Q's from a reader

So I got some questions from Jonas from sweden... I used google translate to translate it for me due cause i find it most time effective. I'll copy the swedish version first then the translated part.

Hejsan!
Jonas heter jag och har hittat din blogg, intressant och bra.
Dessutom verkar du duktig på trading.
Har själv vidrört ämnet periodvis, med blandade resultat. Det som gick bäst förr var iaf live-tennis. Har precis investerat i en laptop och så sakteliga börjat igen.
Undrar lite ang din trading, inom tennis.
Tradar du direkt på betfairs hemsida el använder du någon mjukvara?
Körde med bettraders själv förut men "harvar" på hemsidan nu. Finns visst något på hemsidan som heter Betfair Rapid - någon erfarenhet utav den?
Vilka matnyttiga sidor använder du?
Kör du med scoreboard eller streamar du matcher?
Vore kul om du svarade, finns inte många att fråga sådana saker om
Mvh Jonas

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Hello!
Jonas is my name and found your blog, interesting and good.
Furthermore, you seem good at trading.

Have yourself touched the topic periodically, with mixed results. It went better sooner was anyway live tennis. Having just invested in a laptop and slowly started again.

Wondering little about how you trade tennis.
Do you trade directly on Betfair website or do you use any software?
I used bettraders before but I use the website nowwadays. There is something on the website called Betfair Rapid - any experience out of it?

Which tennis webpages do you use?
Are you running the scoreboard or stream you matches?

Regards Jonas

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Hello Jonas!

First of all thanks for the kind words.

What you use for hardware is probably very personal (eg. laptop, desktop computer). I find having alot of working space is nice. But when I started out I just had a one screen so I didn't have anything more than you. Now I have two different setups. One @ my girlfriends place with two 28" 2560*1400 screens and one @ my house which looks like this. ->

I have never used the website for trading basically. I do know alot of very succesful people do use the website only. This is from what I have read on various blogs etc. 

I use Geektoys and I find it good enough for me. I have tried Bet Angel aswell but being so used and comfortable with geektoys I have sticked to it. I find it quite cheap aswell. Bet Angel have a cool feature that you can connect the markets to excel and basically do anything excel can do handling data. As you might have guessed by now I have never tried Betfair Rapid. Never heard anything about it either, sorry.

Tennis infromaition websites I use is the ones I have linked on the right handside here on the blog.

For scoreboards and streams I only use bet365. 

Good luck with you trading Jonas!

/Sammy

Fed Cup

This weekend Fed Cup is in town. Well not really  my town but its somewhat close to where i live in Borås. So I might go and watch a couple of matches. Entry fee is only about 5€ which seems very very cheap. I remember watching sweden - UK last year(?) or mayby that was 2 years ago. Ticket price was around 20-25€ from what i remembered. Well, if Radwanska wouldn't be playing I probably wouldnt go. I've seen Arvidsson and Larsson play plenty of times.

Borås Hallen - Venue for Fed Cup

Slow week this one with all the indoor tournaments. The one in france is absolutely the worst for me. Courtsiders are so far ahead and its dangerous staying in the markets. Cause you have no chance of removing your positions. I find the matches in general very boring due to the serve being such a big factor making matches very stale and dull. I've had a pretty decent week though so I shouldn't really complain but it's super boring this week to put in the hours. Mayby the weather and me having a cold that I wont get rid of adds to it.

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Tour moves on...

Pretty dramatical finish we had to the mens final. Nadal taking a trainer. Wawrinka choking in third set. Market was pretty spooked during 2nd and 3d set.

Pretty much everytime a big event is over I feel a big relief that it's over. Usually this has to do with the wierd working hours. So I'm pretty happy that the tour is taking a turn now and moving towards america with some stops here in europe before.

I don't know about you guys but my latency to the AUS wallet/markets is usually around 300-400 milliseconds which is kind of horrible. I usually dont get caught by snipers but happened a few times during these couple of weeks they where in the pacific area. So that is also nice to be working with a normal latency with a ping of 50ish...

This week we have alot of WTA action from Paris & Pattaya. The ATP tour is on hold for some Davis Cup to get underway this weekend. So there will be plenty of matches to grind this week aswell!


Got a nice e-mail from Betfair the other day. Basically said: Congratulations, now we are gonna grab an extra 1.5% from your pockets. For us that does not live in UK, Australia, Italy, Gibraltar. They have increased the commission to 6.5% from 5%. Cheers Betfair!

I understand them. They are in a situation that its possible for them to milk their costumers cause there isn't any competition. I would probably do the same if I where in their shoes. But I must say that I really wish/hope their greedy business model someday goes down in flames... =)

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Q: from a reader...

Got a question from Ste:

"Hi Sammy, I have been reading your blog on tennis trading. I am a student and have recently started to look towards trading, mainly horseracing as I have a greater knowledge about that. Yet I see more and more trading on tennis, would you be able to give me a few beginner pointers? If you can that would be great, if not then its not problem. Thanks!"

Hey Ste!

So this is a super broad question cause there is many aspects that you have to learn. But key in all sports trading is learning to read the markets.

You have to know from with in 1-2% margin where a odds will be if X or Y happens. If not its very hard to make any assumptions on what your liability or profit will be for the specific trade / strategy you are looking at.

How to do this is pretty straightforward. You just watch alot of matches and see how the market moves each ball / game / set. This might seem abit overwhelming at first cause odds seem to move a bit random. But eventually after alot of practice you can start to see patterns on what is normal and not and after that spot value (when market is out of line)

It took me about 3 months of pretty much watching every tennis match during that time in 2012. I dont know if that is fast or slow. You could probably learn it much quicker but. The first month I pretty much didnt trade i just focused on following the markets movement in relation to what happened in the match.

What else...

Bankroll management, there is loads of information out there on this topic. If you have a small bankroll that you can easily replace. Then you can risk a much higher proportion of your bankroll. If its something that you need to be able to work and make a living. Then you have to take really good care of it. Otherwise you wont make any more money if you blow it all. Its like being a carpenter and not taking care of your tools. You will be out of a job -> no food on the table.

Note worthy is, depending on your margins you have on each trade. If you have small margins = higher variance which then you should use a smaller porportion of your bankroll. The bigger the margin the bigger amount you can risk.

Ok thats all I had time for today. I hope you can take something with you from all of this anyways! I think learning how the markets behave for the different sports is for me the most important thing.

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Halfway thru Aussie Open

Yes we're almost a week into the first grand slam and I had a really good start to the week. But been struggling last couple of days to find any decent value. I'm really struggling with the high liqudity markets. Hard to get any really good value odds due to market maker having no spread at all basically and they pretty much always are infront of the queue with their speed (courtside info). Which is super annoying. Would be way more easy to make money if we where trading on the same terms. But it is what it is....

So I often "zoneout" in these circumstances. Which is not good obviously. But I'm working on it. I think basically I dont trust my strategies or theories in high liquid markets. Which makes me doubt myself alot and therefor not trade aswell.

The sultan @ centercourttrading have recommended a book "trading from your gut" which i picked up the other day. I must say it was a good read. And I think you can pickup alot from it. For you that have read it I find myself being a "left brain" person that are struggling with trusting my instincts and intuition. So I found it quite intresting really.


Much better start to this season. I remember being stuck about 2-3k at this point last season...


Stephane Robert the french lucky looser have made it to the 4th round and you can read a pretty amusing interview here. http://www.ausopen.com/en_AU/news/interviews/2014-01-18/201401181390025203272.html

Now its time to get back to the markets. The last matches for the day starts in a few mintues.

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Aussie Open 2014

Hey!

So if your remotely interested in tennis you probably know that on monday this seasons first grand slam will be underway. So there will be plenty of matches to trade which is always nice.

Last week was pretty decent and unlike last year I had a more cautious approach to the season start than last year where I was very eager to make bank and got myself into a huge hole in the first few weeks. Last year I posted a $ 2k profit for january which is not great. (its not bad, but hear me out)

For me personally I think winning on average less than $5k a month is not an option. Then you are probably better off having a normal job and trading part-time. Due to the various factors like social security and pension. I mean being a professional sports trader or any type of gambler is cool and all but when you are at my age (30-ish) you have to take the future a lot more into consideration. Like pension and security like I mentioned before. If you are in your 20's i think that is not as big of a problem and you should probably have much bigger risk calculated just because time is not a factor in that case.

I don't know about you guys, what is your thoughts about this topic?

AO 2014 is around the corner, are your ready?

Tonight I'm taking a day off and recharging my batteries for the 10 days straight work that is ahead of me. My plan is to go to bed @ 9.00 pm and wake up @ 3-4 am and taking a nap in the afternoon. Pacific time is really the worst of them all.

Tomorrow I'll try to make some preparations and have a look at the draw and try to find some value in the outrights markets. If I find something cool I'll let you know tomorrow. Ok, until then have a good evening and stay sharp!

/Sammy

Happy New Year

Yes, today the calenders says there will be a new year tomorrow. The new tennis year has already started though and I've been trading some with various results (as always) but its a positive one that I should be semi happy with due to liquidity and turnover not being great.

For example the Marius Copil vs Sugita right now. There is huge amounts available but these belong to the market maker which use a huge spread currently. the turnover is pretty terrible aswell which makes it hard to find value odds.

Happy New Year & Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Question from a reader

"Hi Sammy
I have one question to you - how to calculate where odds "should" move after first set.
Example, we have 2 players, both have 2,00 odds.
First player win set, odds "should" move to 1.33. How to calculate it?
Thanks, Adam."

Hi Adam!

First of all remember that the calculation only refers to 3 set matches.

So starting price is 2.00 for both players. Which equals 50% for both winning the match. And therefore a 50% chance of winning each set.

Season 2014 is just around the corner

Lets assume that Player A wins first set. Finally we have come to the million dollar question, how do we calculate his theoretical odds?

Lets calculate Player B's chances of winning the match. He needs to win 2 sets in order to win the match from a 0-1 set deficit. Which gives us 50%*50% = 25% (0.5*0.5=0.25)

Now we can easily get Player A's winning chances 100%-25% = 75% (1-0.25=0.75)

75% chance of winning the match equals 1.33 in odds (1/0.75=1.33)

Merry Christmas & Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

2013

Hey Guys!

(I was just writing from the top of my head so it might seem like a lot of rambling)

As we all know tennis season ended a while ago and I have been doing basically nothing for soon one month. It was at first very awkward in a sense. Cause i didn't know what to do the first week, hence the fact that there was no matches going on and therefore nothing to trade.

Now I have been much better to relax in the fact that i do have holidays and can rest for the long season that is ahead of us.

So maybe its time to reflect on what happened in 2013. When i first started trading in february 2012, I kind of didn't know what to expect. Now almost 2 years later its kind of weird how fast time has gone and I was able to successfully learn how to earn a living trading tennis markets. 2013 was the best year financially for me ever in my career as a professional gambler or in any career that I have been in.

When i think back I can't really remember what happened during the year. Its like a big blur at least the first part of 2013. But April and May really got the wheels turning for me (for real) and they kept going for the rest of the year.

So what do I think about the markets this year. Well I think there is still loads of flaws in the market. Tennis is a really hard market to set perfect odds on due to the fact that an odds can be good in a trading perspective but in another time aspect be very bad in value for punting. And of course vice versa. There has been much more activity from the market makers in the second part of 2013 from my experience. Making the margins smaller for us traders due to the high liquidity and court side information.

On a personal development I gotten a bit stronger mentally to be able to trade with larger amounts without the brain totally jamming up. This has always been a big thing for me that I have struggled with to be able to handle risk. Its still an issue in a sense cause its holding me back from achieving greater results. But it's a double edged sword. Its hard to say maybe I wouldn't be in this position if i wasn't this risk conscious. I think its different for some people But in some cases I get very timid and therefor missing out on opportunities.

In the craftsmanship of trading tennis in a technical sense I think I'm kind of good maneuvering the market and "feeling it" and using it to my advantage.

My thoughts on 2014? I hope it will be great of course but who knows. Recent results says that it will probably go even better next year (would be kind of insane) but when I think about it I never feel to confident a lot of things can happen Its when you get comfortable you are the most vulnerable.

Enough rambling...

Merry christmas & Stay Sharp!

If you got questions. Leave it in comments section or send an e-mail.

/Sammy

Question from a reader

"Hi Sammy! I'm from hungary and can't speak english very well, but I hope you will understand me. :) I am trading betfair for 5 years. Greyhound and horse racing: scalping.

I began trade tennis for 2 months. I think, I know, where there are my entry points.
double break, if the price nearly set price.
My stop loss: set price
But I can't decided, where is my green?
Break back liability off, duble break back hedge?
Or be happy that I got such a good price and let the end of the game?
Can you give me some instructions?

Best Regards, Tamas Keller"
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Hi Tamas! Your english good...I hope you will understand me now though =)

The easy answer to your question is the boring but still so true: It depends...

Every match and market is different so there is not a guide how to trade a double break or trade any given scenario in a tennis match. It always depends on the market and how you think it will react.

Ok, so im going to make an example here before it gets really boring. Tomorrow we have a match between Feliciano Lopez - Julien Benneteau. Odds are att 1.95 - 2.04 just now when I write this. But to simplify we say an even match, 2.00 - 2.00 for both players.

So this gives us that the market estimates each player chances to with the match to 50% and therefor 50% to win a set. So theoretical setprice for each player is 1.33 if they win first set. But if you have traded tennis for sometime you would probably have noticed by now that a match with 2.00 starting price seldom end up @1.33 after first set. Its usually more like 1.27ish  or even lower depending how the first set ende (double break, tiebreaker etc). More than often lower than higher than the theoretical price. Probably due to momentum and market pressure and so on.

Lets say Feliciano Lopez takes a *4-1 lead with a double break. and market is really favoring Lopez. and 1.30 is trading. Now you might think, Hey! That is lower than the theoretical price, and we should lay Lopez! Very good observation! Yes its true and in a vacuum if you thought the market had a correct starting price for the match it's a easy lay of Lopez......... Unfortunately it's not this easy. We always have to consider the market and what we think will happen if X or Y or Z happens.

This could turn into a very long post but i'll continue the example and hopefully you will get my point. We lay lopez 1.30 and our intentions is to trade out at set price or if benneteau levels the set.

So how will we know if this is a good trade or not? Ok so current price is 1.30 and if match gets back to even odds will be 2.00. So we have to estimate what the set price will be if Lopez wins first set.

Set price: 1.18 | Current price: 1.30 | Match leveled: 2.00 ->  1.28 = 77%

Set price: 1.22 | Current price: 1.30 | Match leveled: 2.00 ->  1.19 = 84%

Set price: 1.27 | Current price: 1.30 | Match leveled: 2.00 ->  1.07 = 94%

As we can see its pretty big difference between these three examples. And its up to you and estimate both the likelyhood for Lopez to win the set compared to what the target price will be for set and when the match is leveled.

So to wrap this up...

I hope my little explenation made some sense and this is why I started off with the boring "it depends". But it really does as I have pointed out. Laying double break is usually a good trade but not always and when to take "green" also depends on what kind of odds you get in a certain situation against the probability on a given scenario.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy