Day 6 Roland Garros

Chardy

Some matches left from yesterday... So have a look at yesterdays post for some thoughts about them.

Today i feel markets is much more effecient in their odds for the 3d round matches today. But we have still lots of intresting matches from postponed from yesterday.

But upset for today is probably Chardy against Tsonga. I find 1.25 very very low. Chardy has the game to beat all these big favorites, and has proven it in the past.

I think there is some value in Anderson today aswell, not much but 5-6%.

Thats about it in the mens for todays Round 3 matches.

For the womens i think Cetkovska is under-valued against Vinci. Her comeback have been ok. I think her game is up to par beacuse recent results do indicate that. Should be much closer in odds.

Puig

Then we have the young gun Puig against CSN. Could easily be an upset here, atleast it could be very swingy which is great.

Matches is about to start. GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 5 Roland Garros

Bouchard

Some chances for rain delay today, I've heard 30-60% so its pretty likely. Latest news is that we will get a couple of hours of play in now

There should be alot of opportunities today for good trading today.

Again today Schmiedlova have great value against hampton today. Aswell is King against Stephens. Kvitova & Schiavone is giving us value aswell.

Beck

Li-MattekSands will probably be a much closer contest than the odds predict. Im going to lay, lay, lay. hedge green. Then lay green and see what happens. Thats the plan anyways. If Li destroys Mattek i'll just take it on the chin.

Backing Stosur if she starts bad against Mladenovic. Id like 1.70-1.80ish something. first. If Mladen takes first set. I'll have to start trading some otherwise potential losses will get out of hand.

Sock

Shvedova - Ormachea. Dan @ tennisratings have Shvedova at pre-matches which is alright. I dont think this will be a fist pump win. It could be much more drama. And why missout on a potential swingy match.

Laying the huge favs in the womens matches today. Both Sharapova and Azarenka. Bouchard and Beck probably wont upset but we could get some swings here with cheap lays.

There are alot of flaws in market today in the mens bracket but I dont have time to write any more. But if I have to write one. I'd say Jack Sock to make it really hard on Haas. Easy multiple lays.

 GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 4 Roland Garros

So i got some time over here beacuse its ony ATP matches going on at the moment. Alot of WTA matches was postponed to today due to the rain yesterday.

Schmiedlova beat Wickmayer in a 3 setter. Wickmayer dictating play alot but at the cost of alot of UE's which cost her the match basically.

Johanna Larsson (Jo-Lo)

Matches coming up today is the swede (yay!) Larsson which i think have a good chance of beating Cirstea. Probably ranking and name that has made its mark on the starting price. Should be much more close to evens in my world.

For the same reasons i find Puig's nice as she takes on Keys in the young gun battle for today.

Shelby Rogers

Im abit curious to see what Shelby Rogers can do to hurt Suarez-Navarro. If there is gonna be a big upset for today i think this is it. I've already layed CSN but its abit of an gamble.

There are some ridicolous prices on the Mens matches. Especially after first set. For example was Seppi trading 1.10 after winning first set (SP 1.40) Kavcic lost first set 6-0 though. But still its only 1-0 to Seppi in sets. Its best of 5 sets not 3 sets. Seems like market tend to forget that alot. I have Kavcic as undervalued in that match so it was pretty easy lay for me. Good that he could make it competetive aswell.

Seems like WTA matches is going to get underway soon.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 3 - Roland Garros

30 min to kick-off, intresting matches today aswell.

Mens:

Vesely

Im going to lay these guys today. Kohlschreiber, Wawrinka, Djokovic, Verdasco. For trading purposes.

Its gonna be intresting to watch Vesely, He is a youngster that has been a beast on the futures & challangers. His first ATP match and Grand Slam might be to much for him but I think he will put up a good fight. What does he have to loose? 

Hanescu to beat Tomic. But i will look for better odds in-play.

Womens: Hard to make good predictions today on alot of matches due to alot of players dont have enough data to make good assumptions. But there are a few.

Govortsova to beat Bartoli isn't bad. This match can be an really epic one. Govortsova tends to have big problems closing out matches. Seems like she looses focus when she has a healthy lead.

Dont be suprised in a Schmiedlova upset, beating Wickmayer.

Schmiedlova

I like Jankovic aswell but a bit higher odds would be much nicer.  Same goes for Duque Marino & Peng.

Davis to beat Mladenovic. She had problems against big serving Hradecka last week. Mladenovic has a big one aswell which is the only negative.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Day 2 Roland Garros

I was supposed to write something about todays matches. But i woke up really late due to the fact I went to bed 03.30 in the night.

I was abit dissapointed at my performance today at the markets. You might think I did have a bad day. On the contrary really, money wise it was ok. But I usually have a plan for every single match I trade. Not in super detail but if X happens i'll do Y basically. And as the match progresses X & Y changes ofcourse. But when there is so many matches going on at the same time as it where today and there is good liqudity and market maker at every single one of them. There is to much to choose from. So i end up doing nothing instead of executing. I don't know if this makes any sense but i was really tilted for a while cause i couldn't focus.

So tomorrow i'll just make a decision to just have specific chosen matches open. (I usually have all markets open that is running just for monitor purpose. Hence the information overload.)

Enough about that rambling.... Today Haase (or #hahahahaase in the twitter world) finally ended his record tiebreak loosing streak. "Hopefully I'm not going to lose another 17 in a row"  

I have to look through tomorrows matches now. If it doesn't get to late I'll write down my top picks for tomorrow.

/Sammy

Latency

I cant really remember how it was last year at Roland Garros but result updates from today was not great. Basically you have to watch the market maker to know the score. Cause scoreboards are 10 seconds behind. Trading short term during this slam will be very very difficult. I didn't trade the whole session today i got in pretty late. But managed to get a healthy green on Williams vs U.Radwanska.

I did watch alot of other markets and yes it's very hard to get decent odds due to the latency but im going to work more on long term trades for this slam.

I'm pretty tired right now. I have gone through all of the round 1 matches now and there are some intresting matches tomorrow. From the top of my head i think Sijsling is super value. I like Navarros chances tomorrow against an inform Halep.

I will probably make some comments before matches starts tomorrow. Now its time for bed.

ZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzz

/Sammy

Happy mothersday!

Unlike the rest of the world. Here in sweden it's mothersday today. So i'm going to 2 different dinners. I'd rather stay home and trade Roland-Garros. But we will see if i might manage to get back in time for the late matches today.

GL @ the markets.

EDIT: Apparently bet365 doesnt broadcast during RG. Neither for UK or Swedish residents. If you come from a different country and can get the bet365 feed. Let me know, thanks.

Friday: Something wierd happened

This is a screenshot from Stephens-Peng yesterday. After Peng won the matchpoint. There was these huge amounts of free money still laying around until Betfair closed the market which lasted for atleast 30 seconds. I wasn't really sure what was going on. I thought about backing my whole exposure limit 20k but with no stream and not knowing what was really going on i couldnt stomach it. For me after first set market was really wierd. But I had some losses to recoupe which was nice.

I wasnt gonna do any predictions today but here is some..

Bouchard to beat Cornet, Kanepi to beat Lepchenko, Oprandi to beat Peng, Sijsling to beat Jarkko. Thats about it.. other than that odds looks pretty decent. Ohh almost forgot Vasselin to beat Montanes...

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Wednesday: The action continues

Another day, another dollar.... to me is the plan.

Brussels had another day of rain. Must be terrible to be a tournament director and there is nothing you can do about it. Hopefully we will get some action there today. Its kind of perfect that it has rained. I was abit worried about missing value in some matches due to the fact that it was supposed to run 5-6 matches at the same time during the day. But now when we are at round 16 of Strasbourg I think i will be able to catch pretty much all of it.

All plays for Brussels still stands from yesterday. So you just have to check yesterdays analysis for the matches in Brussel.

Todays matches:

Giorgi - Bouchard: Giorgi really crushed Bartoli. There was no stream from Bouchards win today so we can't say for sure how the ankle is but it seemed to be a fairly easy win from what the scoreboard was saying. (I followed the match point by point). So we have to assume it's alright. Predicted hold is very very low. We should expect breaks. This one on paper has the features for a very swing and good match to trade.

Tatishvili - Niculescu: Tatishvili won over Garcia which was abit of an upset yesterday. Think Garcia didn't play that match well strategic at all. Today she plays against Niculescu who won in a 3 setter against Erakovic. Market is about right here @ 1.34. I'll just trade this in-play if anything comes up.

Cornet - Linette: Havent seen Linette play so i dont know really what kind of player she is. But her small amount of clay stats is very impressive. Lay Cornet for sure. Epic break fest? Possibility high.

Rogers - Scheepers: Dont know what to think... I'll leave this for mayby some in-play trades.

Torro-Flor - Pennetta: Panetta haven't looked good at all lately. But today we have value on her against Torro-Flor. As the odds say i'm expecting a swingy match. If I had to make a bet only i'd stick my money on Pennetta. (data play)

Doi - Hsieh: I'll be laying Hsieh, first time they play eachother on clay. This is likley to be closer than their previous meetings.

Davis - Hradecka: Expect alot of holds. Hradecka didnt loose a single game on serve yesterday i think. Her game revolvs alot around her serve. Very hard to win against when she is on. Forecast is saying high number of holds for both players this match. There is a small value on Davis.

Larsson - Razzano: Value on Razzano, Looking to back her in play. She seems abit "french". (having a hard time closing out matches) eg. giving away games.

I havent crunched numbers for the mens matches today.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Murray withdraws from French Open

I wish him a speedy recovery, he usually offers great value in-play!

Tuesday: Wierd prices...

Big day of tennis! 

As there is to many matches to handle today im just gonna focus on the ladies today in my trading. If i find any ridiculous in the mens ill let you know.

Brussels:
Arvidsson - Peng: Our best player is playing today, always fun. And they have a feed from that match so I'm definately going to monitor it. Arvidsson's form lately isn't the best but after crunching numbers, I find 1.50 very low on Peng. To much heart and no logic in this play? I think it's fine....

Zhang - Rybarikova: Data on this match is not good but last year rybarikova has 0-3 on clay. I doubt this is her favorite surface. Zhang have been doing pretty decent on the dirt. Numbers also say that Rybarikova shouldn't win this 67% of the time. A lay is probably worth some money.

Vandeweghe-Goerges: There is nothing wrong in laying Georges in this match. We shouldn't expect to many breaks in this match. Projected holds are well over tour average.

Kanepi - Cibulkova: Tough opening match for both girls. Draw haven't been nice to either of them. Odds is about right so i'm not taking a position from start. Trading this in-play. This one could definately swing.

Flipkens - Keys: Computer says that this match is way off in odds. Flipkens record last year is 1-3, Keys 4-2. If Keys serves well she should probably win this match.

Wickmayer - Hampton: Hampton is one of my favorite players but she hasn't been playing well lately and her record on clay is not good at all. Wickmayer's odds looks like value. Predicted hold on hampton is under 50% so we should expect Wickmayer to break her plenty.

Oprandi - Oudin: I find odds here to be pretty decent. This could turn out to be a really swingy match with alot of breaks. So you could pretty much lay who ever takes the lead.

Strasbourg: 

Bartoli - Giorgi: Upset alert, Bartoli haven't been good on the dirt. Computer also says this should be alot closer than SP says. Expect more breaks than normal.

Larsson - Cetkovska: If i where excited about Arvidssons chances today. Im not that keen on Larsson today. Cetkovska is coming back now from injury(?) she hasnt played in a while. So thats why i think Larsson is a favorite here. I'm just trading this in-play. I dont know if this is on stream but that would help alot to get a feel for how Cetkovska is performing. Predicted hold is very low. Could be a killer match to trade.

McHale - Davis: After crunching some numbers this 1.35 on McHale is very flawed. This is a lay, and if McHale takes the lead ill lay even more and then some more. Expect alot of breaks.

Cornet - Johansson: Break fest!

Beck - Hsieh: This one will probably feature alot of breaks aswell. Data is favoring Beck handsomly.

Doi - Pliskova: Wrong favorite here.

Here is some matches ill be looking to back the favorite if they trail.

Garcia, Razzano,

Mens:
Monfils is definately a lay.

Lay Stakhovsky.

Monday:Various Tournaments - Europe under water?

I woke up 11.00... Matches started 11.00 so havent been able to write anything about todays matches.

But I will link to my buddy Dan @ tennisratings.co.uk for todays matches. We more often than not pick out the same matches and players.

So todays not gonna be an epic post that usually comes with Mondays.

Now its raining alot now in whole Europe today. At the moment its raindelay in Strasbourg.

I have to get back to the action ....

 GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Week20 - Weekend!

No work for me this weekend. Ill probably hit the markets tomorrow though. But we have great weather here in sweden at the moment. Finally summer is here...

I'll see you tomorrow.

/Sammy

Friday:Rome - To much faith in the mens favs?

Upsets for today was definately Paire & Janowiz. Gulbis excellent performance against Nadal was epic aswell.

Im writing this now @ midnight. Opening price on Jankovic was very generous. Im backing her against Halep. Running numbers thru my computer says she should be a clear favorite. I mean if halep was supposed to play Na Li tomorrow. Li would be @ 1.40 maximum. So logically 1.80ish is big. It might steam in though. Dont know what SP will be.

You could lay Azarenka but im not super excited about it... key is serve here for both girls. We shouldn't expect many breaks in tomorrows matchup.
Same goes for Sharapova vs Errani. It pretty much up to Sharapova. Errani's strengths is her return game. If sharapova is holding serve well (errani not doing what shes best at). Then this could be a very quick match. But on the other side of the coin. We should expect alot of breaks on errani serve. If she holds comfortably this should be a sign of a possible upset.

Im like a like a like a ....... broken record about the next one but there is value backing S.Williams pre-match vs Navarro tomorrow. But ill try to get better odds in-play.

In the mens you could lay all the favorits and feel good about it.

Nadal have about the same opening price as in Madrid. We know how super that one was trading. So something similar to that one would be great.

Djoko also very low.

The downside on laying these guys is that even if they trail. Market pressure is always there, so you dont get that extra value you get on other players when market starts to overreact etc.

Same thing doesn't apply to Paire ofcourse, him being one of the most erratic players on ATP tour. If he plays same kind of tennis against granollers as he did today vs Delpo its GSM in no time. But you dont really know what will come from the young frenchman.

GL @ the markets. Remember this advices are for trading purposes. I couldn't care less who wins the match to be honest.

/Sammy

Thursday: Rome - Madness

3 things that wasn't normal yesterday:


1. Troicki loosing it after a lines call.


2. Murrays retire after winning second set. It was super bizarre.

3. Janowiz destroys his shirt after winning his match over Tsonga.

Ok so yesterday was yesterday, today we have more beautiful tennis and markets to attend to. Lets get to it...

Anderson and Dolgo i find under-valued. The rest of mens matches is well priced. And ill just trade any in-play edges i can find.

For the womens encounters i find.  S.Williams a abit under-valued (ill try to back in-play), Vinci aswell.

Lay: Navarro, Azarenka

Wrong favorite: Stosur (Back Kvitova)

Thats about it... GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Every wednesday I get this feeling...

Can you guess why? =)

Wed:Rome - Alot of epics

There was a lot of epics yesterday. Vesnina - Vinci springs into mind. Good match to trade was Berlocq - Wawrinka aswell. A match that wasn't on stream if I remember correctly that was good too: Petrova - Navarro. All of them going to 3 sets obviously. Love it!

Action starts in less than an hour so lets get down to business.

I'm just gonna throw in some intresting matches here today, due to time.

Gents:
Granollers - Murray: Lay murray, and lay even more if he goes off to a good start is my plan and take it on the chin if he totally dominates. eg. 6-1 6-2.

Ramos - Kohlschreiber: Back Kohlschreiber @ some point.

Tsonga - Janowicz: Laying Tsonga.

Anderson - Berdysch: Re-run on madrid match? Im laying Berdysch. He probably wins but unlikely to be a walk in the park.

Troicki - Gulbis: Lay Gulbis is an option.

Otherwise i think market has done a pretty decent job with the odds.

Ladies:

Im adding a swing section today:
Wickmayer - Lino: Im getting more like a 50/50 shot than wickmayer being fav. Im probably just gonna lay who ever has the lead.

Stephens - Bertens: This one could potentially be a really close match. Im just gonna swing trade this.

U.Radwanska - Morita: Very likely to swing.

Lay:
Muguruza - Sharapova: This is just a feeling nothing really to back it up but it could get ugly here for Sharapova. Its a cheap lay aswell. I hope its really windy today also.

Geroges - Azarenka: Like Sharapova this is not a clear lay. Could easily get ugly for Aza aswell.

GL @ the markets.

/Sammy

Tuesday:Rome - Say hello to...

If you thought there was plenty of matches yesterday. Say hello to todays card. (Im not gonna post it you have to look it up). It's alot anyway... 3 courts on stream, always alot of money rollin' around on these. I dont know what matches will be on the bigger venues tomorrow. Im just posting some matches with flawed SP's. There is probably no chance to trade all of them, even for a genius like me ;) So choose wisely. And it helps alot if u have a plan for each match before entering the market when alot of matches is going on.

Ohh by the way, anyone else getting burned by Makarovas retire? It was not a cheap experience. :O

Tuesdays battles

Mens:
Cilic - Anderson: Anderson under-valued.

Granollers - Murray: Lay Murray. This one could easily get alot tougher than odds say.

Volandri - Simon: Lay Simon.

Delpo - Kuznetsov: There is value backing Del Potro. But i seldom back at these odds from start. But if he trades higher im gonna look for action.

Dimitrov - Gasquet: Wrong favorite... leaning on Dimi.

Chardy - Lopez: If Lopez was 100% fit. This shuld be more of an 50/50 match. But now i dont know what to think.

Haas - Youzhny: Looking to back Haas @ some point in the match.

Zeballos - Verdasco: Verdasco abit under-valued. But you never know with the spaniard. Just gives away matches like its christmas eve sometimes.

Rosol - Troicki: When im writing this 1.95 is trading. Wouldnt surprise me if we see 1.80 just before the match. And that sounds just about right. Bucharest re-run?

Benneteau - Almagro: Almagro is under-valued. But very low odds here. Will get into the action if he trades higher.

Womens:
Kvitova - Lisicki: Kivitova might be best value today.

A.Radwanska - Halep: Wierdly high odds on Radwanska. Must be some type of form adjustment here from market. Back A.Radwanska @ some point during the match.

S.Williams - Robson: Robsons win against sister W might have boosted her stocks. Clear value on S.Williams. But as always looking for better odds than 1.11 before I get dirty.

Ivanonvic - U.Radwanska: Value is on Ivanovic.

Vesnina - Vinci: Lay Vinci and then add some more if Vinci starts better than the 2. Otherwise hedge and re-invest.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Monday:Rome

If i counted right we have 22 matches today. So it should be plenty of opportunities. Liquidity might be a problem in some matches. But its pretty easy to spot where it is and isn't. Just be a bit cautious, you might have to red @ wrong prices.

Im probably just gonna trade WTA matches, but it also depends where liquidity will be at. So there might be a couple of ATP in it today. We will have to see how the surface is playing out this week. The thin air and pretty fast clay in Madrid favored the very aggressive style of Raonic and Janowiz. I think Rome will play abit slower and they wont have that much advantage against the good grinding type of players. This is just a guess but we will have to see.

Mens:
Fognini - Seppi should be a very nice match to trade. I think market have the wrong favorite here but it really doesnt matter. You can probably go both ways here. Laying who ever has the lead.

Montanes - Klizan: Klizans odds here is to high. Im going to back him at some point in the match.

Giraldo - Janowicz: Wrong favorite. Im favoring Giraldo.

Kohl-Raonic: Raonic abit to high. I will lay. I really dont like trading big servers cause volatility and variance is extreme usually. But getting position on kohlschreibers serve and then moving some liaibility when he has held is good. So you can cover if he gets broken first.

I cant really understand that Malisse is so bad @ clay. His stats are like night and day clay vs hardcourt. I was abit surprised that market have taken note of this.

Stepanek - Starace: I dont know what to say, might be a very fun market. Computer says Stepanek to low. These 2 gentlemen is known as 2 match fixers. This is pretty much common knownledge and market will probably be abit crazy due to it when fear and greed kicks in.

Women:
 Cirstea - Morita: Last week they played and Morita had to retire after just 3 games. Dont know what that was about. Probably better to just leave it alone. Or back cirstea. Market will go crazy if there is a MTO.

Niculesu - Peng: High probability this will be a very nice match to trade. Odds are a little high on Niculescu.

Hsieh - Stosur: Lay Stosur

JJ - Pirnokova: Lay JJ

Makarova - Oudin: Lay Makarova


GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Edit: Forgot, Ramos to low aswell. Lay.

Sun.Week 19

So Madrid came to an end. I didn't watch the semi's or the finals. So i dont really have a clue what happend. To be honest I don't really care. I have traded some qualies for Rome next week with good results and really looking forward to a lucrative week.

I'm going through round 56 of next weeks tennis. Its a lot of matches. So i'll probably be up a couple of hours more today.

I got a comment on last post that said in swedish that I should do a "Question seminar". (dont know if its the correct translation) But if you want to ask any questions, just fire away and i'll try to answer them to my best ability.

Either put your questions in the comment section or send an e-mail to: betfairtennistrader@gmail.com

Sat.Madrid: Semi's

I hope you had a good day of trading yesterday. I didn't put a single minute on the markets yesterday. It's wierd for me not working when tennis is on. Especially on a weekday.

Im going to a birthday party today so I wont be able to trade anything today aswell. I usually dont trade later stages either (semi's - finals). When monday-thursday is so action packed and you really need to take a break sometimes and hangout with friends and girlfriend and family. But for you degenerates out there i'm gonna help you carving gold tonight. (hopefully)

Ive been reading up some on yesterdays action. Apperently Stan W. had some neck problems yesterday and thats probably why opening odds been abit skewed.

I would be backing Stan at some point depending if he looks fine. (medical timeouts can really ruin a good position in a matter of seconds) and laying Sharapova pre-match had been my initial moves.

Nadal & S.Williams is about right in SP's. Im looking to back both if they trade higher.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Fri-Madrid: Quarters

The good trading continues. To be honest predictions been pretty spot on this week. Bartoli yesterday got abit expensive in the end. She wasn't really close of making it competetive at any point. But rest of the matches yesterday makes up for it and plenty more. So it's all good.

Today its holidays in sweden and my girlfriend doesn't work. I doubt ill be trading any today, mayby ill join the action later on today but it depends on what we end up doing today. But i'll help you out where there is flaws in the market today and hopefully it helps how to plan your trading in various matches.

Liquidty is no where close to being a problem. But you must know that its really hard to beat the market if u trade short-term when markets is drained in $£€. There have been plenty of swing trading opportunities this week and it will most likely be opportunities today.

So lets get down to business:

Womens:

S.Williams lost 2 points on serve yesterday which is just crazy. Well above expectations. Today she is a 1.05-06 favorit against garrigues. And as crazy as it sounds is value backing this in my world. I would never back this though. But id definately look to back at higher odds. As long as market is stable (no MTO etc) you can pretty safely back williams if she starts off bad. Due to the high liquidity in the markets.

Errani's odds is to high. Id definately look to back Errani. Backing from start and then adding more if she starts bad is an option. But you have to be able to withstand a big loss if the shit hits the fan. Id probably not take a position from start and se how it develops and try to get position on Errani at some point and get a swing and then re-invest.

Ivanovic is under-valued against Kerber. About same approach as for Errani's match with this one.

Dont know the latest news about Kanepi and her MTO against Hantuchova. But Sharapova is to short if Kanepi is up to standards. Easy lay of Sharapova.

Mens:

Nishikori's odds is a tad high, but I'm not taking a position from the start. I'm favoring Special K though.

Murray - Berdysh: Dunno really what to say, Odds is about right. If i have to choose a side to lean on it would be murray. But probably i would just lay who ever has the lead through out the match. Not super likely one of them would win 6-2 6-2.

Wawrinka - Tsonga. Looking to back Wawrinka at some point in the match.

Nadal - Ferrer. Nadal been super solid this week and winning easily. This is the first matchup this week where Nadals odds is clearly to low. Lets hope Ferrer can bring it and make it competetive and not make it a re-run of what happened in Mexico this februrary

GL @ the Markets.

/Sammy

Thur-Madrid: Markets totally off?

As usual, tournaments starts to unravel from here on. But there is plenty of action and boy its alot of wierd prices especially on mens. Here in sweden its "red day". Every one "normal" isn't working so my mother expects me to attend a dinner at 4pm. Im not super excited but hey its family so I think I have to go.

Anyways... lets keep it simple and continue in yesterdays format. By the way. Was a crazy day of trading yesterday aswell. And i believe its gonna continue today. It certainly has big potential for upsets.

Womens:

Lisicki - Sharapova: SP is about right. But still odds is low and a lay isn't bad for trading purposes. As Maria express her claycourt experience "like a cow on ice". Thats why she has a hard time cruching her opponents. Which she certainly can do from time to time. Devestating for bankrolls 6-1 6-2 for example. Its not a great lay but i have a feeling this could be a intresting one if lisicki brings it.

S.Williams-Kirilenko: Dunno what to say. Probably about right this SP. Abit high mayby. :O
Probably gonna back Williams at some point if she is trailing.

Hantu-Kanepi: Backing Kanepi. Not from start. But im leaning on Kanepi for sure.

Makarova-Bartoli: Decent odds here. Not taking position initially, if i where to take a position id be on Bartol. Should swing this one.

Lepchenko - Errani: To high odds on Errani. This could be a wild one though.

Mens:

Here we go again like yesterday. Pre-match lays for today. (SP to low in a trading perspective)

Easy lays: Federer, Murray, Berdysch

Not so clearcut lays but still: Wawrinka, Tsonga, Ferrer, Nadal

Wrong favorite: Andujar ... Traver should in my world be 1.70ish favorite.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

Wed.Madrid - Should be a decent day of trading.

What a crazy day of tennis. Alot of favorites have had difficulties today. If you pick the right ones to trade its very hard to not make money on these matches.

Both Gasquet and Murray had problems aswell as Djokovic.

Anyways. This is the past.... Lets move on to wednesdays matches. As always i dont care who wins the match. As a trader on the markets this is not important.

Womens:

Im definately gonna lay Suarez and Azarenka. In my world these SP's are wrong. Suarez basically crushed Kanepi last week but i think its gonna be much tougher encounter this time.

Georges - Lepchenko should swing. Not taking a position initally there. Georges isn't the best frontrunner of all time so laying here is really easy if she takes first set for example. This match have good potential to swing loads.

Im not to sure about Mladen - Kiri... Id probably favor Kirilenko but im not happy backing at current price. Dunno really what to think about this match. I'll just trade the market.

Kerber - Kuznetsova. I'm not surprised if we see a SP of 1.70-75. For me 1.50-55 is more correct. So if thats the case im gonna "lean" on Kerber during the match. Im not gonna take a position from start.

Kvitova - Hantuchova. I'll only look to back Kvitova

Mens:

Alot of lays tomorrow in the mens. But here they are in chronological structure.

Berdysch, Monaco (easy lay), Tsonga, Nadal, Almagro, Wawrinka, Ferrer

Best lay tomorrow is probably Monaco. The otherones for me isnt that clear-cut. But im gonna base my trading on it, and take it from there. I'll also favor the WTA before the ATP. So we will see how many ATP matches i'll eventually trade.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

EDIT:

11.52: Yes Kanepi match is looking abit like i thought it would. Im hoping for a turnaround for Navarro now though. Should be somewhat likely. As long as Carla can keep it together. Kanepi is playing a highly aggressive style at the moment. And could easily start missing alot. its 6-3 *3-0 atm.

15.52: Not only me that thinks Monaco was to low yesterday night! Lets see how the match develops.

Tuesday-Alot of wrong priced matches?

So i had to go to the "besiktning" with my motorcycle today so im a bit late with going through matches today.

What sticks out directly is that i find Bartoli under-valued. Aswell Tipsarevic. So ill be trading infavor of these players. When odds are in those spans i usually dont take a position from start. It gets really iffy staking if the match doesnt develop in the favor for you.

Flipkens also under-valued. In my opinion.

Ohh ill be laying Gasquet & Murray from start today.

Thats all i have time to write for now. I might edit this post as the day moves along.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

EDIT: Youzhny undervalued aswell.

12:47: S.Williams-Lino: Not that im going to do it. But backing S.W has value. #sick

17.21: Wrong favorite in Kuznetsova - Petrova. In my world it should the otherway around. 

Madrid!

Hey! So its lovley monday again and alot of tennis. I was supposed to have the weekend off but i didnt know they start Madrid this early. So I was active some hours saturday & sunday.

At the moment im sitting on a huge amount on Cornet. I built a green during 1st set and took a lay for all of it after the first break in 2nd set. Doesnt look to bright though this match. But soon enough it suddenly happens.

Other than that. Mladenovic winning against Espinosa wasn't really something. That suprised me.

Not that many WTA matches today. But im going to lay Radwanska for sure pre-match. Not that Robson have been playing well lately. But it could easily be a trade friendly match than the pre-match odds say. Basically what 1.15 means is that Radwanska should win ~83% of points. 83% of games and 83% of sets. Not super likely. It takes some trading though. Its not a straight punt to make money on this.

Haven't gotten involved in Stosur vs Navarro. I really hate these high liquidity matches. The margins are so small. And very often they are very effecient = Hard to make money.

GL @ the markets

/Sammy

EDIT:

Well Robson is performing well. I didnt see her winning in 2 straight sets though. Its not over yet though but it doesnt look to well for a turnaround here. Id love one though.

Midnight preperations

So its almost midnight and im going thru tomorrows matches. I was a bit surprised that the Quals matches for Madrid is already up on Betfair. Probably wont be any liquidity at all at these markets. But its a nice trend. I'd love to see more action on these types of matches. Especially when the weekend is getting closer and the current weeks tournament is coming to an end.

Today was a good day of trading. Alot matches traded very well with big swings. It should be impossible to loose money basically if a match swings back and forth. It happens ofcourse but in general if you find yourself loosing alot in matches that goes to 3 sets. You should really consider thinking about the way you trade.

If a match goes to 3 sets im very often making money. Who wins the match is something i really dont bother with.

I saw some pictures from madrid. It seems like they wont color the clay blue this year. The response from the players where not anything close to good last year. Except for Verdasco that seems to love it? =) GL /Sammy

First post @ Blogger

First blogg post on blogger. I used to blogg @ tumblr. Even though i find it very attractive. I think blogger is better for me and writing about trading and gambling in general. It reaches a broader audience.

English isn't my native language so there will probably be alot of grammar errors & spelling errors.

I'll be writing about mostly tennis in general and trading on tennis.

There is alot of info @ http://betfairtennistrader.tumblr.com. It's written mostly in swedish, but there is a translation widget that does a decent job of translating. It covers from the time i started trading last year.

GL

/Sammy