2013

Hey Guys!

(I was just writing from the top of my head so it might seem like a lot of rambling)

As we all know tennis season ended a while ago and I have been doing basically nothing for soon one month. It was at first very awkward in a sense. Cause i didn't know what to do the first week, hence the fact that there was no matches going on and therefore nothing to trade.

Now I have been much better to relax in the fact that i do have holidays and can rest for the long season that is ahead of us.

So maybe its time to reflect on what happened in 2013. When i first started trading in february 2012, I kind of didn't know what to expect. Now almost 2 years later its kind of weird how fast time has gone and I was able to successfully learn how to earn a living trading tennis markets. 2013 was the best year financially for me ever in my career as a professional gambler or in any career that I have been in.

When i think back I can't really remember what happened during the year. Its like a big blur at least the first part of 2013. But April and May really got the wheels turning for me (for real) and they kept going for the rest of the year.

So what do I think about the markets this year. Well I think there is still loads of flaws in the market. Tennis is a really hard market to set perfect odds on due to the fact that an odds can be good in a trading perspective but in another time aspect be very bad in value for punting. And of course vice versa. There has been much more activity from the market makers in the second part of 2013 from my experience. Making the margins smaller for us traders due to the high liquidity and court side information.

On a personal development I gotten a bit stronger mentally to be able to trade with larger amounts without the brain totally jamming up. This has always been a big thing for me that I have struggled with to be able to handle risk. Its still an issue in a sense cause its holding me back from achieving greater results. But it's a double edged sword. Its hard to say maybe I wouldn't be in this position if i wasn't this risk conscious. I think its different for some people But in some cases I get very timid and therefor missing out on opportunities.

In the craftsmanship of trading tennis in a technical sense I think I'm kind of good maneuvering the market and "feeling it" and using it to my advantage.

My thoughts on 2014? I hope it will be great of course but who knows. Recent results says that it will probably go even better next year (would be kind of insane) but when I think about it I never feel to confident a lot of things can happen Its when you get comfortable you are the most vulnerable.

Enough rambling...

Merry christmas & Stay Sharp!

If you got questions. Leave it in comments section or send an e-mail.

/Sammy

Question from a reader

"Hi Sammy! I'm from hungary and can't speak english very well, but I hope you will understand me. :) I am trading betfair for 5 years. Greyhound and horse racing: scalping.

I began trade tennis for 2 months. I think, I know, where there are my entry points.
double break, if the price nearly set price.
My stop loss: set price
But I can't decided, where is my green?
Break back liability off, duble break back hedge?
Or be happy that I got such a good price and let the end of the game?
Can you give me some instructions?

Best Regards, Tamas Keller"
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Hi Tamas! Your english good...I hope you will understand me now though =)

The easy answer to your question is the boring but still so true: It depends...

Every match and market is different so there is not a guide how to trade a double break or trade any given scenario in a tennis match. It always depends on the market and how you think it will react.

Ok, so im going to make an example here before it gets really boring. Tomorrow we have a match between Feliciano Lopez - Julien Benneteau. Odds are att 1.95 - 2.04 just now when I write this. But to simplify we say an even match, 2.00 - 2.00 for both players.

So this gives us that the market estimates each player chances to with the match to 50% and therefor 50% to win a set. So theoretical setprice for each player is 1.33 if they win first set. But if you have traded tennis for sometime you would probably have noticed by now that a match with 2.00 starting price seldom end up @1.33 after first set. Its usually more like 1.27ish  or even lower depending how the first set ende (double break, tiebreaker etc). More than often lower than higher than the theoretical price. Probably due to momentum and market pressure and so on.

Lets say Feliciano Lopez takes a *4-1 lead with a double break. and market is really favoring Lopez. and 1.30 is trading. Now you might think, Hey! That is lower than the theoretical price, and we should lay Lopez! Very good observation! Yes its true and in a vacuum if you thought the market had a correct starting price for the match it's a easy lay of Lopez......... Unfortunately it's not this easy. We always have to consider the market and what we think will happen if X or Y or Z happens.

This could turn into a very long post but i'll continue the example and hopefully you will get my point. We lay lopez 1.30 and our intentions is to trade out at set price or if benneteau levels the set.

So how will we know if this is a good trade or not? Ok so current price is 1.30 and if match gets back to even odds will be 2.00. So we have to estimate what the set price will be if Lopez wins first set.

Set price: 1.18 | Current price: 1.30 | Match leveled: 2.00 ->  1.28 = 77%

Set price: 1.22 | Current price: 1.30 | Match leveled: 2.00 ->  1.19 = 84%

Set price: 1.27 | Current price: 1.30 | Match leveled: 2.00 ->  1.07 = 94%

As we can see its pretty big difference between these three examples. And its up to you and estimate both the likelyhood for Lopez to win the set compared to what the target price will be for set and when the match is leveled.

So to wrap this up...

I hope my little explenation made some sense and this is why I started off with the boring "it depends". But it really does as I have pointed out. Laying double break is usually a good trade but not always and when to take "green" also depends on what kind of odds you get in a certain situation against the probability on a given scenario.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Missed me?

Hey Guys! Missed me? Probably not but i'm back. I decided to put my writing career on halt for awhile. It was a fun experience but trading has to be first priority and it was to time consuming to be able to do both. I usually trade all of the tennis matches during a day. This doesn't mean I put in any money in them but I do give myself opportunities to find good value. Somedays are super slow and somedays are very lucrative.

I'm pretty happy though season is coming to an end. Its been a long season and alot of matches and markets. In November I'm planning a trip to Dubai and then im probably gonna go a couple of weeks to South America.

The Asia swing is on its way and I actually like waking up this early. Its nice to brew some coffe and grind away and have the afternoon and evening off.

Here is one play for today. Lay Errani, and lay again and again if Errani goes off to a good start.

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

forzafabio.se

Hey!

It was sometime ago i wrote here. Ive been really busy asusual. I got some bad news if you liked reading this blog and mayby getting some tips.

I got this opportunity to write for one of the biggest tennis websites in sweden. Problably the biggest one. Its called forzafabio.se and its ofcourse written in swedish. I will be covering the WTA-tour. So far i have only been writing for a couple of days but its really fun and challenging.

So I just wanted to let you know that for now on i'll put this blog on hold, definately. I still use twitter and I do comment the markets from time to time. Stop by and say hello or have a question. If I got time ill try to answer it for you.

Stay sharp!

/Sammy

Late Night Tennis

So it was a while since i wrote anything about tennis. Im sitting here watching Isner - Anderson now in Atlanta. Apperently there have only been 10 break between these gents in the 208 games they played before. As I write this . You can add another 19 games to that...  soon 20...

Båstad Center Court

Anyways. So what have I been upto lately? I have been trading asusual. But my girlfriend has her holidays now so I have spent alot of time with her also. So my workload haven't been up to standards so to say. Or atleast what it normally is. We went to see Serena incinerate Johanna Larsson in the Womens Final in Båstad. I'd never go if I hadn't gotten the tickets for free. Sure it was a nice day. But womens tennis is kind of dull to be honest.

So we will have A.Radwanska against Cibulkova playing in Stanford. I cant really see any value in these odds. If I was going to do anything initially id start with a lay of Radwanska and see how it goes. Im just going to wait and see how it all evolves.

Isner - Anderson goes into a 3d set. Could get intresting....

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Summer!

I'm still here... But I have to put blogging on hold for a week or two. There is so much going on that I almost dont have time for anything except trading and doing various life things

But i'll be back before you know it with some thoughts about the the markets and upcoming matches

I hope you are doing good in the markets!

Stay Sharp!

/Sammy

Week 28 - Back to clay

Wimbledon is over and we will have tennis in mainly europe. The men have a grass tournament in Newport USA also this week.

ATP Båstad

As I'm living in Sweden i'll probably go to ATP Båstad this week. I have tickets for wednesday but when I checked the weather yesterday i'm not 100% sure i'll be going. It's abit of a drive for me so if there is any chances of rain i'm going to be home and work instead.

ATP Newport

Week after a Grand Slam, there is various motivational issues with players. Its hard to guess but in general alot of wierd upsets usually happens. Which usually generates swingy matches with lower quality players that hasn't rock solid game

Today monday is kind of a slow start of the week with alot of qualifying matches still to be played. Tomorrow the action really picks up.

But today I havn't given the qualifying matches any focus only the main draw matches.

• In Newport I find Mannarino value against Blake (reverse the odds), Isners odds is also very generous should be around 1.25-1.33 to me. 
• In Germany (Stuttgart), Montanes is abit undervalued against Klizan not alot but around 5%.
• Torro-flor should be abit lower but 1.22 is not back-able so will wait and try to get a higher price.
• Arruabarrena has good value against Larsson.
• I might also lay Halep for trading purposes today.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon Mens Semi's

So it's time for the boys to compete for the 2 spots in the final.

First up is Djokovic-Del Potro today @ 14.00 CET. Djokovic is a healthy favorite @ 1.15 and I think market has done a good job pricing this match.

In the contest between Janowicz-Murray I find Murrays price @ 1.22 abit low. (80%). 1.35 looks more correct (~73%) to me.

I'm gonna wait for in-play and to find some value. Lets move on to the outrights market Djokovic is @ 1.75 , Murray @ 3 , Del Potro @ 17 , Janowicz @ 24

Just for fun I'm going to put odds on possible future finals. Having the outrights market in mind I think the market will have these odds:

Djokovic (1.60) - Murray (2.5).... Reasonable odds but I think ~1.80-1.90 for Djokovic is more reasonable.

Djokovic (1.10) - Janowicz (11) .... More correct odds should be around 1.22.

Murray (1.22) - Del Potro (5.2) ..... Market might put Murray lower but I think 1.30 would be more correct in this final.

And finally chocker final

Janowicz (2.20) - Del Potro (1.8) ... The public would favor Del Potro and consider ranking and so on but for me i'd reverse the odds and I'd have Janowicz as the favorite.

Alot of stuff could happen that would ofcourse change the possibilities of various outcomes. eg. injuries etc.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon Womens Semi's

First of all I want to say some words about the outrights market. Where the girl in super form Lisicki is @ 2.36 as I write this. It's very off for me. 1.74 against radwanska means she has to be atleast 1.40 favorite in the next match, for it being a breakeven proposition. 1.74*1.38 = 2.40


When i run simulations in possible future matchups between Lisicki - Bartoli & Lisicki - Flipkens. I have Lisicki as a ~1.80 favorite (1.70-1.90) against both of them.

This gives us 1.74*1.80 = 3.13

But then you might think "But Sammy haven't you forgot something? How about todays matchup against A.Radwanska?" And you are totally right. Today Lisicki's odds @ 1.75 is fine. I'd lean abit more towards even money than going the other way.

But we will start the afternoon with Bartoli against Flipkens. Market has Bartoli as a ~58% favorite at the moment but for me this is wrong. I think about ~67% (1.50) is more correct.

Just watching the outrights market who ever wins the semi between Bartoli & Flipkens will be under-valued in the final.

Who you got?

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon Mens Quarters

Mens quarters today @ 14.00 CET. And we have exiting matches to look forward to.

Kubot

First off im laying both super favorites, Murray & Djokovic for trading value. I think they are abit to low both of them but especially Murray. They will probably go thru to the semis both of them. But if they lost a set or two wouldn't surprise me at all.

I don't know why Del Potro is drifting... is it beacuse of his knee injury? Even money or Del Potro small favorite is more correct in my world. Should be a very entertaining match to trade.

In the all polish affair between Kubot and Janowicz. I think Janowicz's odds is low. I think 1.50-1.60 would be more viable odds.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy