Wimbledon - Womens Quarters

It's quarters time for the ladies and they will start abit later now 14.00 CET. (13 GMT).

Todays matches are:

Lisicki in tears of joy after winning against S.Williams

A.Radwanska - Na Li: I cant really find any value in these odds and I wont take a position from start. If I had to pick a winner i'd say Na Li.

Lisicki - Kanepi: Market has Lisicki as a favorite. Rightfully so. But her pricing @ 1.37 is to low. 1.60-1.75 would be a much better pricing. I'm definately going to lay Lisicki and continue to trade in-play.

Petra Kvitova

Kvitova - Flipkens: I like flipkens odds here. Stats run much closer and Kvitova have been really hot or cold during wimbledon. Everytime I see Kvitova play I can't understand how its even remotely possible that they allow her to keep her belly. She is top 8 in the world and not even fit. I mean how good could she be if she was super fit? It's beyond my understanding.... its like thinking about space. Your brain malfunctions eventually.

This one could be a close one and a very good match to trade.

Stephens - Bartoli: Im on Bartoli this match. And i think her odds is very generous. I'd say 1.55-1.60 on Bartoli is much more correct.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon Week 2 - Monday

Kaia Kanepi

Have been busy this weekend. A good friend had his 30 years birthday this saturday. It was a very good party abit to good mayby.

For todays matches I find value in: Flipkens, Pironkova, Bartoli, Kanepi (abit uncertain), Mannarino, Berdysch.

Laying both Murray & Djokovic for trading purposes.

Stay Sharp!

Wimbledon day 5 - Raining

It doesn't look like we will have any play today other than @ the center court. It might be a couple of ours in the afternoon.


I might take this opportunity to take the day off actually to get stuff done around the house and various other things.

Stay Dry! /Sammy

Wimbledon day 4

I usually go through matches the day before. Plenty of matches where I think market have wrong prices.

For the laidies. I think Krumm, Halep, Keys, Vesnina, Zakopalova, Peng, Johansson, Kanepi has value.

Mens. Llodra, Przysiezny, Blake, Zemlja, Kudla, Raonic.

I don't think they will all win ofcourse and i really don't care who does as I have stated many times before. There is a big different between punting and trading.

They are warming up now on the courts.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon day 3

Today the market and I isn't at the same page at all. To me there is lot of wierd prices.

Undervalued womens: Lucic-Baroni, Birnerova, Cetkovska, Petkovic, Muguruza, Bartoli, Shvedova, Giorgi, Dolonc

Undervalued mens: Kuznetsov, Verdasco, Ram, De Schepper

I'm not gonna take a position pre-match in any of these matches. But i will be looking to trade in favor of these. I wouldn't be suprised at all if we see a couple of "upsets" today.

Medical Timeout (MTO)

For the super favorites Azarenka and Sharapova it shouldn't be any problem to get into the next round. But you should consider Azarenka's nasty fall last match have created somewhat of an buzz if she is fit or not. So taking this in consideration. Market could go absolute bananas if she takes an medical again or makes another nasty fall. Which you always should consider when trading. Try to assess possibilities for trainer and work that in your favor when trading. I try to take this in consideration before matches.

Laying a player taking a MTO is usually very profitable if you can get on early. There after 8-9 of 10 (I have not data to back this up, this is my general assessment) there is huge value on backing the player that is "hurt". Try to think in terms of if she or he where injured so badly wouldn't they already have forfeited the match. So many times market have overreacted several 100% percent in just speculations in a fortfeit.

It's not easy to trade a market when someone have taken a big fall or are obviously injured. But there is loads of money to be made on fear and greed generated in these circumastances.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon!

After a good weekend of festivities it's time to focus on tennis again.

Tomorrow the third Grand Slam of the year starts and it's Wimbledon. Round 1 in all slams consists of 64 matches for both the men & women.

2012 winners: Roger Federer, Serena Williams

Avg. service hold:

Women: 69.4% (Break: 30.6%)

Men: 83.0% (Break: 17%)

Im not gonna speculate who wins wimbeldon but if I had to make one i'd say that S.Williams will most likely defend last years win. S.Williams worst opponent is probably herself. I haven't checked her odds in the winners market.

I haven't yet started to go through the matches for tomorrow. But I will focus on the WTA mainly cause trading ATP is quite time consuming due to 5 setters. And id rather trade more markets than few. But I'll have to see where the liqudity will be at aswell so there will be some focus on some ATP matches aswell.

Ok so have a good nights sleep it's gonna be a long week!

/Sammy

Midsummer!

Happy midsummer!

Today i wont be trading at all. We are expecting people to arrive in a moment. Just a couple that we are gonna play a match of tennis against. The other couple arrives abit later due to the doctor worked night yesterday.

The typical swedish midsummer consist of dancing around a pole, see picture
(which is a symbol for a huge penis) eating and getting ridicolous drunk. 

Anyways, im not going to trade any. But im betting on Muguruza, Hampton, Halep, Seppi, Dodig. All outrights.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Doing house chores

Thursday and we have another delayed start in Neatherlands which was perfect. So I had time to do some various house work to prepare for tomorrows festivities.

Pironkova

Quarter-finals today and they are about to begin in about 10 minutes time.

I'm quickly going over which players i will be favoring in-play.

Pironkova, Hampton, Kirilenko (backing @ higher odds), U Radwanska, Hernych, Verdasco, Donskoy.

All these i feel should be lower in odds. Especially the girl over here ->

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wednesday

So there is a small delay before matches in Neatherlands starts which gives me time to write alittle about todays matches. I haven't got much time on my hands the upcoming weeks for writing blogposts. The last couple of days I have worked on the house, building a terass.

Klizan

So its basically building then trading all days. And on friday its midsummer here in sweden which is a traditional holiday. Where people meet, eat & get drunk basically. So we are having some friends over for that.

So for today I find Klizan small value against Fognini. I'm not taking a position initially but ill look to get some value in-play. High possibility there will be alot of pressure on both serves.

Feliciano Lopez have been playing super tennis on the grass and Monaco haven't played a competetive match yet this year on the surface. Monaco is know as a claycourter but he has a good record on grass and this could really be a much closer competition than odds say (Lopez 1.39). Its probably pretty clear by know i'm going to lay Lopez in-play.

Seppi v Harrison im expecting to be a really swingy match. Im probably going to trade both ways here. If I had to put in a bet pre-match i'd put it on Harrison which I find is more value @ 2.48.

Bartoli

Bartoli undervalued today against Li. Bartoli is really good on grass and very undervalued against Li today. Laying Li inplay.

Looking to back Stosur, Kerber, Kirilenko, Watson, Vinci

Matches going to start any minute now so I'm going to round up this post. I do post some trades I do if I have time on twitter. Mayby it can be of any help for you guys.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

EDIT: Kuznetsov very good value today.

Hertogenbosch & Eastbourne: Joint-events

Eastbourne

Week 25 we have 2 joint event action in Hertogenbosch & Eastbourne. Both of the tournaments have more than average breaks of serve than the tour avg. for grass. Due to the fact that quality players often doesn't choose to play these events before a Grand Slam.

I'm abit suprised alot of the top WTA players is playing in Eastbourne though.

Hertogenbosch

Today Arvidsson plays against Morita. And the swedish #1 should have a good chance against Morita. Even though her form is very very poor.

Lino could make life difficult on Cibulkova aswell.

Lorenzi i feel is abit under-valued today against De Bakker. De Bakker should be a much better grass courter than he really is. Or atleast thats what past results say.

There is alot of matches today that is really hard to predict due to players almost never have played a grass match on tour level. Alot of random event may happen today.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy