Wimbledon day 5 - Raining

It doesn't look like we will have any play today other than @ the center court. It might be a couple of ours in the afternoon.


I might take this opportunity to take the day off actually to get stuff done around the house and various other things.

Stay Dry! /Sammy

Wimbledon day 4

I usually go through matches the day before. Plenty of matches where I think market have wrong prices.

For the laidies. I think Krumm, Halep, Keys, Vesnina, Zakopalova, Peng, Johansson, Kanepi has value.

Mens. Llodra, Przysiezny, Blake, Zemlja, Kudla, Raonic.

I don't think they will all win ofcourse and i really don't care who does as I have stated many times before. There is a big different between punting and trading.

They are warming up now on the courts.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon day 3

Today the market and I isn't at the same page at all. To me there is lot of wierd prices.

Undervalued womens: Lucic-Baroni, Birnerova, Cetkovska, Petkovic, Muguruza, Bartoli, Shvedova, Giorgi, Dolonc

Undervalued mens: Kuznetsov, Verdasco, Ram, De Schepper

I'm not gonna take a position pre-match in any of these matches. But i will be looking to trade in favor of these. I wouldn't be suprised at all if we see a couple of "upsets" today.

Medical Timeout (MTO)

For the super favorites Azarenka and Sharapova it shouldn't be any problem to get into the next round. But you should consider Azarenka's nasty fall last match have created somewhat of an buzz if she is fit or not. So taking this in consideration. Market could go absolute bananas if she takes an medical again or makes another nasty fall. Which you always should consider when trading. Try to assess possibilities for trainer and work that in your favor when trading. I try to take this in consideration before matches.

Laying a player taking a MTO is usually very profitable if you can get on early. There after 8-9 of 10 (I have not data to back this up, this is my general assessment) there is huge value on backing the player that is "hurt". Try to think in terms of if she or he where injured so badly wouldn't they already have forfeited the match. So many times market have overreacted several 100% percent in just speculations in a fortfeit.

It's not easy to trade a market when someone have taken a big fall or are obviously injured. But there is loads of money to be made on fear and greed generated in these circumastances.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wimbledon!

After a good weekend of festivities it's time to focus on tennis again.

Tomorrow the third Grand Slam of the year starts and it's Wimbledon. Round 1 in all slams consists of 64 matches for both the men & women.

2012 winners: Roger Federer, Serena Williams

Avg. service hold:

Women: 69.4% (Break: 30.6%)

Men: 83.0% (Break: 17%)

Im not gonna speculate who wins wimbeldon but if I had to make one i'd say that S.Williams will most likely defend last years win. S.Williams worst opponent is probably herself. I haven't checked her odds in the winners market.

I haven't yet started to go through the matches for tomorrow. But I will focus on the WTA mainly cause trading ATP is quite time consuming due to 5 setters. And id rather trade more markets than few. But I'll have to see where the liqudity will be at aswell so there will be some focus on some ATP matches aswell.

Ok so have a good nights sleep it's gonna be a long week!

/Sammy

Midsummer!

Happy midsummer!

Today i wont be trading at all. We are expecting people to arrive in a moment. Just a couple that we are gonna play a match of tennis against. The other couple arrives abit later due to the doctor worked night yesterday.

The typical swedish midsummer consist of dancing around a pole, see picture
(which is a symbol for a huge penis) eating and getting ridicolous drunk. 

Anyways, im not going to trade any. But im betting on Muguruza, Hampton, Halep, Seppi, Dodig. All outrights.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Doing house chores

Thursday and we have another delayed start in Neatherlands which was perfect. So I had time to do some various house work to prepare for tomorrows festivities.

Pironkova

Quarter-finals today and they are about to begin in about 10 minutes time.

I'm quickly going over which players i will be favoring in-play.

Pironkova, Hampton, Kirilenko (backing @ higher odds), U Radwanska, Hernych, Verdasco, Donskoy.

All these i feel should be lower in odds. Especially the girl over here ->

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Wednesday

So there is a small delay before matches in Neatherlands starts which gives me time to write alittle about todays matches. I haven't got much time on my hands the upcoming weeks for writing blogposts. The last couple of days I have worked on the house, building a terass.

Klizan

So its basically building then trading all days. And on friday its midsummer here in sweden which is a traditional holiday. Where people meet, eat & get drunk basically. So we are having some friends over for that.

So for today I find Klizan small value against Fognini. I'm not taking a position initially but ill look to get some value in-play. High possibility there will be alot of pressure on both serves.

Feliciano Lopez have been playing super tennis on the grass and Monaco haven't played a competetive match yet this year on the surface. Monaco is know as a claycourter but he has a good record on grass and this could really be a much closer competition than odds say (Lopez 1.39). Its probably pretty clear by know i'm going to lay Lopez in-play.

Seppi v Harrison im expecting to be a really swingy match. Im probably going to trade both ways here. If I had to put in a bet pre-match i'd put it on Harrison which I find is more value @ 2.48.

Bartoli

Bartoli undervalued today against Li. Bartoli is really good on grass and very undervalued against Li today. Laying Li inplay.

Looking to back Stosur, Kerber, Kirilenko, Watson, Vinci

Matches going to start any minute now so I'm going to round up this post. I do post some trades I do if I have time on twitter. Mayby it can be of any help for you guys.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

EDIT: Kuznetsov very good value today.

Hertogenbosch & Eastbourne: Joint-events

Eastbourne

Week 25 we have 2 joint event action in Hertogenbosch & Eastbourne. Both of the tournaments have more than average breaks of serve than the tour avg. for grass. Due to the fact that quality players often doesn't choose to play these events before a Grand Slam.

I'm abit suprised alot of the top WTA players is playing in Eastbourne though.

Hertogenbosch

Today Arvidsson plays against Morita. And the swedish #1 should have a good chance against Morita. Even though her form is very very poor.

Lino could make life difficult on Cibulkova aswell.

Lorenzi i feel is abit under-valued today against De Bakker. De Bakker should be a much better grass courter than he really is. Or atleast thats what past results say.

There is alot of matches today that is really hard to predict due to players almost never have played a grass match on tour level. Alot of random event may happen today.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Friday week 24 - Q-finals & semi's

Dennis Kudla

So today there is quite a few matches where I totally disagree with the market. I might be abit naïve but today i think there is loads of flaws in the markets.

Hewitt should be much closer in odds against Del Potro.

I dont think Kudla will win but could really make life difficult for Tsonga which is trading 1.10 now and for me that is very low. The young american is perfoming well on the grass.

Backing 1.05 on Murray is definately not a fist pump back. Im probably gonna lay this and reverse it on Murray if he trades higher.

Monfils should be much closer in odds to Haas in my world aswell.

Gael Monfils

Lisicki to low for me aswell playing against Alison Riske.

For the clay courts Petkovic should make it alot tougher on Jankovic than the odds say. Halep - Safarova should be a really close one aswell. But I think Halep will take it in the end.

Vekic is a really intresting player also that starts off the day against Cirstea in Birmingham. I hope she can make it intresting against the inform Sorana.

As im writing it seems "smart" money is piling up laying Cirstea 1.60.

Stay Sharp! /Sammy

Week 24 Thursday - Rain & Radar

Riske

It's raining absurdly much here today in west parts of sweden. As of late there has been alot of rain delays. It's kind of annoying when you have to stop trading and not really knowing when action will probably resume.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/london/ec2v-7/weather-radar/328328 is a cool site where you can see radar pictures of the current weather and how rain is moving. Tournaments just usually makes one hours pushes all the time even if they know it will rain for a couple of hours more.

Had a decent day on the markets yesterday. I have a couple of grand on Benneteau also which i left (no liability) against F.Lopez aswell but it doesnt look to good at the moment. He is trailing a break and a set. Also behind 15-40 in his service game at the moment.

Hewitt

For today we have.
Lays: Tsonga, Del Potro, Lisicki, Safarova, Halep

Under valued: Hewitt, Riske, Petkovic

Stay sharp! /Sammy

Week 24 - Tuesday

Due to day 1 in Nurmberger rained away we have plenty to choose from today. And we do start abit earlier than yesterday with matches from the same tournament.

Beygelzimer

To start off the day I'm going to lay Safarova in her service games today initially against Karatantcheva. I feel Pereira and Pegula are undervalued aswell. Duque Marino - Lino seems about right in price.

Its hard to say what matches to trade today especially after 12.00 CET. when the bigger part of the day starts. You will probably find that liquidity will drop on some matches to move to bigger matches and vice versa.

Ryan Harrison

I'm definately going to lay Del Potro today against grass courter specialist Malisse. I also find there is good value in Harrison against Nieminen.

Today both Larsson and Arvidsson plays in Nurmberger. They will have tough matches both of them. If one them goes to 2nd round we (swedes) should be happy. Especially when i think market has the wrong favorite in the Larsson-Bygelzimer match. Petkovic-Arvidsson I find pretty much spot on in the price.


Stay sharp! /Sammy

Week 24 - Grass season

I had some days off and went to Germany for a little trip with my girlfriend. We ended up in Berlin & Lübeck.We had great weather and a really good time. There is so much to see in Berlin its really hard to find time to do it all. Was surprised about Lübeck it was really nice, but 1 day is enough. We where abit in luck cause there was this wine festival going on i Lübeck. I was drinking sekt (german champange) all night from south german wine producers for basically nothing.

Gerry Webber Open - Halle

Aegon Classic/Championship - Birmingham

Clay season is basically over. There is a number of tournement left but left but officially it's kind of over. As i came home pretty late yesterday. I went to bed earlier than normal. I haven't really checked the matches for today which is not great. But stats is really hard to find for grass. Some players haven't recorded a single match on grass. Which makes it hard for me and betting companys to come up with decent lines.

Average hold for both men and women on grass is significantlly higher than on other surfaces. So we can expect in generall less breaks.

Nurnberger WTA Int'

 There is a clay tournament this week in Nurnberger which is a new tournament. Hard to say how that clay play so we will see what info comes about and what numbers that turns up.

I'm getting ready myself for todays action and im not finished so I cant really get you any predictions for today. If I find anything intresting I will post it later. Im going write an article about hardware and software this week. I have alot on my plate though but hopefully I will have time to do it abit later.

GL @ the markets /Sammy

Day 11 Roland Garros

Federers performance today was not even close to what I expected. Tsonga played super. Serving like a beast. He definately deserved to win. Errani and Radwanska played out pretty much as i expected. Alot of breaks. Myself and my account would have been much happier if Radwanska had taken the tiebreak in the 2nd set.

2nd half of the quarters will get underway tomorrow. I find these big matches really hard to find any real value to be honest. Market is doing a good job and I usually wait for in-play trading and see what happens.

Kirilenko

Jelena Jankovic (JJ)

But there is one match i will take position from start and it's the clash between Kirilenko - Azarenka. I find these 2 much closer on paper. I was abit disapointed in Schiavones performance in Azarenkas last match. She held serve once and it was her first service game of the match if i remember correctly. Schiavone did her job on the return though. But its hard to win matches if you dont hold serve. This matchup though should be different. Im expecting a decent amount of holds for both girls. 1.19 as the current odds is at is to low in my world and I'm laying azarenka pre-match. A couple of holds each and market usually corrects around 10 ticks. Depends some on how easy they hold etc but this could be a very very intresting match for trading.

Jankovic - Sharapova at first glance should be a fist pump Sharapova win. But Jankovic's performance have been getting better and better this year on clay, key for JJ is getting a high 1st serve % in her 2nd serve is very weak and sharapova is probably one of the best in the world at taking advantage of this. Im probably not going to take a position initially here.

Both favorites in the womens matches tomorrow have been looking very focused and sharp during this years RG. But there is a more than a decent chance atleast one of these 2 matches should get very dramatic and lucrative.

In the mens we will see Djokovic - Haas & Nadal - Wawrinka. To be honest i don't have a clue what will happen. Probably 2 solid wins for the huge favorites. I'll just wait and make my decisions in-play.

I got a question on twitter about hardware & software. Im going to write a post about it tomorrow hopefully, when I get some downtime.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Everybody seems to love a P/L screenie...

May 2013

Day 10 Roland Garros

It's time for quarterfinals in Paris, France. Today we have 2 womens matches and 2 mens on the card. There is alot of doubles going on aswell but I have some stuff to do around the house so i dont think i will get involved in this. But lets go through the singles matches today....

Like most matches i find S.Williams being value at these crazy prices. But backing from start is not for me. I'm going to back S.Williams if she trades higher.

A.Radwanska against Errani could get alot more intresting. The 1.64 (61%) odds on Radwanska is fine. Predicted holds for this match is very low. And trading breaks will most likely be a generous offer. I'm hoping for a 3 setter with alot of drama in the mix.

T.Robredo

Robredo - Ferrer: Will the fairytale continue? I doubt it. Having 3 tough 5 setters in the legs and the emotional drain after the last one. Robredo cried of happiness after winning against almagro. It was almost like had won the whole tournament. I think it would take a lot to reboot emotionally and physically to beat an inform Ferrer over another 5 sets. 1.07 is very low though nothing i'm going to back.

The main attraction today is definately the clash between Tsonga vs Federer. Market has Federer at a healthy 1.60 which I find high. After Federers poor performance against Simon the other day and Tsonga looking really solid in his previous matches during RG. I think market has overreacted abit though. For me i'd say 1.33-1.40 would have been a much more solid odds on Federer. It's definately gonna be a intresting match to watch and hopefully trade. GL @ the markets. /Sammy

Federer & Tsonga

Day 9 Roland Garros

Second part of Round 4 is coming today and markets have done a pretty good job at setting odds for today.

I think odds on Haas is very generous against his meeting with Youzhny. Alot of it has to do with fatigue speculations. We will see tomorrow. But if Haas doesn't give any clear signals on being fatigued. Then its alot of value on him.

Tommy Haas

The contest between Wawrinka - Gasquet. For me they have the wrong favorite here. And I will trade accordingly. I will not take any position pre-match though.

Laying either Nadal or Djokovic isn't terrible. Not that i think they will loose but for trading value.

I'm definately going to lay Azarenka tomorrow. I'm not suprised if it got really ugly for her tomorrow.

Francesca Schiavone

Mattek-Sands against Kirilenko could be a very swingy match. Both players are abit streaky. Especially Mattek-Sands. So i will lay who ever has the lead basically.

Pretty much same goes for Hampton against Jankovic. But Jankovic is a bit of value if I had to just put in a single bet pre-match.

And last i'll be looking to back Sharapova if she trades higher.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 8 Roland Garros

No clear value in any matches for me today...

Kevin Andersson

Todays mens matches:
Tsonga - Troicki
Anderson - Ferrer
Robredo - Almagro
Simon - Federer

Im going to lay Ferrer & Tsonga and possibly Almagro also. But Robredos has 2 tough 5 setters in the bag. There should be some drama in atleast one of these 3 matches. Hard to say which one though. Stats say Tsonga - Trocki should be much closer but my feeling says the total opposite. But what i have learned over the years is that leave emotions somewhere else.

If Federer starts bad against Simon today im going to definately back him at some points.

Womens:
S.Williams - Vinci
Kuznetsova - Kerber
A.Radwanska - Ivanovic
Suarez Navarro - Errani

Like Federer match im going to Back Williams if she trades higher.

The other womens matches could be very random, so im going to pick good prices to lay the one in the lead. I think SP's are decent though so no positions from start.

Gl @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 7 Roland Garros

Cornet

Took the bike to the westcoast to visit a friend for some barbeque and beers yesterday evening so I just arrived back home in time for todays tennis.

There are some intresting matches today aswell. Action already started on 2 of them.

Cornet - Azarenka... Azarenka probably wins this in the end but should be alot closer than 1.07. I'm basically laying Azarenka serve every single game cause there is good value in it and then hedging whatever the outcome is. Hoping Cornet holds serve is a breakeven proposition.

Ormaechea should make life abit difficult for the Mattek-Sands. And price is very low on Mattek.

Schiavones odds is abit to high. But im going to trade low-risk spots basically. Never know with these laidies. Usually doesnt make any sense. Its so random its almost predictable.

When running numbers on Paire Nishikori. Nishikori should be a healthy favorit. Evens is a steal. But for me id rather lay Paire at a lower price. So ive been waiting. After nishikori's early break in first set, made a big overreaction which seem very common in the mens markets. As i'm writing Paire broke back now and its 40-15 *2-3 in paires serve. Anyways Nishikori is value.

Nishikori

I find value on Wawrinka aswell, but im going to wait for a bigger price.


Other than that there isn't anything super clear. Value today. Gonna trade overreactions in-play.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy