Day 11 Roland Garros

Federers performance today was not even close to what I expected. Tsonga played super. Serving like a beast. He definately deserved to win. Errani and Radwanska played out pretty much as i expected. Alot of breaks. Myself and my account would have been much happier if Radwanska had taken the tiebreak in the 2nd set.

2nd half of the quarters will get underway tomorrow. I find these big matches really hard to find any real value to be honest. Market is doing a good job and I usually wait for in-play trading and see what happens.

Kirilenko

Jelena Jankovic (JJ)

But there is one match i will take position from start and it's the clash between Kirilenko - Azarenka. I find these 2 much closer on paper. I was abit disapointed in Schiavones performance in Azarenkas last match. She held serve once and it was her first service game of the match if i remember correctly. Schiavone did her job on the return though. But its hard to win matches if you dont hold serve. This matchup though should be different. Im expecting a decent amount of holds for both girls. 1.19 as the current odds is at is to low in my world and I'm laying azarenka pre-match. A couple of holds each and market usually corrects around 10 ticks. Depends some on how easy they hold etc but this could be a very very intresting match for trading.

Jankovic - Sharapova at first glance should be a fist pump Sharapova win. But Jankovic's performance have been getting better and better this year on clay, key for JJ is getting a high 1st serve % in her 2nd serve is very weak and sharapova is probably one of the best in the world at taking advantage of this. Im probably not going to take a position initially here.

Both favorites in the womens matches tomorrow have been looking very focused and sharp during this years RG. But there is a more than a decent chance atleast one of these 2 matches should get very dramatic and lucrative.

In the mens we will see Djokovic - Haas & Nadal - Wawrinka. To be honest i don't have a clue what will happen. Probably 2 solid wins for the huge favorites. I'll just wait and make my decisions in-play.

I got a question on twitter about hardware & software. Im going to write a post about it tomorrow hopefully, when I get some downtime.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 10 Roland Garros

It's time for quarterfinals in Paris, France. Today we have 2 womens matches and 2 mens on the card. There is alot of doubles going on aswell but I have some stuff to do around the house so i dont think i will get involved in this. But lets go through the singles matches today....

Like most matches i find S.Williams being value at these crazy prices. But backing from start is not for me. I'm going to back S.Williams if she trades higher.

A.Radwanska against Errani could get alot more intresting. The 1.64 (61%) odds on Radwanska is fine. Predicted holds for this match is very low. And trading breaks will most likely be a generous offer. I'm hoping for a 3 setter with alot of drama in the mix.

T.Robredo

Robredo - Ferrer: Will the fairytale continue? I doubt it. Having 3 tough 5 setters in the legs and the emotional drain after the last one. Robredo cried of happiness after winning against almagro. It was almost like had won the whole tournament. I think it would take a lot to reboot emotionally and physically to beat an inform Ferrer over another 5 sets. 1.07 is very low though nothing i'm going to back.

The main attraction today is definately the clash between Tsonga vs Federer. Market has Federer at a healthy 1.60 which I find high. After Federers poor performance against Simon the other day and Tsonga looking really solid in his previous matches during RG. I think market has overreacted abit though. For me i'd say 1.33-1.40 would have been a much more solid odds on Federer. It's definately gonna be a intresting match to watch and hopefully trade. GL @ the markets. /Sammy

Federer & Tsonga

Day 8 Roland Garros

No clear value in any matches for me today...

Kevin Andersson

Todays mens matches:
Tsonga - Troicki
Anderson - Ferrer
Robredo - Almagro
Simon - Federer

Im going to lay Ferrer & Tsonga and possibly Almagro also. But Robredos has 2 tough 5 setters in the bag. There should be some drama in atleast one of these 3 matches. Hard to say which one though. Stats say Tsonga - Trocki should be much closer but my feeling says the total opposite. But what i have learned over the years is that leave emotions somewhere else.

If Federer starts bad against Simon today im going to definately back him at some points.

Womens:
S.Williams - Vinci
Kuznetsova - Kerber
A.Radwanska - Ivanovic
Suarez Navarro - Errani

Like Federer match im going to Back Williams if she trades higher.

The other womens matches could be very random, so im going to pick good prices to lay the one in the lead. I think SP's are decent though so no positions from start.

Gl @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 7 Roland Garros

Cornet

Took the bike to the westcoast to visit a friend for some barbeque and beers yesterday evening so I just arrived back home in time for todays tennis.

There are some intresting matches today aswell. Action already started on 2 of them.

Cornet - Azarenka... Azarenka probably wins this in the end but should be alot closer than 1.07. I'm basically laying Azarenka serve every single game cause there is good value in it and then hedging whatever the outcome is. Hoping Cornet holds serve is a breakeven proposition.

Ormaechea should make life abit difficult for the Mattek-Sands. And price is very low on Mattek.

Schiavones odds is abit to high. But im going to trade low-risk spots basically. Never know with these laidies. Usually doesnt make any sense. Its so random its almost predictable.

When running numbers on Paire Nishikori. Nishikori should be a healthy favorit. Evens is a steal. But for me id rather lay Paire at a lower price. So ive been waiting. After nishikori's early break in first set, made a big overreaction which seem very common in the mens markets. As i'm writing Paire broke back now and its 40-15 *2-3 in paires serve. Anyways Nishikori is value.

Nishikori

I find value on Wawrinka aswell, but im going to wait for a bigger price.


Other than that there isn't anything super clear. Value today. Gonna trade overreactions in-play.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 5 Roland Garros

Bouchard

Some chances for rain delay today, I've heard 30-60% so its pretty likely. Latest news is that we will get a couple of hours of play in now

There should be alot of opportunities today for good trading today.

Again today Schmiedlova have great value against hampton today. Aswell is King against Stephens. Kvitova & Schiavone is giving us value aswell.

Beck

Li-MattekSands will probably be a much closer contest than the odds predict. Im going to lay, lay, lay. hedge green. Then lay green and see what happens. Thats the plan anyways. If Li destroys Mattek i'll just take it on the chin.

Backing Stosur if she starts bad against Mladenovic. Id like 1.70-1.80ish something. first. If Mladen takes first set. I'll have to start trading some otherwise potential losses will get out of hand.

Sock

Shvedova - Ormachea. Dan @ tennisratings have Shvedova at pre-matches which is alright. I dont think this will be a fist pump win. It could be much more drama. And why missout on a potential swingy match.

Laying the huge favs in the womens matches today. Both Sharapova and Azarenka. Bouchard and Beck probably wont upset but we could get some swings here with cheap lays.

There are alot of flaws in market today in the mens bracket but I dont have time to write any more. But if I have to write one. I'd say Jack Sock to make it really hard on Haas. Easy multiple lays.

 GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 4 Roland Garros

So i got some time over here beacuse its ony ATP matches going on at the moment. Alot of WTA matches was postponed to today due to the rain yesterday.

Schmiedlova beat Wickmayer in a 3 setter. Wickmayer dictating play alot but at the cost of alot of UE's which cost her the match basically.

Johanna Larsson (Jo-Lo)

Matches coming up today is the swede (yay!) Larsson which i think have a good chance of beating Cirstea. Probably ranking and name that has made its mark on the starting price. Should be much more close to evens in my world.

For the same reasons i find Puig's nice as she takes on Keys in the young gun battle for today.

Shelby Rogers

Im abit curious to see what Shelby Rogers can do to hurt Suarez-Navarro. If there is gonna be a big upset for today i think this is it. I've already layed CSN but its abit of an gamble.

There are some ridicolous prices on the Mens matches. Especially after first set. For example was Seppi trading 1.10 after winning first set (SP 1.40) Kavcic lost first set 6-0 though. But still its only 1-0 to Seppi in sets. Its best of 5 sets not 3 sets. Seems like market tend to forget that alot. I have Kavcic as undervalued in that match so it was pretty easy lay for me. Good that he could make it competetive aswell.

Seems like WTA matches is going to get underway soon.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 3 - Roland Garros

30 min to kick-off, intresting matches today aswell.

Mens:

Vesely

Im going to lay these guys today. Kohlschreiber, Wawrinka, Djokovic, Verdasco. For trading purposes.

Its gonna be intresting to watch Vesely, He is a youngster that has been a beast on the futures & challangers. His first ATP match and Grand Slam might be to much for him but I think he will put up a good fight. What does he have to loose? 

Hanescu to beat Tomic. But i will look for better odds in-play.

Womens: Hard to make good predictions today on alot of matches due to alot of players dont have enough data to make good assumptions. But there are a few.

Govortsova to beat Bartoli isn't bad. This match can be an really epic one. Govortsova tends to have big problems closing out matches. Seems like she looses focus when she has a healthy lead.

Dont be suprised in a Schmiedlova upset, beating Wickmayer.

Schmiedlova

I like Jankovic aswell but a bit higher odds would be much nicer.  Same goes for Duque Marino & Peng.

Davis to beat Mladenovic. She had problems against big serving Hradecka last week. Mladenovic has a big one aswell which is the only negative.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 2 Roland Garros

I was supposed to write something about todays matches. But i woke up really late due to the fact I went to bed 03.30 in the night.

I was abit dissapointed at my performance today at the markets. You might think I did have a bad day. On the contrary really, money wise it was ok. But I usually have a plan for every single match I trade. Not in super detail but if X happens i'll do Y basically. And as the match progresses X & Y changes ofcourse. But when there is so many matches going on at the same time as it where today and there is good liqudity and market maker at every single one of them. There is to much to choose from. So i end up doing nothing instead of executing. I don't know if this makes any sense but i was really tilted for a while cause i couldn't focus.

So tomorrow i'll just make a decision to just have specific chosen matches open. (I usually have all markets open that is running just for monitor purpose. Hence the information overload.)

Enough about that rambling.... Today Haase (or #hahahahaase in the twitter world) finally ended his record tiebreak loosing streak. "Hopefully I'm not going to lose another 17 in a row"  

I have to look through tomorrows matches now. If it doesn't get to late I'll write down my top picks for tomorrow.

/Sammy

Latency

I cant really remember how it was last year at Roland Garros but result updates from today was not great. Basically you have to watch the market maker to know the score. Cause scoreboards are 10 seconds behind. Trading short term during this slam will be very very difficult. I didn't trade the whole session today i got in pretty late. But managed to get a healthy green on Williams vs U.Radwanska.

I did watch alot of other markets and yes it's very hard to get decent odds due to the latency but im going to work more on long term trades for this slam.

I'm pretty tired right now. I have gone through all of the round 1 matches now and there are some intresting matches tomorrow. From the top of my head i think Sijsling is super value. I like Navarros chances tomorrow against an inform Halep.

I will probably make some comments before matches starts tomorrow. Now its time for bed.

ZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzz

/Sammy

Happy mothersday!

Unlike the rest of the world. Here in sweden it's mothersday today. So i'm going to 2 different dinners. I'd rather stay home and trade Roland-Garros. But we will see if i might manage to get back in time for the late matches today.

GL @ the markets.

EDIT: Apparently bet365 doesnt broadcast during RG. Neither for UK or Swedish residents. If you come from a different country and can get the bet365 feed. Let me know, thanks.