in a 3 setter against Erakovic. Market is about right here @ 1.34. I'll just trade this in-play if anything comes up.

Cornet - Linette: Havent seen Linette play so i dont know really what kind of player she is. But her small amount of clay stats is very impressive. Lay Cornet for sure. Epic break fest? Possibility high.

Rogers - Scheepers: Dont know what to think... I'll leave this for mayby some in-play trades.

Torro-Flor - Pennetta: Panetta haven't looked good at all lately. But today we have value on her against Torro-Flor. As the odds say i'm expecting a swingy match. If I had to make a bet only i'd stick my money on Pennetta. (data play)

Doi - Hsieh: I'll be laying Hsieh, first time they play eachother on clay. This is likley to be closer than their previous meetings.

Davis - Hradecka: Expect alot of holds. Hradecka didnt loose a single game on serve yesterday i think. Her game revolvs alot around her serve. Very hard to win against when she is on. Forecast is saying high number of holds for both players this match. There is a small value on Davis.

Larsson - Razzano: Value on Razzano, Looking to back her in play. She seems abit "french". (having a hard time closing out matches) eg. giving away games.

I havent crunched numbers for the mens matches today.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Tuesday: Wierd prices...

Big day of tennis! 

As there is to many matches to handle today im just gonna focus on the ladies today in my trading. If i find any ridiculous in the mens ill let you know.

Brussels:
Arvidsson - Peng: Our best player is playing today, always fun. And they have a feed from that match so I'm definately going to monitor it. Arvidsson's form lately isn't the best but after crunching numbers, I find 1.50 very low on Peng. To much heart and no logic in this play? I think it's fine....

Zhang - Rybarikova: Data on this match is not good but last year rybarikova has 0-3 on clay. I doubt this is her favorite surface. Zhang have been doing pretty decent on the dirt. Numbers also say that Rybarikova shouldn't win this 67% of the time. A lay is probably worth some money.

Vandeweghe-Goerges: There is nothing wrong in laying Georges in this match. We shouldn't expect to many breaks in this match. Projected holds are well over tour average.

Kanepi - Cibulkova: Tough opening match for both girls. Draw haven't been nice to either of them. Odds is about right so i'm not taking a position from start. Trading this in-play. This one could definately swing.

Flipkens - Keys: Computer says that this match is way off in odds. Flipkens record last year is 1-3, Keys 4-2. If Keys serves well she should probably win this match.

Wickmayer - Hampton: Hampton is one of my favorite players but she hasn't been playing well lately and her record on clay is not good at all. Wickmayer's odds looks like value. Predicted hold on hampton is under 50% so we should expect Wickmayer to break her plenty.

Oprandi - Oudin: I find odds here to be pretty decent. This could turn out to be a really swingy match with alot of breaks. So you could pretty much lay who ever takes the lead.

Strasbourg: 

Bartoli - Giorgi: Upset alert, Bartoli haven't been good on the dirt. Computer also says this should be alot closer than SP says. Expect more breaks than normal.

Larsson - Cetkovska: If i where excited about Arvidssons chances today. Im not that keen on Larsson today. Cetkovska is coming back now from injury(?) she hasnt played in a while. So thats why i think Larsson is a favorite here. I'm just trading this in-play. I dont know if this is on stream but that would help alot to get a feel for how Cetkovska is performing. Predicted hold is very low. Could be a killer match to trade.

McHale - Davis: After crunching some numbers this 1.35 on McHale is very flawed. This is a lay, and if McHale takes the lead ill lay even more and then some more. Expect alot of breaks.

Cornet - Johansson: Break fest!

Beck - Hsieh: This one will probably feature alot of breaks aswell. Data is favoring Beck handsomly.

Doi - Pliskova: Wrong favorite here.

Here is some matches ill be looking to back the favorite if they trail.

Garcia, Razzano,

Mens:
Monfils is definately a lay.

Lay Stakhovsky.